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"In my evaluation Mohammed Deif was indeed killed"
 

Avi Melamed A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding

Below is the ENGLISH version of the HEBREW article I sent out earlier today. To read the Hebrew version please click here..

You can read this on my blog as well by clicking here...

 August 21, 2014


Was the Military Supreme Commander of the
Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades Killed?
 


At the time this report is being written, the fate of Mohammed Deif, the Supreme Commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qaasam Brigades, who was targeted by an Israeli air raid on Tuesday night, August 19th, is yet unknown. Hamas’ formal spokesman announced that Israel’s attempt to kill Deif failed. On the other hand, a foreign news network quoted Israeli intelligence sources who argue that Deif was killed. A similar argument was made by some Palestinian sources as well.

Perpetrating such an attack requires two mandatory conditions. One is up to date excellent, highly reliable operational intelligence in real time. The second condition is that the decision makers evaluate that the potential benefit of such an act compensates its potentially counter-productive ramifications. In 1992 Israeli helicopters killed Abbas Al-Musawi, the Secretary General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, together with his wife and son. In 2002, an Israeli jet dropped a one ton bomb on a house in the Gaza Strip, killing Salah Sheahade, the Supreme Military Leader of the Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades, together with fourteen other people including children. Israel carried out these attacks knowing that it would generate international condemnation, and that it would even lead to legal actions against Israel. Yet, this did not deter Israel from carrying out the attacks just the same. Deif's case falls into that category as well.

Was Deif killed?

To answer that question we should pay attention to a couple of things:

First, there are indicators that suggest that Deif was associated with the house that was bombed. The fact that Deif's wife, son and daughter were killed in the attack and the magnitude of the bombs used, indicate that the house was not the major target. It is likely to assume that the target was beneath the house - apparently a major command bunker. Moreover, the fact that among the dead reportedly was Hamas' most senior rocket apparatus commander. These facts indicate that it is very likely that Deif was very much associated with that specific location. The fact that the attack took place means that there was very good intelligence indicating Deif was in– or beneath - the house.

Second, though formally admitting that the air raid was targeting Deif, Israel published no formal announcement regarding what happened to him. The Israeli position stems in my opinion from two reasons: One-to protect Intelligence methods and sources deployed by Israel for the gathering of both operational intelligence prior to the attack and intelligence regarding the outcome of the attack; Two, to enable Hamas maneuvering space.

What is the maneuvering space Hamas needs and why is Israel interested in providing Hamas with such space?

Had a formal announcement been made, either by Israel or Hamas, confirming Deif's death, Hamas would have to retaliate on a much larger scale compared to the scale of attacks they have launched thus far. At this point, such a retaliation is counterproductive to Hamas' interests. Though the truce collapsed and fire resumed in the last days, both sides have an interest to pursue the negotiating channel and to avoid further escalation that will spin out of control. Therefore, keeping the fate of Deif following the attack vague, enables Hamas a larger maneuvering space. In a possible context it should be mentioned that on the very day following the attack, Hamas announced it had launched a shore to sea missile targeting an Israeli gas platform in the Mediterranean Sea. Hamas' announcement was denied by Israel. Yet, the fact Hamas chose that timing to publish the announcement regarding a military operation that has substantial ramifications and is totally different in comparison to the military characteristics of the round thus far, may indicate the attempt by Hamas to "retaliate" (though it did not take place) without generating further escalation. In other words - to create the larger maneuvering space.

Third, in two cases Palestinian speakers - either by mistake or deliberately - described Deif as "Shahid" meaning a Martyr.

Fourth, Hamas' formal spokesman announced that "Deif will lead the army who will liberate the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem." Such a declaration resembles the declaration made by Al-Qaeda following the killing of Osama Bin Ladin.

Evaluation:

In my evaluation Mohammed Deif was indeed killed.

As of now, it is likely that both Israel and Hamas will keep a policy of vagueness regarding the fate of Deif. It is possible that sometime in the future Hamas will formally announce Deif's death, perhaps it will be presented in the context of "following a severe injury."

Deif's biography has an interesting yet less known component - Deif had an artistic character. In his days as an active member of the Muslim Brotherhood Student Union in the Islamic University in the Gaza Strip, Deif was involved in directing and playing in a theatre he established in the Gaza Strip. His artistic affiliation was manifested later on in some theater plays produced by Hamas. Deif was playing the role of an Israeli Jewish settler.

It seems as if Deif has left the stage.
 

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Avi Melamed

Avi Melamed is an Israeli Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst, and lecturer specializing in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world and their impact on Israel and the region.

Former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs, former intelligence official and educator, Avi is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Regional Expert and lecturer specializing in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world and their impact on Israel and the region.

