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US GDP Forecast
The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the second estimate of First Quarter 2015 US GDP on Friday at 8:30 am. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Most forecasters are predicting a decline of 1.0% from the earlier quarter (4th Quarter, 2014.)
Our 2015 Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for GDP suggests the economy is doing better than most admit. In other words, we think we will have a first quarter 2015 GDP estimate that reflects virtually no change, or minus 0.5%."
The US economy is strong and getting stronger. The only thing that can damage it are policy mistakes (like raising interest rates too soon) by officials at the Federal Reserve, and this is reason to be concerned.
Speaking of Erroneous Federal Reserve Policymakers...
 Fed economic policymakers, especially the group at left: MODERATOR: BETTY LIU ANCHOR, “IN THE LOOP WITH BETTY LIU,” BLOOMBERG TELEVISION, ALAN GREENSPAN PRESIDENT, GREENSPAN ASSOCIATES; FORMER CHAIRMAN, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RICHARD W. FISHER FORMER PRESIDENT AND CEO, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS, LAWRENCE B. LINDSEY PRESIDENT AND CEO, THE LINDSEY GROUP; FORMER DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL UNDER PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH; FORMER GOVERNOR, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (at the 2015 Fiscal Summit sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation) collectively, as one analyst stated, have made some of the worst economic forecasts EVER.
For example, in a speech titled The Great Moderation given on February 20, 2004, Ben Bernanke, not shown above, but another former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, failed to note the risk of the then soon to be felt Great Recession that started in 2006.
We note that Bernanke now says "China's economic slowdown should not worry markets as there was no risk of a hard landing, and emphasized that a move to raise U.S. rates should be viewed as a positive sign for the world's largest economy."The photo above is a panel featuring several former Federal Reserve officials whose commonality, in addition to being old, rich, male and white, is that they were all wrong in the years leading up to the recession. The annual conference at which this photo was taken is sponsored by the Peterson Institute.
Peterson helped increase the length and severity of the recession that the aforementioned Fed officials missed by insisting on stringent fiscal policies at exactly the wrong time, a time of need. The Institute represents the interest of bondholders (and only their short term interest, at that.)
Not an accurate forecast among them.
As I said, reason to be concerned.
ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR THE CITY: STILL more trouble ahead
We were early in predicting urban unrest. In testimony to the Council of the District of Columbia on Friday, March 6th and Thursday, March 12th, I made the following forecast:
"Our 2016 Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for the City suggests a crisis may be coming soon in the August/October timeframe."
(See page 2: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx3S91AlzNJ4RGF0WTZQd05Ha3M/view?usp=sharing)
We weren't exactly talking Baltimore, but as I stated on November 2, 2012 and on April 2, 2015, the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) methodology is often early....and we were close enough. My forecast remains the same, but events in Tel Aviv, Baltimore and now DC caused us to modify our target dates.
In addition to announcing a tech initiative focused on majority Black Wards 7 and 8, one with no Black Tech firms (or people, actually) involved, the City just announced that it could not find the money to fully fund "the city’s summer jobs program to include youth up to 24 years old," nor could it find the money to "pay for a full rollout of a police body camera program."
Of course.
(Extra credit is you know what the link is between these two.... hint - #BlackLivesDontMattertotheDCGovernment)
Baltimore
As I noted in the American Banker Newspaper,
" The fact that there are few bank branches in many of Baltimore's affected neighborhoods is emblematic of the importance of fair provisioning of credit across all communities. Without branches, you remove all chances of services like getting a loan, regardless of how good your ideas are or how good your business is. If the institution isn't there, you stand no chance. Sure, you can go downtown and get a loan, but all banking is local."
I'd also note that 249 Blacks were arrested after burning a check cashing place in their neighborhood. Goldman Sachs burned Greece - the Country - and no one was arrested.
No DC Natives, please. We're from 1776.
As noted above, the Mayor announced a tech initiative focused on majority Black Wards 7 and 8, with no Black Tech firms (or people, actually) involved. The group she chose to move this effort forward, 1776, recently held an event at the Harmon Theater:
 "The Global finals is the finale of the entire 2015 Challenge Cup. After going to 16 cities and hearing from thousands of startups, 1776 brings nearly 80 exciting startups with world-changing ideas."
I attended and I can state two things without fear of contradiction:
1. The best firms from 16 global cities were not there.
2. The most compelling startups in the following categories (Education, Energy & Sustainability, Health, and Cities & Transportation) did not win.
