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June 2016

ASK A CRIMINOLOGIST

Join us for the first "Ask a Criminologist" Congressional Roundtable, which will feature new research commissioned by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) on the increased homicide rates in 2015. Richard Rosenfeld, author of the report, will join Nancy La Vigne, Chair of CJRA, and Tom Jackman, Washington Post reporter, on July 7 at 1:30 p.m. in Washington, DC. RSVP today!

CONGRESSIONAL UPDATE

The FY 2017 Appropriations process continued this month with the Senate attempting to advance the Justice Department funding bill on the floor. Progress on the bill stalled due to failure to reach an agreement on a series of proposed policy amendments regarding whether individuals on government terrorist watch lists should be able to purchase guns. The current fiscal year ends on September 30, and it is widely expected that Congress will pass a “continuing resolution” at the current year funding levels prior to that date to defer final action on appropriations bills until after the November elections.

EXPERT Q&A
Each month, CJRA highlights a recent study published by one of our experts. This month, CJRA promoted Documenting and Explaining the 2015 Homicide Rise: Research Directions by Richard Rosenfeld, Professor of Criminal Justice at the University of Missouri - St. Louis.

What prompted your interest in researching this topic?

As a criminologist, my primary area of research interest is the conditions associated with changing crime rates over time. Reports of the abrupt rise in homicide during 2015 naturally caught my attention. I was asked by the National Institute of Justice to prepare a paper examining the homicide increase and outlining directions for research on the causes of the upturn.

How does this increase compare to previous years?

The increase in 2015 was nearly unprecedented, at least among the 56 large cities that I looked at. One has to go back to the crime increases of the late 1960s or late 1980s for homicide increases as large as those in 2015.

What are the plausible reasons for the increase in 2015?

I present three plausible candidates for explaining the big-city homicide increase in 2015: declining imprisonment rates resulting in more ex-prisoners returning home; the heroin epidemic that resulted in the expansion of illicit drug markets; and a "Ferguson effect" that caused the police to withdraw from full engagement in their enforcement duties or inflamed police-community relations in the disadvantaged areas of large cities.

Was there anything that surprised you?

I was surprised most by how large and precipitous the rise in homicide was in a single year, especially after years of declining homicide rates across the country.

IN THE NEWS

Murder rate spike could be 'Ferguson Effect', DOJ study

"We are in the midst of a very abrupt, precipitous and large crime increase." - Richard Rosenfield, CJRA Expert

Orlando shooting suspect bought guns within week of attack

"There needs to be a focus on identifying groups who are vulnerable to getting pulled into radical groups." - Dan Mears, CJRA Expert

Why 'lone wolf' attacks are hard to prevent

"Half the violent crime goes unsolved each year, including more than a third of the homicides." - Scott Decker, CJRA Expert

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