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  • John Akhile, Sr. was recently interviewed on the China-Africa Project Podcast. The subject of the interview was his book, Unleashed: A New Paradigm of African Trade with the World. The podcast is hosted by journalist Eric Olander and Dr. Cobus van Staden. The podcast is described as “a lively discussion on China's engagement across Africa” and discusses topics like Chinese views of Africa among a myriad of topics. John's interview, "Should Africa Follow Asia's Path to Economic Prosperity" was published on 7/17/15 and can be found here. For more information, you can like them on Facebook or visit their website
 
  • It's still a work in progress, but we are currently putting together an online book tour and will be scheduling "stops" on a variety of sites. Stay tuned for more information as we start to nail down the tour stops and dates. 
Unleashed: A New Paradigm of African Trade with the World is now available to buy at any of the sites listed below. 

Unleashed Site | Bookmasters | Amazon.com

Comparing Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra-Leone to Singapore

 

by John I. Akhile Sr.


Statistics can be misleading because people on both sides of the same issue can skew the message of statistics to argue their case. However, in the comparison of basic economic development matrix of the four countries, Singapore, Guinea, Sierra-Leone, and Liberia, no such opportunity exists. What you see is what you get. The statistics indeed tell the story of how one country because of the determination and can-do spirit of the leaders survived and thrived while the other three have languished in poverty and lack, in a beggar’s universe. An existence that means entire nations of people are dependent on the goodwill of the taxpayers of other states to pay their workers and feed their people.

 

A map showing the countries of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.

Let us compare shall we, and you the reader can draw your conclusions. Singapore has no raw material exports from which they earn hard currency. The three African countries have various raw materials that they export for hard currency. From the illustrations, one can deduce that the countries except for Guinea, are drawing from the same well of natural elements available to every nation and human on earth. That is the human resources and land area that comprises the seed, soil, and sunshine of natural endowment! Guinea has a much larger well of human resources and land area and thus more seed, soil, and sunshine than the other countries.


The Difference in Per Capita Income of the Countries

Per capita income, in a nutshell, is the total of the production of the country divided by the heads or population count. It is usually a good gauge of the average living standard of the people. Although in the case of countries that have poor accountability and bad governance structures like Equatorial Guinea, high per capita income does not translate to a high standard of living for the people of the country.

The differentiating quality in the three countries is in what each country has done with the endowments. From 1960 to 2014, Singapore grew its per capita GDP from $394.00 to $56,286.00 or by a factor of 142 times the 1960 number. Guinea's stats from the period are not clear. However, in 2014, per capita income for Guinea was $550. Given the significant advantage in human and land resource endowment over Singapore, a GDP of $550.00, which is a factor of 102 times less than Singapore's, reflects less than optimal use of its resources.  Liberia had a per capita GDP of $170.00. By 2014, it was $461.00 or a factor of 2.7 times the 1960 number. Sierra-Leone had a per capita GDP of $149.00 in 1960, and it was $788.40 or a factor of 5.2 times the 1960 number. If you account for population growth, it means that Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra-Leone are earning less than what they earned in 1960. In other words, they went backward instead of forward.  
 

Comparing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Countries

This data measures the total production of the country.

In 1960, Singapore had a GDP of $649 million. In 2014, it was $309 billion or a factor of 445 times the 1960 number. Guinea did not record data for the period. But in 2014, the GDP of Guinea was $6.6 billion or a factor of 46 times less than that of Singapore, which is a much smaller country in every aspect. Liberia's GDP in 1960 was $190 million and in 2014 it was $2.2 billion or a factor of 11 times. In 1960, Sierra Leone's GDP was $322 million. In 2014, it was 4.89 billion or a factor increase of 15.1 times. Again, if you factor in inflation and population growth, the countries have regressed.

Country

Pop.

