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News and Info from the team at Loney Financial #3 - June 2014
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For further information on Loney Financial services please visit our website at www.loneyfinancial.com

DAN'S DIALOGUE

Our changing financial world, creates changing financial products. Products that, years ago, were priced in a financial market at 5% interest rates have disappeared as the plummeting interest rates fell to all-time lows.

One of the most innovative concepts and products we have seen in the last decade has been the issue of guaranteed minimum benefit withdrawal contracts. Simply put, you get a guaranteed amount of investment return which guarantees a minimum amount of income for life.
When these products were priced, the markets were sustaining a 5% return for interest rates, now interest rates are less than 50% of what they once were and, therefore, we no longer see those types of guarantees.

One company last year went from the bottom quartile of investment fund deposits to number two overall simply because while everybody had been exiting the GMWB market, this company held on in hopes of gaining market share. They were bang on and ended up in the number 2 place for overall investment segregated fund deposits. The store will soon close and they are not even advertising this product as they know it will top up to the monthly contributions and then they will remove the product from the retail financial marketplace.

If you would like to benefit from the security and peace of mind of having a minimum of 5% growth no matter what and a guaranteed lifetime income, contact us and we will explain the details as long as the product is available. 

Sometimes, we look back on contracts and products that we have been very familiar with and say ”Why didn't we buy more of that?” This I believe is one of those products.
Dan Loney
The stock market is a mechanism for transferring money
from the impatient to the patient."
~  Warren Buffet  ~

DAN'S BLOG

Experts verses Models

Today as we continue to grow into the media age we are confronted with a ocean of opinions and experts who make predictions in the financial arena. These experts and opinions are encouraged and needed by the networks of media because without opinion and controversy they lose listener audience. So lets look at some interesting facts about experts and opinions.

We have a tendency to love experts who make predictions because once we decide which prediction we like it will then transfer the burden of decision making to the expert. We then tend to become loyalists until our expert is proven wrong and then we go back to the drawing board of looking for a new prediction through a new leader.

A study was made of expert predictions between the years 1998 and 2012. All together there was 6582 predictions made by 68 different financial guru's. The interesting thing is that the accuracy rate was just 47% which means you would have had a better result with a coin toss. I remember 20 years ago on a major evening night show a competition between a Wall Street Stock Broker, a class of fifth graders and a chimpanzee who could produce the best results over a period of time. First place went to the kids, second to he chimpanzee and third to the stock broker. I felt sorry for him but there is an interesting slant to this story of why the kids won. The only companies they knew were Mattel, Lego, Tonka and other toy companies so they bought those stocks and did very well. The monkey was simply throwing darts at the stock page for his selection and the stock broker purchased stock based on his predictions of which stocks would do well.

So if experts don't have the answer more than 50% of the time who does? The answer lies in models. There was an amazing study that of 136 different areas from medicine to finance that models out performed the experts 94% of the time. This is astounding but lets think about this for a minute. Lets say we decided to open a coffee shop in downtown Langley and I thought we need experience and advice. We have two options, first to hire an expert or second to buy a Tim Hortons franchise (Model). I have only seen one Tim Hortons go out of business and that was 20 years ago so the argument here is that when the model is successful and you stick with the model your chance of success is much higher.

So how do we apply this to investing? For over ten years I have been looking for evidence of a financial model that is 3000 years old. I found the model but I could not find the proof. I had travelled to Boston to speak to Fidelity Investments, Toronto to speak with managers that manage billions of dollars and no one could give me the answers to my questions pertaining to my quest of the perfect model. Then last year, Bingo! I discovered a professor that proved my suspicion true and back tested the model over 40 years. I would have been much more successful in my own portfolio and my clients portfolio if I had followed this model. As a matter of fact in the last 10 years alone the model out performed the S&P 500 index 2-1.

Next post: the theory and results behind the 7 asset allocation portfolio. Where I discovered it and how I came across the proof of the model.

Read More >
 

CLIENT NEWS

On July 1st 2014, Canada’s Anti-Spam Law (CASL) enters into force. This new legislation will affect any business that promotes their products/services electronically via email, social media or instant messaging.
 
