|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Money is like manure,
if we spread it around it does a lot of good,
if we pile it up it stinks!"
|
|
|
DAN'S BLOG
Last week, I attended the World Outlook Financial Conference and there were some very interesting presentations from experts in their given field of disciplines. Here are some highlights:
- Oil - With the demand for oil declining in Europe and China, we can expect the price to continue to drop. As I write this, oil is currently just under $50 at $49.14. Expect oil to decline under $40 as the U.S. and China oil reserve capacity is filled and there is no other place to store the oil. Prices will continue to drop under $40 which is bad for the Canadian Oil industry but good for consumers with cheaper oil prices. Industry in manufacturing, trucking and the airlines will all benefit from these lower prices.
- Real Estate - This is a moving target as it will continue to grow in cities like Vancouver but is diving in places like Alberta, Houston and other oil dependent cities. One interesting note, 65% of people in Canada are planning to retire after the age of 65 in B.C.
- Sovereign Debt - This was a topic that was very concerning. Only one government has ever paid back it’s sovereign debt and that was Romania in the 1980’s. England now spends 40% of its taxes on servicing its government debt. We are facing a global government debt crises that threatens the Euro dollar and could cause much further unrest in Europe both civil and government against government. This is a huge subject for discussion and I will write further on this later in another blog.
- Stock Market - Money is like water, it cannot disappear it has to go somewhere. It moves from Europe to the U.S. or China and back again. The U.S stock market is driving upwards while storefronts in the U.S. remain empty and retail stores continue to pull back. This does not make sense from an economic point-of-view unless you understand that money is leaving Europe in record numbers because of Putin marching into the Ukraine and since no one stopped him, then most likely Estonia will be next. He is wanting to restore the land mass of the former Soviet union to regain resources, influence and power. Money is leaving Europe and going to the only safe haven it knows and that is the U.S. and U.S. companies. Look for the U.S. stock market to continue to grow till 2017 with increased volatility.
I hope to spend more time in the future writing more about this and what the solutions are to these challenges. If you would like to attend a seminar on all of this or a webinar send us an email and let us know. If we have enough interested people, then we can organize an event to present our thoughts and solutions.
Dan Loney
For more information on how Loney Financial can help, contact us at 604.534.6003 or Email: dan@loneyfinancial.com
|
|
CLIENT NEWS
Protect your Access to Financial Advice
Dear Loney Financial Client
 There are potential changes coming this year that may impact our relationship, and I'm asking for your help. The Canadian Securities Administrators is considering a ban on commissions, a move that will ultimately restrict the way you pay for the value and services I provide.
I belong to a professional association called, Advocis, The Financial Advisors Association of Canada. One of Advocis' mandates is to enhance consumer protection and ensure Canadians have access to financial advice.
By answering this short survey from Advocis, you'll help them understand what consumers really want in the securities and insurance sectors.
 Please take a few minutes to share your views as soon as possible. These changes could happen in the next few months, and the sooner you complete the survey, the better prepared Advocis will be to act on our behalves. Your responses will directly go to a third party research firm, and your personal information will be kept anonymous and confidential.
I appreciate your support. Your participation makes a huge difference in the future of financial advice in Canada.
Dan Loney
If you require more information please contact me at 604.534.6003 or Email: dan@loneyfinancial.com
Click here to take the survey!
|
|
|
SMARTER SPENDING CALCULATOR
|
|
As part of your overall personal finances, it is wise to get a good understanding of your spending. It may feel a little overwhelming to try to balance your personal finances with your busy life, however you will find it well worth the effort.
The cost of everyday items may seem minimal, but when you start spending smarter and invest the remaining savings instead, you can significantly increase the amount you have to spend in the future.
While there are many tips on how to spend smarter, this personal finance calculator estimates how much you can save in a year by spending less in a number of areas including: driving a used car, car pooling, paying off credit cards and cutting back on other non-essential items. It also can incorporate the tax consequences and estimates the future value of your savings.
