Issue #18
April 15, 2016

We're back!

Welcome again to your 3 Bells Newsletter. We ring 3 bells for you about the future of work and business.

The first large-scale drone delivery programme will be in...

We're all excited about drones. We can't wait to see what the little automated delivery gizmos can do for us. But where will the first large-scale test happen, and who will run it? In the US no doubt, and done by Amazon or Google?
Actually, it will be in Rwanda. From July, San Francisco-based Zipline has said it plans to begin using its new drones to deliver blood from Rwandan blood banks to rural areas for emergency transfusions. The problem: it's hard to predict in advance what blood types will be needed; and there's no reliable way to store blood in remote areas anyway. 
Enter drones. Rwanda will keep all of the blood centralized in two blood banks in the whole country. Drones will send blood deliveries out as needed, in a 15-45 minute timespan. "This is going to be the first time that this kind of system is operating anywhere, delivering anything, where it's actually operating at a national scale and doing hundreds of deliveries a day," said Keller Rinaudo, Zipline's cofounder. 
Applause is called for. Let's hope it works.
Photo credit: Zipline
We don't have to wait for others to test and grow the new tech for us. We can do it first, right here in Africa. The only thing that stops us is us.

Amazon just quietly displaced Walmart

Last year something momentous happened. The world's largest physical retailer, Walmart, was quietly overtaken in market capitalisation by Amazon, the world's pioneer online retailer. Think about it: a company that employs more people than those in formal employment in the whole of Kenya just got overtaken by an internet upstart.
Walmart still has far greater sales than Amazon, but the signs are clear. As I wrote here in a recent bell, we may be witnessing Peak Walmart. The recently announced Fortune 500 list showed Walmart had fallen to 13th place by market value, while Amazon had sneaked in at number 9.
There's really no stopping the internet now that it's gone mobile. When people have the power to view, compare and buy stuff from something that's in the palm of their hand all day, it's game over for those still trying to get those people to haul themselves across town in traffic, physically search for goods and load them onto trolleys, stand in queues to pay for them, and then trudge back home. You're only going to do that for things that are truly worth doing in person. Everyday shopping is not one of those things.
Photo credit: simone.brunozzi / Flickr (adjusted)
When you're looking for a powerful advantage over competing businesses, pay a lot of attention to CONVENIENCE. For many purchases, it is THE most powerful attribute driving consumers to buy.

Tata exits steel in Britain

India's Tata acquired Britain's steel assets, then part of Corus, in 2007 for an inflated price. I suspected then that this was an act of hubris: the colonised biting the coloniser back by buying one of its crown jewels. The acquisition has burned money. A global glut caused by cheaper Chinese producers has caused the loss of 70,000 steel jobs in Europe since 2008. Tata has now set a deadline for a distress sale of its British assets, failing which it will shut down the plants.
The British feel this acutely. In 1875, Britain produced almost 40 per cent of the world’s steel. Now its global share is just 0.7 per cent. There have been predictable cries to save the remaining jobs in the industry, even nationalise it again. But to what end? It would be throwing bad money after good. There comes a time when it is best to let the past go and focus on what you might be good at in the future. The government would be better advised to help those who will lose their jobs get retrained, and to focus on investments that are forward looking.
Photo credit: By Grubb at English Wikipedia (adjusted)
Don't let emotion about the past cloud your business decisions. What worked then often won't work now. When it's time to move on, move on.
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