SCC eBulletin - Summer Recess

July 2, 2014, Volume 47, Issue 1

Salem City Club is taking a Summer Break.
Friday programs will resume in September.

2014 ANNUAL MEETING:

During the May 14 Annual Meeting, members enjoyed a social hour followed by a review of the City Club budget, a summary of By-Law changes, election of Governors and Officers for 2013-14, and a “Wisdom of Crowds” decision making activity.

The 2014-15 Board of Directors:

President
Cindy Condon, Term Expires 6/15

Vice President Program Committee
John Adams,Term Expires 6/15

Vice President Membership Committee
Allan Pollock, Term Expires 6/15

Treasurer
Lloyd Chapman, Term Expires 6/15

Past President
Russ Beaton, Term Expires 6/15

Governors:
Steve Sansone, Term Expires 6/16
Bob Martin, Term Expires 6/15
Barbara Barrie, Term Expires 6/16
Edd LeSage, Term Expires 6/15
Evann Remington, Term Expires 6/17
Larry Young, Term Expires 6/17

Sincere thanks to outgoing Board members:

Jan Margosian,Tom Golden, and Petra Berger.

Salem City Club appreciates your service!

2014-15 Program Committee

The 2014-15 Program Committee is hard at work planning programs for our 47th season. Speakers and topics for our early fall programs will be announced in the August eBulletin. Members of the committee:

John Adams, Chair; Jan Margosian, Sherryll Hoar, Leslie Zeigen, Larry Young, Russ Beaton, Edd LaSage, John Hofer, Barbara Barrie, Bob Zeigen, Raquel Moore Green, Bill Mainwaring, Bob Martin, Carla Mikkelson, Hans West.

Making Predictions:
The Wisdom of Crowds

After the business meeting, members enjoyed a "Wisdom of Crowds" decision-making exercise. Based on James Surowiecki’s book, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, (2005), the theory argues that large groups are smarter than the elite few in problem solving, innovating, making wise decisions, and even predicting the future. An summary of Surowiecki's theory can be read here.

To test the theory, at the annual meeting, we presented members with 5 questions drawn from City Club programs the past two years.

After lively discussion of the questions, here is what your fellow members predicted:

Q1. What is the probability that a major earthquake will occur off the coast of Oregon by 2019? Group prediction: 36%

Q2. What is the probability that Cover Oregon will be able to accept and process on-line insurance application by November 1, 2014? Group prediction: 41%

Q3. What is the probability that at least on half of Salem's residents will use electricity delivered by smart grid technology to their home by December 31, 2014? Group prediction: 44%

Q4. What is the probability recreational marijuana use will be legal in the state of Oregon by December 31, 2019? Group prediction: 85%

What is the probability a third bridge for vehicle traffic over the Willamette River in Salem will be designed, funded and approved for building by December 31, 2020? Group prediction: 20%

How accurate are the predictions? Since we're predicting the future, there are no correct answers. We'll keep the results so we can check back to see how accurate the collective wisdom of this "crowd" is.

Why this exercise? Well, it was great fun! And the Wisdom of Crowds thesis is consistent with the foundation ideas of Salem City Club. We believe in the power of individual opinion and the free exercise of informed intellect. We have faith that discussion and debate create a knowledgeable public and promote wise democracy and thus a better community and society. We have faith in our reason as individuals and in our collective wisdom.

* * * * *

Special thanks to all who made the annual meeting a great success: the Annual Meeting Committee (Cindy Condon, Jan Margosian and Edd LaSage); Wandering Aengus CiderWorks and EZ Orchards for providing tastings of fine ciders; the staff of Spire Management; Loustic Catering; the staff of Willamette Heritage Center at the Mill; and to our very generous members, business partners and contributors for their support of Salem City Club. And, of course, thanks to Raymond Dukes, Big Picture Productions, for taping our Friday programs for future broadcast on CCTV.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR!

Salem City Club programs will resume in September. Additional Fall program information will be appear in the August eBulletin.