I don't have to tell you that winter made an unceremonious and unwelcome return to the northeast this weekend. It is just so tough to wrap my head around the fact that we had no snow at all this winter and now, just as things are starting to come alive, I've got to remember where I put my snow shovel. Here in Trumansburg we have cold temperatures (upper 20s), snow (3-4"), and school delays. However, the real fun has only just begun.

- Tonight and Tuesday are forecast to be extremely cold across the state. This exposes trees and fruit buds to the serious threat of cold damage. I've attached a chart I put together that summarizes the situation across the state by comparing different weather forecast sources. The good thing is that it is generally forecast to be warmer (by only a few degrees) than some of the direst forecasts I'd seen even just a few days ago.

The real threats come if the temperatures decide to buck that trend and get even colder -- even just a few degrees could mean a lot. As well, the skies are supposed to be clear (no heat trapping thermal inversion potential) with moderate (10-12 mph) winds, meaning that any heat generating cold protection is not likely to do much good unless you are in a very protected area. The winds also mean that the windchills will be in the single digits or lower - depending on your location. We're kind of at the mercy of mother nature this time around. 

** WINDCHILLS. I haven't ever heard a good explanation of how windchills differ from plain cold temperatures in terms of damage at different stages of fruit bud development. I understand that when buds are tight, they are not that affected because they can't lose heat to wind. But as buds open and more leaf tissue is exposed to the cold and the winds, I can't help but believe they desiccate and lose heat, thereby becoming more susceptible to cold, windy conditions. So are the predicted temperatures Tuesday night of greater concern with the wind (especially in the Hudson Valley) or not? I guess only time will tell. 

- So, say we get through Tuesday night relatively unscathed, what next? Well, the temperatures rise, push the fruit buds along a little bit more and then Friday and Saturday nights we're expected see lows back down into the 20s (upper teens for Ithaca) again with cloudy conditions. It is supposed to somewhat windy, so cold protection measures will be marginally effective at best. Again, we're kind of at the mercy of mother nature. 

- After that, the long-term forecast is for more seasonably high temperatures, but still plenty of days with lows near freezing. This is the time that frost and cold protection measures will likely pay off. Of course, this is two and three weeks down the road, and the forecast can and will likely change. But the closer trees come to bloom during this period and the more uncertain the weather the more likely there will be serious issues.

Why do I tell you something you likely already know? Because it is important that during this time to put everything you have into making sure that every trick up your sleeve is at your disposal - this means you need to make wind machines are tuned up, heaters are fueled up, overhead irrigation is hooked up, and that you the materials you'll need for any preconditioning and recovery sprays as we get closer to bloom (which for some if closer than you think). Its going to be a long spring and likely we'll have more weather events nibbling away at the crop. Being prepared is about all you can do. 

After Tuesday I will be conducting some on the ground reconnaissance to determine the damage after which we'll make some recommendations for sprays and freeze damage recovery. So, more to come. 
 

FENDING OFF OLD MAN WINTER

In some recent emails I have promoted the idea of using a multipronged approach to fend off the impending frost and freezes we have coming up. For some things, like wind machines it may just be too late. For others, you'll need to be prepared, because trying to get products at the 11th hour or on the weekend is probably impossible. Heat is probably your greatest ally and for that reason, I would put my money on (but not in) fires and any heat generating device. The temperatures are going to be cold enough, but not so cold that a few degrees of extra protection could make all the difference. Most orchards have wood laying around and depending on the conditions, strategically located bonfires could be very beneficial. Place them on low lowest parts of the orchard (remember heat rises) and upwind, so any breeze pushes the heat into the orchard. Just be aware that if it too windy not only will the heat just get pushed out of the orchard, but you could  set the neighborhood on fire. Make sure the local fire department and your neighbors know what is going on. It'd be even better if you barrels on hand to burn the wood in. In fact, forget I ever said anything. 

Wind machines, including helicopters and such, won't do much good when it it this cold or when there is a clear night. They just end up pushing around cold air. They only work where the temperature differential is enough that a few degrees will make a difference. And there needs to be a heat source. A combination of heat and wind (even an airblast sprayer) can be coupled together to help, especially on still nights when nothing is moving. Remember only a few degrees of additional protection may be all that you need. 

