For those who are students of Virginia politics – which means all of you – you know that tomorrow has the potential to be very exciting.
Against the backdrop of last year’s shocking upset of former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by now-Rep. Dave Brat in CD 7, several Virginia Republicans are hopeful that they will be the next to catch lightning in a bottle.
Unfortunately for many, if not all of these upstarts, while they may have mounted spirited campaigns, candidates like Speaker William Howell (House 28), State Sen. Steve Martin (Senate 11), former Del. Bill Janis (Senate 12), and Del. Bill DeSteph (Senate 8) - have not been caught off-guard.
While suspect mailings have flooded several of these districts by PACs seeking to gain your attention (and your dollars), it’s highly unlikely we will see many, if any, surprises tomorrow.
The Bearing Drift Editorial Board, which consists of Norman Leahy, Shaun Kenney, Brian Schoeneman and Scott Lee, offers for your consideration our final “Virginia Big Line”:
This “Big Line” was coordinated over the weekend - before I saw an incredible video of grassroots support for Amanda Chase, Sen. Martin’s challenger, and before I had a chance to speak with the candidate in a podcast today. Therefore, and it’s highly abnormal to do this, I am going to be a lone minority voice to our current prediction of a 20 point win for Martin. I believe we're seeing similar momentum and ambiguous polling like last year's CD-7 primary. I do not underestimate the grassroots enthusiasm breaking for Chase and believe this race is currently within the margin of error. I also think Barry Moore made a tactical error (as noted) that favors some of his voters moving to Chase. Watch this one. I think it's closer than folks believe. Or maybe that's me not wanting to get burned like last year again!
Also of note in the Big Line you’ll see Vince Haley, an aide to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and winner of two national endorsements from Texas US Sen. Ted Cruz and radio personality Laura Ingraham, pulling close to an upset in SD 12 over former Del. Bill Janis. While Dr. Siobahn Dunnavant, who could have been an outstanding candidate, it was learned over the course of the campaign sought to run as a Democrat, flip-flopped on Medicaid Expansion, and launched a dreadful ad on immigration and Janis that was forced to be pulled. We believe her support has left in droves and likely helps Haley as we also believe Janis has a ceiling with the primary electorate.
So, without further ado, for your listening pleasure, our interviews with:
Vince Haley
Bill Janis
A Dunnavant consultant reached out to us to schedule an interview, but it never materialized
State Sen. Steve Martin
Amanda Chase
Del. Bill DeSteph
And, if you’re interested in ancient history, listen to one of our first ever podcasts with Craig Hudgins in 2007! (I’ll admit, this is a little painful to listen to – and not because of Mr. Hudgins or my guest host, Brian Kirwin)
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