We just published the third set of papers, this time focused on Conflict and Violence targets for the post-2015 development agenda.
In groundbreaking research, the paper finds that the costs of violence worldwide are $9.5 trillion or 11% of global GDP. These finds and possible post-2015 targets were just reported on Reuters and in news outletsthroughouttheworld.
These costs are not mostly due to civil war, which costs perhaps $170bn annually. Rather, it is domestic violence against children and women, which costs more than $8 trillion each year. Each year, 15% of all children experience what the UN categorizes as severe physical punishment. Each year, 28% of all women in Sub-Saharan Africa report intimate partner violence, which includes being slapped, pushed, shoved, kicked, choked, burnt on purpose and forced to have sex.
Our research finds that the smartest target to redress conflict and violence is:
Reduce assaults. Evidence is limited, but one UK pilot study found that for every dollar spent the world can gain $17.
Conflict and Violence Targets
Benefit for Every Dollar Spent
Reduce assaults.
$17
Eliminate severe physical violence as a method of child discipline.
$11
By 2030, reduce the number of countries experiencing large scale wars (1000+ deaths) to 3 or fewer and the
number of countries experiencing small scale wars (>1000 deaths) to 14.
$5
Improve policing.
Likely To Be High
Eliminate all forms of violence against women and girls.
Likely To Be High
We should be careful in interpreting the benefits and costs of these targets. There is limited evidence in general and these results are based on a handful of case studies. However, it is clear that violence, particularly in the home, is very costly.
You can read the all the reports at www.post2015consensus.com/conflictandviolence
Here, Copenhagen Consensus Center has released its research on Conflict and Violence targets for the post-2015 agenda. Anke Hoeffler, Research Officer at University of Oxford and James Fearon, Professor of Political Science at Stanford write the main report, peer-reviewed in Perspective papers by S. Brock Blomberg, Professor at Claremont McKenna College and Rodrigo R. Soares, Professor at Sao Paulo School of Economics. Additionally, NGOs and stakeholders such as Cure Violence, Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum, Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, and Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom present Viewpoint papers concerning Hoeffler and Fearon’s analysis.
Best regards,
Bjorn Lomborg
PhD and Adjunct Professor
President of Copenhagen Consensus Center
PS. The Post-2015 Consensus project brings together more than 50 top economists, NGOs, international agencies and businesses to identify the targets with the greatest benefit-to-cost ratio for the next set of UN development goals. If you have questions about the project, send an email to Research Project Manager Brad Wong by replying to this email.