Preconditioning sprays. The idea is to build up the dissolved or soluble solids in cell cytoplasm as a natural antifreeze. This NOT something that can done overnight, but should be done from 1/4" green all the way up to and through bloom. A combination of materials can help. For all of the materials below, Read the label for rates and other use restrictions (including organic certified products). Please email me with specific questions or concerns. 

Potassium - AEA PHT potassium, CPS Lokomotive, or Agro-K KDL are all products that can theoretically help protect tissue and developing blossoms. 
---Calculate about 1 qt per acre times 4 applications as the amount to order, but read the label or email me for specifics.

Calcium - there are so many calcium products I can't even begin to recommend the best one for this instance (though SeaShield below seems to have a good amount of calcium init, but is NOT a replacement for a true liquid calcium product). Again, bear in mind that the theory is to build up the mineral content of the cell cytoplasm. Just make it is a liquid calcium product. It needs to get into the tissue to do any good. 
---Calculate about 1 qt per acre times 4 applications as the amount to order. Read the label or email me for specifics once you  have the product in hand.

Amino Acids and Cytokinins - Neptune's Harvest Hydrolyzed Liquid Fish, AEA SeaShield. Apparently SeaShield has a fairly high level of calcium compared to other liquid fish, plus it has chitin and chintiase that are antimicrobial and plant defense elicitors -- more to come on this. Bottom line is to use a liquid fish fertilizer (not an emulsion or dry material). 
---Calculate about 1 oz per 100 gal of water (per acre) times 4 applications as the amount to order. Read the label or email me for specifics once you  have the product in hand.

Microorganisms - several years ago there was interest in applying specific bacteria as an anti-ice nucleating protection measure. The results have been inconclusive at best. However, there is reason to be hopeful and that the application of live microorganisms, such as effective microbes, could act similarly and help prevent ice nucleation on the surface of leaf or floral tissue. At the very least it might assist in the suppression of diseases such as fireblight. In any case, these organisms are readily available. The most cost effective is the EM-1 from Terraganix. You can brew up a large batch fairly easily and have enough for the entire season. However, with the time constraints we're up against, it is probably better to consider brewing some on the side while applying (as needed) the concentrate to the orchard. Expensive  to be sure, but cheaper than losing a crop if it works. Another product is Spectrum by Tainio that has a good mix of organisms in it. Calculate about 1 gal per acre of brewed EM times 4 applications as the amount to make/order.
---Read the label or email me for specifics once you have the product in hand. You'll need to decide whether you want to make it (if you have time) or just apply concentrate - the rates differ greatly.

Molasses - you might even want to mix some molasses into the tank as a source of sugar for the cell cytoplasm as well as food for the microorganisms. 
---Calculate about 1 qt per 100 gallons water (per acre) times 4 applications as the amount to order. Read the label or email me for specifics once you  have the product in hand.

Biodynamic Sprays - Finally, I have working to pull together a wide range of data -- anecdotal and otherwise - that suggest the use of Valerian and other biodynamic sprays can help protect blossoms from frost. I plan on publishing this soon, but in the meantime, you should order your Valerian (BD507), BD500, and BD504  (Stinging Nettle) from Josephine Porter Institute soon. They're cheap enough that they can't hurt. However, and this is very important, biodynamic practitioners have warned against using this approach in non-holistic orchards - not that it will hurt, it just won't do any good because the farm is not under holistic/biodynamic management. But in year like this, I'd roll the dice. 
---Order a few vials/pouches of each. Look for the next email with specific mixing and application instructions. 

CAVEAT. Many of these approaches have a valid, scientific basis for working, though are relatively untested. More importantly, they only work within a narrow temperature range and may only give 4-5F of protection at best - so don't expect miracles if the temperature are expected to drop to more than 5F below the critical temperatures for the fruit and phenological stage of development at the time.  But on nights where the call could be close, what have you got to lose.