See how saving a little today can help you achieve the financial future you desire. www.lifestylecalculators.com/smart-spending-calculator/
|
|
|
Manulife Bank:
Take control of your finances
|
|
The Harsevoorts tell us they’re able to raise a young family and still have money left over with Manulife One.
http://www.manulifeone.ca
|
|
"Here is an example of how the media can be so wrong and misleading. On Januray 5th they came out with the declaration that it looked like Canada would raise rates and just days later they actually decreased rates. Warning to reader: Don’t always believe everything you read in the media!”
Dan
Get ready for interest rate shock in 2015
Consumers with high levels of debt to be most affected when Fed, Bank of Canada raise rates
2015 is expected to be the first time in five years that benchmark interest rates are moved upwards, increasing the cost of borrowing. The U.S. Federal Reserve will go first; the Bank of Canada is expected to follow.
Most analysts expect the Fed to increase its key rate, which has been near zero for six years, by a quarter of a percentage point in the spring. Then, unless there is an unexpected shock to the U.S. economy, it will likely boost it gradually throughout the year, though the top rate is still expected to be a modest 1.25 to 1.50 per cent by the end of the year.
Canada will almost certainly follow, though with a time lag, depending on the state of the economy here.
Whenever it happens will be a shock to people carrying consumer debt, says Lynnette Purda, an associate professor at the Queen’s School of Business.
The interest rates on consumer loans, lines of credit, variable rate mortgages and some auto loans could rise immediately. For Canadians carrying consumer debt that will mean higher payments.
“Despite the low interest rates we’ve had for years, no one seems to have worked away at their debt levels. It will be a wake-up call for many consumers,” Purda told CBC News.
Consumers could pull back
Purda expects Canadians will pull back on big ticket purchases, like cars, appliances and furniture as interest rates rise.
And the biggest ticket purchase of all, housing, will not be unscathed. Overheated markets will finally cool and we may finally see the “soft landing” long predicted by the Bank of Canada and economists.
The timing of the interest rate increase – which has been predicted in past years without materializing – is no sure thing.
Although the U.S. Fed at its last rate announcement indicated it was most likely to move in the second quarter of 2015, much depends on economic indicators. Low oil prices have given a boost to the U.S. economy and left more money in people’s pockets, so there is a possibility the Fed could move even sooner.
TD Bank is predicting the Bank of Canada won’t move at the same time as the U.S. even though Canadian rates usually track what is happening in the U.S.
According to TD economist Leslie Preston, the rise may not happen here until the third quarter.
“We expect Canada to raise interest rates in October of 2015 – we expect two [quarter of a percentage] point interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter of 2015, so by the end of 2015, the overnight rate would be at 1.5 per cent – it’s currently at one per cent,” she told CBC News.
The challenge for Stephen Poloz
For Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, this will be the first time he’s wielded one of the key tools in a central banker’s arsenal – the overnight interest rate which is the rate the central bank uses to lend to financial institutions.
And he’ll have to weigh inflation that currently seems quite high against the potential economic impact of higher rates.
The labour market is not yet operating near capacity, with many people still unemployed or underemployed, Preston said. And falling oil prices may slow capital spending and hiring, both in the oil patch and in sectors that supply it, such as equipment manufacturing.
“One of the challenges that emerged most recently are lower oil prices. Canada is a net oil exporter so when prices go down, it affects growth in Canada. This is a new headwind that’s come up,” Preston said.
While those factors may slow the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise rates, bond yields could rise in anticipation of a rate hike and that would affect fixed mortgage rates, according to RBC chief economist Craig Wright.
Wright said the rise in bond yields could catch people by surprise, as it may precede the Fed’s move on rates. Those who are looking to renew a mortgage in 2015 should watch what the banks do with their fixed mortgage rates, he said.
Renewing a mortgage? Lock in early
“What you tend to see is people anticipate a rise in mortgage rates and lock in,” he said, adding that only about 20 per cent of mortgage holders renew each year, so relatively few people will be affected.
Wright warns that people with credit card debt, auto loans and lines of credits are "vulnerable" to a rate hike, especially if they have high levels of debt.
