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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is below and the links direct you to details.

Note, while we provide a synthesis from reputed outlets and conduct validation, this is a research product developed and ope rationalized over the last decade for water management by the MASL years and it is experimental. Please add this email address and fectsl@gmail.com to your contact list. Background on this report is available (Click Here). If you wish to subscribe Click Here . 
 
 
Maldives

Highlights

Dry conditions were observed throughout the country between 27th January- 1st February except in the south western region of the country. In this region up to 40 mm rainfall was seen on the 26th. Furthermore, the entire country received less than average rainfall in January. Most models predict a continuation in dry conditions in the next two weeks.
 

Contents and Links to Sections

1.Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: During the week 26th January – 1st February 2016, significant rainfall was only observed in Galle, Matara, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts on the 26th. Up to 40 mm rainfall was observed in these regions. Thereafter no rainfall was observed throughout the country during 27th- 31st January. On the 1st light rainfall was observed in Hambantota District while the south eastern sea received up to 40 mm rainfall.
Weekly Monitoring
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 30th and 31st of Jan 2016- Click Here - for  maps in pdf.
Monthly Monitoring:
In January 2016 dry conditions were seen throughout the country. Below average rainfall was observed in the entire country except in Batticaloa district and some parts in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Ratnapura districts where up to 4 mm/day rainfall was observed.

Monthly Rainfall MonitoringImage caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The  brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color  shows places with above average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall Click Here - for  maps in pdf.

Satellite Derived RainfallImage caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.


Weekly Average SST Anomalies

Image caption:-Weekly Average SST Anomalies
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.
  14 day predictions: NOAA NCEP models predict up to 45 mm rainfall in north western regions in the country and up to 75 mm rainfall around Batticaloa during 2nd- 8th February. In the following week (9th- 15th) no rainfall is expected.
NCEP GFS 1-14 Days Prediction
Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.

IMD WRF &IRI Model Forecast:  WRF Model Forecast(From IMD Chennai)

According to the IMD WRF model, it shall not rain throughout the country during 3rd and 4th February 2016. IRI CFS models predict up to 50 mm rainfall around Batticaloa, Kalmunai during 1st- 6th February. There shall be up to 100 mm rainfall in the sea east of Kalmunai during this period.

Image caption:-WRF Model Forecast (from IMD Chennai)
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast

Weekly Rainfall ForecastImage caption:Total rainfall forecast from the IRI for next  six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left  shows  the  expectancy  of  heavy  rainfall  events  during these six days  while  the  figure  to  the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
 
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.
Seasonal Prediction:  As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for February to April, the total 3 month precipitation has 50% likelihood of being below average. The 3 month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.
Seasonal Rainfall and Tempreature
Image caption: Following is the latest seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction for the next 3 months by the IRI. The color shading indicates the probability of the most dominant tercile -- that is, the tercile having the highest forecast probability. The color bar alongside the map defines these dominant tercile probability levels. The upper side of the color bar shows the colors used for increasingly strong probabilities when the dominant tercile is the above-normal tercile, while the lower side shows likewise for the below-normal tercile. The gray  color indicates an enhanced probability for the near-normal tercile (nearly always limited to 40%)
Click Here - for  maps in pdf.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE(Text Courtesy IRI)
During mid-January 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level, having peaked in November and December. All atmospheric variables strongly support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the January-March 2016 season in progress. The beginning of a gradual weakening of the SST anomaly is underway, with the event dissipating to neutral conditions by late spring or early summer 2016. 

INDIAN OCEAN STATE

0.50C above average temperature was observed around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE

MJO shall be in phase 4 therefore shall slightly enhance rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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