Rest assured, Loney Financial Corporation are fully committed to ensuring we are 100% compliant and have in fact now implemented produres to ensure we meet the new legislation in place from next Tuesday on Canada Day.

So what is CASL and how will it affect your business? 
CASL targets any electronic communication that could be considered to “encourage participation in a commercial activity.” Any email, text message, instant message (IM) and messages sent through social networks that have a commercial aspect will be considered to be a Commercial Electronic Message (CEM), and will require express or implied consent.
 
To learn more about CASL The CFIB (Canadian Federation of Independent Business) has created a tip sheet for small businesses to help them get ready for the changes at the following link http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6267-does-your-business-send-emails-new-rules-in-effect-july-1st-2014.html

Further information can be obtained here at the official government website: http://fightspam.gc.ca/eic/site/030.nsf/eng/home
 
If you have any concerns as to how this affects your relationship with Loney Financial please email us at info@loneyfinanical.com or Tel: 604.534.6003
 

ASK THE EXPERT - DAN LONEY
















Ask The Expert is a monthly column which addresses important areas in our lives in which experts teach us the 7 most vital questions to ask when making important life decisions in different areas.

This month Dan looks at what are the 7 most important questions when setting goals:

1. What is my mission? 2. What is my motivation? 3. What is my method? 4. How will I measure my progress? 5. How much time will I invest in this goal? 6. How much money do I need? 7. Who is my mentor?

 

SEVEN VITAL QUESTIONS

When it comes to goals, here is the process that I developed years ago and it has been very helpful in reaching my goals over the years. There are seven steps to thoroughly organizing the process in developing your goals.

Mission: It is really important to understand what your goal looks like, feels like, sounds like and how reaching that goal will impact your life. It is also helpful to give the mission a tag line like, “Healthy and Bursting with Energy!” Every morning Komatsu in Japan would shout out as a team “Kill the Cat” meaning they were working to overtake Caterpillar in heavy iron equipment sales..


Motivation: Many times you can get discouraged as great goals, at times, can be very hard. In working to save abandoned children, I have had many discouragements. When I feel discouraged, I walk in my closet and I have a picture of a little girl at our orphanage in Guatemala. Just one look and it reminds me of why I do what I do and nothing, absolutely nothing, is going to stop me. We need to find the Why of what we do to motivate us through the tough times.


Method: This is the how I am going to do what I am going to do. Work smarter and harder using the best method and strategy you can. Who does this better than anyone? See the 7th M for the secret.


Measure: It is really important to understand how you are going to measure and what you are going to measure. Read the book “Moneyball” or watch the movie and you will learn it’s not all about home runs. When the Oakland A’s found what was really important, it gave them one of the most successful baseball teams with the lowest payroll. Activity is often important to measure as well as results.


Minutes: How much time is this goal going to require. Be realistic. We often over-estimate what we can accomplish in one year but underestimate what we can achieve in 5 years. Learn the power of a half hour to accomplish goals. One author I read wrote his book over 18 months writing just 30 minutes every day. Think of what you could do with 30 minutes every day - learn Spanish, workout, write a book, learn a software program.


Money: How much is the cost for the goal going to be? Where do you get this money, what resources to do you have. Jesus said “Before you build a tower, count the cost!”


Mentor: This is really important because it can save you all kinds of time and mistakes. Who has already achieved your goal or could help you understand your challenges and what lies ahead. If you want to solve a legal problem, find an old successful lawyer J, Finances?  then find an old successful financial consultant, business? a successful experienced business person. Find a mentor and learn from them and save yourself time and money.
 

FINANCIAL NEWS IN CANADA

A breakdown of the financial services industry
 

The Canadian financial services industry serves many types of investors.

Three common groups are private clients, mass affluent clients and average retail clients, according to a recently released infographic (see below) by H2 Central. It finds private investors are often those people or groups who have assets of $1 million or more, while mass affluent investors have up to $1 million and retail clients have around $100,000 and up.