But he is upbeat about prospects for the Canadian economy, saying it is likely to continue improving, with new jobs emerging in the manufacturing sector because of the lower dollar and growing exports. People who are employed are less likely to get in trouble amid rising rates, he says.
He believes Canadian companies will shrug off an interest rate hike and keep investing.
“Companies have a lot of cash to work with. As the economy improves we will be looking for them to build their businesses,” Wright said.
Wright sees the Canadian dollar headed lower next year, possibly below 84 cents US. That makes Canadian exports more competitive.
Upside of higher rates
“Higher rates have an important upside. If they are low for too long, we see bubbles appearing,” Wright said.
He points to the housing market as an example with certain markets overheated because rates are low. Higher rates should help correct any bubble in housing markets, he said.
An interest rate hike could also temper inflation, which is pushing the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target despite lower oil prices.
Preston also sees an upside for savers who want a safe haven for their money.
'"The other side of higher interest rates is it would make life a little easier for a lot of pension funds or savers – the saving side of the economy has been struggling to get returns in a low-interest rate environment,” she said.
www.cbc.ca/news/business/get-ready-for-interest-rate-shock-in-2015
For more information on how Loney Financial can help, contact Dan Loney at 604.534.6003 or Email: dan@loneyfinancial.com
|
|
|
Scott Adams' Secret of Success: Failure
What's the best way to climb to the top? Be a failure.
By the creater of Dilbert: SCOTT ADAMS
View interview at http://goo.gl/xoRCrD
If you're already as successful as you want to be, both personally and professionally, congratulations! Here's the not-so-good news: All you are likely to get from this article is a semientertaining tale about a guy who failed his way to success. But you might also notice some familiar patterns in my story that will give you confirmation (or confirmation bias) that your own success wasn't entirely luck.
If you're just starting your journey toward success—however you define it—or you're wondering what you've been doing wrong until now, you might find some novel ideas here. Maybe the combination of what you know plus what I think I know will be enough to keep you out of the wood chipper.
Let me start with some tips on what not to do. Beware of advice about successful people and their methods. For starters, no two situations are alike. Your dreams of creating a dry-cleaning empire won't be helped by knowing that Thomas Edison liked to take naps. Secondly, biographers never have access to the internal thoughts of successful people. If a biographer says Henry Ford invented the assembly line to impress women, that's probably a guess.
But the most dangerous case of all is when successful people directly give advice. For example, you often hear them say that you should "follow your passion." That sounds perfectly reasonable the first time you hear it. Passion will presumably give you high energy, high resistance to rejection and high determination. Passionate people are more persuasive, too. Those are all good things, right?
Here's the counterargument: When I was a commercial loan officer for a large bank, my boss taught us that you should never make a loan to someone who is following his passion. For example, you don't want to give money to a sports enthusiast who is starting a sports store to pursue his passion for all things sporty. That guy is a bad bet, passion and all. He's in business for the wrong reason.
My boss, who had been a commercial lender for over 30 years, said that the best loan customer is someone who has no passion whatsoever, just a desire to work hard at something that looks good on a spreadsheet. Maybe the loan customer wants to start a dry-cleaning store or invest in a fast-food franchise—boring stuff. That's the person you bet on. You want the grinder, not the guy who loves his job.
For most people, it's easy to be passionate about things that are working out, and that distorts our impression of the importance of passion. I've been involved in several dozen business ventures over the course of my life, and each one made me excited at the start. You might even call it passion.
The ones that didn't work out—and that would be most of them—slowly drained my passion as they failed. The few that worked became more exciting as they succeeded. For example, when I invested in a restaurant with an operating partner, my passion was sky high. And on day one, when there was a line of customers down the block, I was even more passionate. In later years, as the business got pummeled, my passion evolved into frustration and annoyance.
On the other hand, Dilbert started out as just one of many get-rich schemes I was willing to try. When it started to look as if it might be a success, my passion for cartooning increased because I realized it could be my golden ticket. In hindsight, it looks as if the projects that I was most passionate about were also the ones that worked. But objectively, my passion level moved with my success. Success caused passion more than passion caused success.
So forget about passion. And while you're at it, forget about goals, too.