Avi has just been nominated the Fellow of Middle East Security and Affairs for the Eisenhower Institute in Washington, DC and Gettysburg Pennsylvania where among other responsibilities he leads a year-long program entitled Inside the Middle East – Intelligence Perspectives, designed to ensure that the next generation to be in positions of influence in the United States will have a more intimate understanding of the Middle East and will apply methods of critical thinking regarding Middle East Affairs in a way that will result in a more accurate reading the Middle East reality and which will better serve the West’s interest.

Fluent in Arabic and Israeli- Jew with a unique understanding of Arab society and culture, Avi spent many years operating in Arab cities and communities, often in high-risk positions at sensitive times.

He held various Intelligence and field positions on behalf of the Israeli Defense Forces, Israeli government agencies working with Israel's intelligence agencies. During the first Intifada he was appointed the youngest-ever Deputy Advisor on Arab affairs to the Mayor of Jerusalem, Teddy Kollek, and later he served in the Ehud Olmert administration as Senior Advisor. He was instrumental in developing Israeli policy, conducting delicate missions in and around Jerusalem and represented the city in local and international forums.

After retiring from the Intelligence and Public sector, Avi went to teach High School and was an educator for seven years.

Avi’s unique experience, outstanding analytical abilities, profound understanding of the Arab world and the Arabic language - coupled with direct access to sources, resources and networks throughout the Arab world and intimate connections with local and regional intelligence resources has allowed him to keep his finger on the pulse on the Arab world that has resulted in a proven record of foreseeing the evolution of events as well as their impact on a local and regional level.

In his work as an analyst Avi provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets, academic institutions as well as a wide variety of organizations and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East affairs. His expertise includes: The Arab awakening; Arab perspectives on Israel; Emerging challenges and opportunities in the Middle East; Evolving forces in the region and their current and future impact on Israel’s strategic environment, etc.

Avi is also the founder and creator of Feenjan – Israel speaks Arabic, a non-profit initiative which presents contemporary Israeli society and culture to the Arab world in Arabic, and serves as an online platform for Israelis and Arabs to discover and discuss issues of common interest.

In the private sector Avi facilitates relationships between Israeli and international firms and potential partners in the Arab world.

Through all of Avi’s efforts, as a speaker, an analyst, a writer, and an entrepreneur, he is a bridge builder. He dedicates himself to enhancing the Arabic, English and Hebrew speaking audience’s comprehensive understanding of the Middle East and of each other.

Avi’s unique experience, outstanding analytical abilities, profound understanding of the Arab world and the Arabic language coupled with direct access to sources, resources and networks throughout the Arab world and intimate connections with local and regional intelligence resources has allowed him to keep his finger on the pulse on the Arab world that has resulted in a proven record of foreseeing the evolution of events as well as their impact on a local and regional level.

Publications:

Separate and Unequal - Israel's rule in East Jerusalem, Harvard University Press, 1999;

Ubrusi – (Novel), Israel, 2010

Original Articles and Videos:

www.avimelamed.wordpress.com,

Avi's videos in Arabic can be seen at www.feenjan.com

Sample Media Appearances:

ABC News, Al-Jazeera Arabic, Al-Jazeera English, Al-Hurra, BBC, BBC Arabic, Bloomberg, Elaph, Ha'aretz Israel, I-24 News, Israel Radio, Los Angeles Times; NBC, The New Yorker, The Sydney Morning Herald; Toronto Star, TVE Spain, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Yediot Aharonot Israel, and a variety of European newspapers and news agencies.

Languages:                

Fluent in Hebrew, Arabic and English

Sample Client List:

AIPAC; American Israel Joint Distribution Committee; American Jewish Committee; American University; Birthright; Center for Israel and Jewish Affairs; Eisenhower Institute; Foreign Diplomats and Embassies; Friends of the IDF; Georgetown University; Harry and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation; Herzeliya Interdisciplinary Center; Hillel; Israel Border Police Senior Command ; Israel Embassy; Israel Defense Forces; Israel Ministry of Defense; Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Israel Police; Israel Prison Authority; Israeli Colleges: Jewish Agency For Israel; Jewish Council for Public Affairs; Jewish Community Relations Council; Jerusalem Foundation; Jewish Federations of North America; Jewish National Fund; Hillel; Katedra – Network of Israeli Colleges; Kenes Tours; Machon Avshalom; Keren Hayesod; MASA; Ophir Tours; Peres Center for Peace; Phillips Academy – Andover; Princeton University; The Sydney Morning Herald; The Israel Project; Tufts University; University of California, Berkeley; the United States Army; Wikistrat; World Bank; World Presidents Organization, and Young Presidents Organization, etc.

To Contact Avi:

avi.yanshuf@gmail.com

+972- 505–40-99-05

Websites:

www.avimelamed.com

www.avimelamed.wordpress.com

www.feenjan.com

http://il.linkedin.com/in/avimelamed/

@avimelamed

+972-505-40-99-05

avi.yanshuf@gmail.com

www.avimelamed.com

http://avimelamed.wordpress.com/

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