Each group can access the stock market though common products such as equities, bonds, mutual funds and ETFs. But people can also invest through insurance products and other complex instruments—depending on their needs and financial literacy levels.

As a result, says H2 Central, there are a large number of product manufacturers, brokerages, financial professionals and regulators across the country. The problem, however, is this makes it hard for people to understand how the market works, as well as how the different kinds of financial professionals are related.

To help, the group’s created an infographic that offers a bird’s eye view of Canada’s financial industry. It looks at both the insurance and investment segments, and identifies the different participants of each using colour coding.

Check out the infographic below or click here to view a pdf version.

2014 Prediction: The Next Great Bubble Bursts

The greatest confluence of down-cycles since the 1930s is just ahead.

The next great bubble will bursts in 2014. Harry outlines what will happen each quarter of 2014.

Listen and watch Harry Dent as he debates these issues.

 

WHAT'S DAN READING?


Extreme Productivity: Boost Your Results, Reduce Your Hours.
by Robert C. Pozen

Michael Pozen is known for his extreme productivity, a reputation that prompted the writing of this book. The former head of Fidelity Investments and a member of various boards, his productivity came from fundamentals that he developed in his personal and business life.

Some of this advice is grassroots common sense like understanding the results that you're trying to achieve in an organization. He is also one that gives attention to detail, measuring success over a 12 month period, and what are the main activities that will achieve this?
In order to extract the many valuable ideas in this book, I had to reread the information to consider how I might apply this to my life on a day-to-day basis. I would suggest, if you read this book, to keep a journal and make notes of the challenging questions that Pozen asks you. 

One key concept of the book is to focus on results rather than focus on hours of labor and activity. I highly recommend this book for anyone that is looking to increase the efficiency and productivity in their day-to-day lives.

Read More >
 
Click here to see the story of a 35 year dream come true and learn about Loney Financial’s support of rescuing homeless children in Guatemala. Thank you to all the clients and associates that have helped to make this a reality.

COOKING WITH DENISE

Denise Bailey our Client Services Coordinator brings you a delicious monthly recipe from her renowned portfolio.  


TEX-MEX CHICKEN AND RICE BAKE.

By: Campbell's
Serves: 4
So, I was actually trying another crockpot recipe for this months newsletter - To Die For Crock Pot Roast. 

Well, the roast was good but it wasn't to die for in my opinion soooo, I decided to go with a tried and true family favourite from Campbell's Soup.

I have made this many times... successfully.... and my family loves it. It's quick, easy with lots of flavour. Hope you try it!
Denise.

PREP TIME: 10mins
COOK TIME: 45mins

Ingredients:
  • 1 can (10oz/284ml) Campbell's Condensed Low Fat Cream of Chicken Soup.
  • 1 empty soup can (10oz/284ml) of 1% milk.
  • 3/4 cup (175ml) of uncooked regular long-grain white rice.
  • 1½ tsp (7ml) of chilli powder.
  • 1½ cups (375ml) of a mixture of red and green pepper strips and chopped onion.
  • 1/2 cup (125ml) of frozen corn.
  • 4 (1lb/500gm) of boneless, skinless, chicken breast halves.
  • 1/2 cup (125ml) of shredded Tex Mex cheese (or Cheddar and Monterey Jack mixture).
Directions
  1. Mix soup, milk, rice and chilli powder in shallow 2qt (2L) baking dish. Spread evenly with vegetables.
  2. Top with chicken. Sprinkle chicken with cheese and additional chilli powder, if desired. Cover.
  3. Bake at 400F (200C) until chicken is cooked through and rice is tender - about 45 minutes. Remove cover and broil until cheese is golden and bubbly - about 3 minutes. Remove chicken and stir rice before serving.

Happy Canada Day to all our Clients, Friends and Family

Solutions Magazine


Invest In Yourself. 

From personal well-being to finance make yourself a priority.



Read More (PDF) >

Articles


The Bond Trap by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future the media almost completely ignored one of the most chilling pieces of financial news that I have ever seen.

Read More >

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