Just after college, I took my first airplane trip, destination California, in search of a job. I was seated next to a businessman who was probably in his early 60s. I suppose I looked like an odd duck with my serious demeanor, bad haircut and cheap suit, clearly out of my element. I asked what he did for a living, and he told me he was the CEO of a company that made screws. He offered me some career advice. He said that every time he got a new job, he immediately started looking for a better one. For him, job seeking was not something one did when necessary. It was a continuing process.
This makes perfect sense if you do the math. Chances are that the best job for you won't become available at precisely the time you declare yourself ready. Your best bet, he explained, was to always be looking for a better deal. The better deal has its own schedule. I believe the way he explained it is that your job is not your job; your job is to find a better job.
This was my first exposure to the idea that one should have a system instead of a goal. The system was to continually look for better options.
Throughout my career I've had my antennae up, looking for examples of people who use systems as opposed to goals. In most cases, as far as I can tell, the people who use systems do better. The systems-driven people have found a way to look at the familiar in new and more useful ways.
To put it bluntly, goals are for losers. That's literally true most of the time. For example, if your goal is to lose 10 pounds, you will spend every moment until you reach the goal—if you reach it at all—feeling as if you were short of your goal. In other words, goal-oriented people exist in a state of nearly continuous failure that they hope will be temporary.
If you achieve your goal, you celebrate and feel terrific, but only until you realize that you just lost the thing that gave you purpose and direction. Your options are to feel empty and useless, perhaps enjoying the spoils of your success until they bore you, or to set new goals and re-enter the cycle of permanent presuccess failure.
I have a friend who is a gifted salesman. He could have sold anything, from houses to toasters. The field he chose (which I won't reveal because he wouldn't appreciate the sudden flood of competition) allows him to sell a service that almost always auto-renews. In other words, he can sell his service once and enjoy ongoing commissions until the customer dies or goes out of business. His biggest problem in life is that he keeps trading his boat for a larger one, and that's a lot of work.
Observers call him lucky. What I see is a man who accurately identified his skill set and chose a system that vastly increased his odds of getting "lucky." In fact, his system is so solid that it could withstand quite a bit of bad luck without buckling. How much passion does this fellow have for his chosen field? Answer: zero. What he has is a spectacular system, and that beats passion every time.
As for my own system, when I graduated from college, I outlined my entrepreneurial plan. The idea was to create something that had value and—this next part is the key—I wanted the product to be something that was easy to reproduce in unlimited quantities. I didn't want to sell my time, at least not directly, because that model has an upward limit. And I didn't want to build my own automobile factory, for example, because cars are not easy to reproduce. I wanted to create, invent, write, or otherwise concoct something widely desired that would be easy to reproduce.
 My system of creating something the public wants and reproducing it in large quantities nearly guaranteed a string of failures. By design, all of my efforts were long shots. Had I been goal-oriented instead of system-oriented, I imagine I would have given up after the first several failures. It would have felt like banging my head against a brick wall.
But being systems-oriented, I felt myself growing more capable every day, no matter the fate of the project that I happened to be working on. And every day during those years I woke up with the same thought, literally, as I rubbed the sleep from my eyes and slapped the alarm clock off.
Today's the day.
If you drill down on any success story, you always discover that luck was a huge part of it. You can't control luck, but you can move from a game with bad odds to one with better odds. You can make it easier for luck to find you. The most useful thing you can do is stay in the game. If your current get-rich project fails, take what you learned and try something else. Keep repeating until something lucky happens. The universe has plenty of luck to go around; you just need to keep your hand raised until it's your turn. It helps to see failure as a road and not a wall.
I'm an optimist by nature, or perhaps by upbringing—it's hard to know where one leaves off and the other begins—but whatever the cause, I've long seen failure as a tool, not an outcome. I believe that viewing the world in that way can be useful for you too.
Nietzsche famously said, "What doesn't kill us makes us stronger." It sounds clever, but it's a loser philosophy. I don't want my failures to simply make me stronger, which I interpret as making me better able to survive future challenges. (To be fair to Nietzsche, he probably meant the word "stronger" to include anything that makes you more capable. I'd ask him to clarify, but ironically he ran out of things that didn't kill him.)