Doesn't look good for Wards 7 and 8. We suggest they take a look at:
Howard's Very Own Entrepreneur Fair
"Howard's Very Own" is the premiere platform for Howard University Entrepreneurs to showcase their businesses. The Howard's Very Own platform includes an online directory on howardsveryown.com, a docu-series, and an entrepreneurship fair. Here is a mini-clip of the event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZcCPFXqVJ0 The visual recap from the “Howard’s Very Own Entrepreneurship Fair" can be found at: http://howardsveryown.com/2015/04/howards-very-own-entrepreneurship-fair-recap-2015/
The 2nd Annual CrowdFunding USA Forum on May 7th & 8th, 2015 Washington DC
CrowdFundBeat held a round table discussion on May 7th 2015 at the National Press Club in Washington DC.
This was a good mix of policymakers and practitioners. I appreciate what they are trying to do.
WHAT PEOPLE WANT
I was at the IMF (International Monetary Fund) with a bunch of rich white people (@Lagarde @HelenClarkUNDP @davidmwessel) in April when the subject of poor people came up.  They, of course, had no clue. Here is what we want:
1. Water. Not privatized water systems. Access to clean water.
2. Food. Not GMO degraded, just clean food.
3. Shelter. Not subprime loans, but shelter.
4. Peace. Not the opportunity to be shot in the back by a racist cop, have your spine severed on the way to the Police station, assaulted by a bigoted Israeli soldier or cop, or attacked by a Muslim extremist.
If you think about it, these are the same things that rich white people want.
How to Crowdfund in 2015
We posted an article with the title "How to Crowdfund" in 2012. Given all that has happened in the interim I thought we would update it. This data is from our Online Class on How to Crowdfund - https://www.udemy.com/how-to-crowdfund/
(Video preview: https://youtu.be/nL5svW7pN7w)
For a more targeted session, where I help with your specific project, reserve a session at: https://nationalcrowdfundingservices.acuityscheduling.com/schedule.php
Our books:
The JOBS Act: Crowdfunding for Small Businesses and Startups http://www.amazon.com/The-JOBS-Act-Crowdfunding-Businesses/dp/143024755X
Top 50 Crowdfunding Campaigns: Fifty Most Successful Crowdfunding Campaigns [Kindle Edition] http://www.amazon.com/Top-50-Crowdfunding-Campaigns-Successful-ebook/dp/B00RKK4NL0
Effective Investing
We coined the term "Effective Investing" to reflect a style of investing that does several things. It minimizes fees and costs. Effective Investing:
Minimizes fees, minimizes risk, maximizes potential financial AND social return.
We tell you how to do this online in: Stock, Bond and Mutual Fund Investing (https://www.udemy.com/stock-bond-mutualfund-investing). For a preview, see: https://youtu.be/ImgORmdCCkg
other events
More news and stories...
Comments to the US Government on Fiduciary Duty
According to news reports, "The Department of Labor proposed a rule that would require brokers working with retirement accounts to act in the best interest of clients."
The trade group for brokers "criticized (the) proposal..saying it might cause firms to curtail -- or even discontinue -- sales of individual retirement accounts" and that " the..proposal would create a bias against financial products with higher fees.."
With industry comments like this, we had to submit a statement, which can be found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx3S91AlzNJ4ZGYzaGU1czU0ME0/view?usp=sharing
Norwegian Government investments in coal and petroleum companies
Recently, "the Norwegian Ministry of Finance circulated (a) report from the Expert Group on the Government Pension Fund Global investments in coal and petroleum companies for a public hearing amongst Norwegian stakeholders. My comments,
Singapore Government Facilitating Securities-Based Crowdfunding Investments
The Central Bank of Singapore recently asked for comments on an effort they have launched to "facilitate the access by start-ups and small and medium enterprises ('SMEs') to more sources of funding..." My comments can be found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx3S91AlzNJ4WVZXaTJWclE1VXN2YkdfaTlDNWpuVjZKWGh3/view?usp=sharing
Comments to the Government of the United Kingdom on Fiduciary Duty
“The Government (of the United Kingdom) is keen to encourage the growth of new markets that allow investments to be made on the basis of both financial and social returns. As part of this effort, they want to "ensure that trustees of pension (funds in the UK) understand the extent of their investment powers and duties, and that the law supports them in meeting these.” My comments can be found at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx3S91AlzNJ4R3BVVWhhR01SUDdRdXA4eC1XQktBNjRPZ3Jn/view?usp=sharing
FCC‘s Office of Communications Business Opportunities ("OCBO") Small Business & Emerging Technologies Conference and Tech Fair. See: http://www.fcc.gov/events/small-business-and-emerging-technologies-conference
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