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Saturday, July 9, 2016

Readers, 

FPRIIn the coming weeks, we will be compiling our Fall calendar for events in Philadelphia, the Main Line, Princeton, New York City, and Washington, DC as well as for podcasts accessible anywhere; we have many good ideas but we welcome yours as well for speakers you would like to hear and topics you would like to see addressed. We are always experimenting with new formats and we welcome your suggestions, which can be sent to fpri@fpri.org. As customary in our weekly insights, we share with you below the week's essays, citations in the media, and other announcements. -- Alan Luxenberg, President

New Publications


SmokeWhat Should We Make Of The Islamic State’s Ramadan Wave Of Violence?
Clint Watts, Robert A. Fox Fellow, FPRI
Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog, July 5, 2016

"The Islamic State has taken the final week of Ramadan to make a big statement: “We will not go quietly.” In the last seven days the terror group has lashed out in an unprecedented wave of suicide bombings and other attacks around the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia."


Adnan Abidi | ReutersBangladesh's Homegrown Problem
Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow, FPRI
Ali Riaz, Professor of Politics and Government, Illinois State University
Foreign Affairs, July 6 2016

"The Islamic State (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for much of the bloodshed [in Bangladesh]. The group’s formal claim aside, it is not entirely clear whether it masterminded the attacks. What is clear, however, is that the government of Sheikh Hasina Wajed has continued to deny that the terrorist group has a presence in her country at all."


Ahmad al-Rubaye via Getty ImagesHorrific ISIS Attacks During Ramadan Disguise a Retreating and Fracturing Terror Group
Clint Watts, Robert A. Fox Fellow, FPRI
WorldPost on Huffington Post, July 6, 2016

"The world should also brace for continuing waves of suicide attacks and hostage-taking assaults...With so many foreign fighters unable to return home, ISIS will use every last devotee to inflict as many casualties as possible"


Georgia NATO AspriationsGeorgia’s NATO Aspirations: Rhetoric and Reality
Col. Robert E. Hamilton, Dept. of National Security and Strategy, U.S. Army War College
FPRI E-Notes, July 2016

"Georgia is not likely to be admitted to NATO in the near future and Tbilisi’s westward course is not irreversible. These facts are regrettable, since Georgia has done more than enough to qualify for Alliance membership, and since most Georgians do see themselves as belonging to the European family of nations."


Amphibious LandingRetreating Ashore: The Flaws of Offshore Balancing
Frank G. Hoffman, Board of Advisors, FPRI
Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog, July 5, 2016
 

"OSB is less of a strategy about how to secure U.S. interests more efficiently, and is more of a dodge. Overall, this strategic approach cedes the initiative and our national interests to another power until that power, a friend or foe, takes actions that we deem unacceptable."


Black SeaIf the Atlantic Ocean is the New Black Sea, What’s the Black Sea? Aegis Ashore and the Black Sea Region’s Changing Security Dynamic
John R. Haines, Senior Fellow, FPRI
FPRI E-Notes, July 2016

"So while the place of the Black Sea (and the Mediterranean) in Russia's newest maritime doctrine may be subsumed strategically to the Atlantic Ocean, it does not diminish the Russian Black Sea Fleet's critical sea-denial role."


Source: Inter-American DialogueLimits of Chinese Friendship: China’s Development Loans to Venezuela
Felix K. Chang, Senior Fellow, FPRI
Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog, June 24, 2016

"True friends are tested in adversity. Clearly, the Maduro government’s growing inability to repay its loans to China has put their relationship in a difficult spot. Equally clear is that Beijing’s desire to recoup as much as possible from its development loans to Venezuela."


Thomas Goex | AFP | GettyAre the Palestinians Thinking the Unthinkable?
Adam Garfinkle, Robert A. Fox Fellow, FPRI
Walter Russell Mead, Editor at Large, The American Interest
The American Interest, June  22 2016

"Nothing in this part of the world is going to clear up in a hurry, but the lack of the usual strident reaction to any suggestion that Palestinian negotiators should “never” put off-the-table questions on the table is, as far as it goes, an encouraging sign."


LatviaLatvia’s Debate About Russian Propaganda
Una Bergmane, Senior Fellow, FPRI
Baltic Bulletin, July 2016

"In the context of Russia’s aggression in Eastern Ukraine and tensions in Russia-EU relations, the so-called “information war” between Russia and the West has become a journalistic buzzword, a rhetorical tool in political debates, and a source of deep concern for Russia’s neighbors."

Scholars in the News


Clint WattsFPRI's Clint Watts Appears in Multiple Media Outlets to Discuss the Future of the Islamic State

 


Watts's WorldPost piece was cited by The Washington Times where he was also quoted. His latest Geopoliticus Post was cited by Business InsiderThe National, Malay Mail Online, and Vox.

 

Japan TimesFPRI's June Teufel Dreyer Quoted in Japan Times
July 6, 2016

“It is likely that the reason for Beijing’s efforts to present its case to the public is defensive: it fears that ITLOS’s decision will go against it.” 

 

Foreign PolicyFPRI's Jim McGAnn Quoted in Foreign Policy
July 7, 2016

 


ICAS (Institute for China-American Studies) seems “underfunded and not very well focused.”

 

The Wall Street JournalFPRI's Lorenzo Vidino Quoted in The Wall Street Journal
July 6, 2016

 

“You are taking a chance, but what is the alternative? Police can’t monitor them all so even if a [counter-radicalization] program is successful in only 30% of the cases, it’s still better.”

 

Eurasia.netFPRI's Michael Cecire Quoted on US Shifting Military Aid in Georgia
July 7, 2016

"There was a tacit understanding that Georgian participation in Afghanistan had combat training that made Georgian soldiers better equipped for territorial defense, but the training wasn't territorial defense per se, or even combined arms."

Events in the Week Ahead


Geopolitics with Granieri
Sumit GangulyIndia and Pakistan: War or Peace?
July 12, 2016
11:00 am Reception, 11:30 am Program



After four wars and multiple crises, Indo-Pakistani relations stand at a deadly impasse, contends FPRI Senior Fellow Sumit Ganguly in his new book, Deadly Impasse: Indo-Pakistani Relations at the Dawn of a New Century. Does the Christmas Day 2015 meeting of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif portend a new beginning? Is there a role for the US in preventing future conflict? To answer these questions and more, FPRI’s Ron Granieri will “interrogate” Ganguly. Ganguly holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, where he is also director of the Center on American and Global Security. 

Ganguly will also be speaking at a Manhatton Salon (invitation only) in the evening to discuss his new book.


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