Becoming stronger is obviously a good thing, but it's only barely optimistic. I do want my failures to make me stronger, of course, but I also want to become smarter, more talented, better networked, healthier and more energized. If I find a cow turd on my front steps, I'm not satisfied knowing that I'll be mentally prepared to find some future cow turd. I want to shovel that turd onto my garden and hope the cow returns every week so I never have to buy fertilizer again. Failure is a resource that can be managed.
Before launching Dilbert, and after, I failed at a long series of day jobs and entrepreneurial adventures. Here are just a few of the worst ones. I include them because successful people generally gloss over their most aromatic failures, and it leaves the impression that they have some magic you don't.
When you're done reading this list, you won't have that delusion about me, and that's the point. Success is entirely accessible, even if you happen to be a huge screw-up 95% of the time.
My failures:
Velcro Rosin Bag Invention: In the 1970s, tennis players sometimes used rosin bags to keep their racket hands less sweaty. In college, I built a prototype of a rosin bag that attached to a Velcro strip on tennis shorts so it would always be available when needed. My lawyer told me it wasn't patentworthy because it was simply a combination of two existing products. I approached some sporting-goods companies and got nothing but form-letter rejections. I dropped the idea.
But in the process I learned a valuable lesson: Good ideas have no value because the world already has too many of them. The market rewards execution, not ideas. From that point on, I concentrated on ideas that I could execute. I was already failing toward success, but I didn't yet know it.
Gopher Offer: During my banking career, in my late 20s, I caught the attention of a senior vice president at the bank. Apparently my b.s. skills in meetings were impressive. He offered me a job as his gopher/assistant with the vague assurance that I would meet important executives during the normal course of my work, which would make it easy for him to strap a rocket to my backside—as the saying roughly went—and launch me up the corporate ladder.
On the downside, the challenge would be to survive his less-than-polite management style and do his bidding for a few years. I declined his offer because I was already managing a small group of people, so becoming a gopher seemed like a step backward. I believe the senior vice president's exact characterization of my decision was "[expletive] STUPID!!!" He hired one of my co-workers for the job instead, and in a few years that fellow became one of the youngest vice presidents in the bank's history.
I worked for Crocker National Bank in San Francisco for about eight years, starting at the very bottom and working my way up to lower management. During the course of my banking career, and in line with my strategy of learning as much as I could about the ways of business, I gained an extraordinarily good overview of banking, finance, technology, contracts, management and a dozen other useful skills. I wouldn't have done it any differently.
Webvan: In the dot-com era, a startup called Webvan promised to revolutionize grocery delivery. You could order grocery-store items over the Internet, and one of Webvan's trucks would load your order at the company's modern distribution hub and set out to service all the customers in your area.
I figured Webvan would do for groceries what Amazon had done for books. It was a rare opportunity to get in on the ground floor. I bought a bunch of Webvan stock and felt good about myself. When the stock plunged, I bought some more. I repeated that process several times, each time licking my lips as I acquired ever-larger blocks of the stock at prices I knew to be a steal.
When the company announced that it had achieved positive cash flow at one of its several hubs, I knew that I was onto something. If it worked in one hub, the model was proved, and it would surely work at others. I bought more stock. Now I owned approximately, well, a boatload.
A few weeks later, Webvan went out of business. Investing in Webvan wasn't the dumbest thing I've ever done, but it's a contender. The loss wasn't enough to change my lifestyle. But boy, did it sting psychologically. In my partial defense, I knew it was a gamble, not an investment per se.
What I learned from that experience is that there is no such thing as useful information that comes from a company's management. Now I diversify and let the lying get smoothed out by all the other variables in my investments.
These failures are just a sampling. I'm delighted to admit that I've failed at more challenges than anyone I know.
As for you, I'd like to think that reading this will set you on the path of your own magnificent screw-ups and cavernous disappointments. You're welcome! And if I forgot to mention it earlier, that's exactly where you want to be: steeped to your eyebrows in failure.
It's a good place to be because failure is where success likes to hide in plain sight. Everything you want out of life is in that huge, bubbling vat of failure. The trick is to get the good stuff out.
Mr. Adams is the creator of Dilbert. Adapted from his book "How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big"
|
|
|
WHAT'S DAN READING?
The Miracle Morning by Hal Elrod.
The Not-So-Obvious Secret Guaranteed to Transform Your Life (Before 8AM)
 I enjoyed this book because I am not naturally an early riser. For those of you that know me I do start work very early. I like to be at the desk by 6am for the perfect start to the day. I know that I can accomplish so much in the early morning hours and a lot of that is preparation.
John Wooden, the famous UCLA basketball coach said, “There are only 2 things you can control, preparation and effort”.
This book is helpful to give techniques and encourage a person to get up early and do the undone things. Some people I know naturally rise early, I have had to learn and train myself for this and it can be done!
Dan
What's being widely regarded as "one of the most life changing books ever written" may be the simplest approach to achieving everything you've ever wanted, and faster than you ever thought possible. What if you could wake up tomorrow and any-or EVERY-area of your life was beginning to transform? What would you change? The Miracle Morning is already transforming the lives of tens of thousands of people around the world by showing them how to wake up each day with more ENERGY, MOTIVATION, and FOCUS to take your life to the next level. It's been right here in front of us all along, but this book has finally brought it to life. Are you ready? The next chapter of YOUR life-the most extraordinary life you've ever imagined-is about to begin. It's time to WAKE UP to your full potential...
Purchase this book at Amazon.ca online.
|
|
|
Click here to see the story of a 35 year dream come true and learn about Loney Financial’s support of rescuing homeless children in Guatemala. Thank you to all the clients and associates that have helped to make this a reality.
|
|
|
COOKING WITH DENISE
Denise Bailey our Client Services Coordinator brings you a delicious monthly recipe from her renowned portfolio.
Skinny Mini Desserts – Quinoa Almond Joy Bars
recipe web link
Makes 14
 Keeping in line with the healthy eating theme for New Year I tested these Quinoa bars.
Surprisingly, they are pretty good although I found out I am not very good at "drizzling chocolate". Mine were more of a blob!
As well, I do not have a food processor - do you know how hard it was to mash up those dates using the blender (also tried the Magic Bullet)!
Enjoy. Denise.
 Our skinny mini bars clock in at 94 calories each and are made with four superfoods. Take these mini desserts to work and snack on one when that afternoon sweet craving hits.
Ingredients:
- 1/3 cup (dry) quinoa
- 2/3 cup water
- 12 whole dates, no sugar added
- 1/2 cup whole almonds with skins
- 1/3 cup grated coconut (unsweetened), I used freshly grated coconut
- 2 - 3 teaspoons water
- 1/4 cup dark chocolate chips
Directions:
Add quinoa and water to a small saucepan, cover and bring to a boil, reduce heat to a simmer and cook approximately 15 minutes or until all water has been absorbed. Cool to room temperature and refrigerate at least 2 hours...overnight will work. 1 cup cooked quinoa can be used if already made.
Using a food processor, add dates and pulse until they form a ball. Remove dates and place in a bowl. Add almonds to the food processor and pulse until finely minced. Be careful not to turn the almonds into mill.
Add dates, almonds, coconut and quinoa to the food processor and pulse until ingredients are well combined. Return ingredients to the mixing bowl, and add one teaspoon of water at a time, until mixture holds together. Shape into 14 - mini bars or balls.
In a small saucepan, add chocolate chips and melt over low heat or in a double-boiler. Drizzle warm chocolate over the top of each bar. Refrigerator and allow chocolate to harden. Bars can be stored in an airtight container for several days or frozen in a freezer safe dish.
|
|
|
|
|
Solutions Magazine
Life is Full of Choices
Learn how the right ones can boost your financial future.
Read More (PDF) >
|
|
|
|
Articles
How does your property tax compare with the rest of Canada?
Looking for a reason to grumble about property taxes? Depending on what type of property you own and where, we might have one for you.
Here’s a sneak peak at the findings:
Read More >
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