Land Area

Liberia

4 m

96,320 sq km

Guinea

11.1 m

245,720 sq km

Sierra-Leone

5.61 m

71,620 sq km

Singapore

5 m

697 sq km

 

   

Country

GDP/1960

PER CAPITA GDP/1960

Liberia

$190 million

$170.04

Guinea

No stats avail

no stats avail

Sierra-Leone

$322 million

$149.07

Singapore

$649 million

$394.65

 

   

Country

GDP/1970

PER CAPITA GDP/1970

Liberia

$323 million

$227.58

Guinea

no stats avail

no stats avail

Sierra-Leone

$434 million

$171.58

Singapore

$1.92 billion

$925.06

 

   

Country

GDP 2014

PER CAPITA GDP/2014

Liberia

$2.02 billion

$461.00

Guinea

$6.6 billion

$550.00

Sierra-Leone

$4.89 billion

$788.40

Singapore

$307.9 billion

$56,286.00

 

The reason for the disparity is vividly illustrated in the modus-operandi of the countries after the horrendous experience brought on by the outbreak of Ebola. After the Ebola debacle, the President of Liberia along with the leaders of the other two affected countries--Guinea and Sierra-Leone--have been seeking "Aid." They went to the international community to request $8 billion (U.S. dollars) for medical and other development infrastructure. They did not take the time, one surmises, to ask to whom they are making the request. In other words, from whom are they seeking aid? The answer is that they are seeking aid from the taxpayers of other countries, viz., USA, UK, Japan, Sweden, Germany, France, Canada, etc. The money they are seeking comes from the pockets of the taxpayers of those countries--some of whom are also poor. In extreme cases, they are very poor. Think about that for a moment. That is akin to one adult saying to another adult that "Because I have messed up my life's agenda, I want you to handle me and my children's welfare." What, pray tell, would be the response of the unfortunate adult accosted by such affront?

A begging bowl.

Singapore chose to do things very differently, and their way has worked. At least they are not going around elegantly dressed for Sunday school while parading with a begging bowl. Singapore depended on the ideas from its people and wise counsel from around the world. They went seeking ideas and implemented every idea they thought would work. Michael Milken, the extra-ordinary visionary of junk bond financing said about capital. "The common perception is that capital is scarce, but in fact, capital is abundant. It is 'vision' that is scarce." Jesus put it another way. He said, "my people perish for lack of vision." Vision is the power given unto humans by the divine creator to create their reality from seed, soil, and sunshine, which are the only guaranteed resources available to every nation and person. Because "he hath given us all things that pertain to life and Godliness, through the knowledge of him that has called us to glory and virtue." That promise includes African people. How it is mixed and matched, cobbled together by ideas, is what yields the lifestyle of any and all peoples.

Instead of a begging bowl, the countries should be driving their resurgence and restoration with a captivating vision of possibilities and by refusing to give up or take "no" for an answer. What they should be doing instead of taking a very fancy BEGGING BOWL to the world, is to look within their countries and the diaspora community for ideas, mechanisms and financial alchemy that will unleash their development.  It should begin with gathering a brain trust to review every idea, turn over every rock and unearth techniques that will start the process of irreversible growth to prosperity. I highly recommend Lee Kuan Yew's book, From Third World to First.

All three countries have things they can do right now. For example, Firestone has been producing rubber in Liberia for 100 years but there are no factories converting rubber to tires and other goods for export. Iron ore exists in great quantities in these countries, but no steel plant manufacturing steel for export to other African countries and the world. The ore is exported to Europe and converted into steel products before returning to African countries and the original exporters of iron ore as finished steel. By changing this pattern, the countries can unleash a process of instituting irreversible growth in their economy and prosperity that lifts all boats in their societies.

John I. Akhile Sr. is the author of two books: Compensatory Trade Strategy: How to Fund Import-Export Trade and Industrial Projects When Hard Currency is in Short Supply and now Unleashed: A New Paradigm of African Trade with the World. He is also the President of African Trade Group LLC., a U.S. based trading company.
Compensatory Trade Should be a Major Component
 

In this segment of all the above strategy for development, we are exploring how the concept of trade without money can factor into the development strategies of African countries. In my book, Compensatory Trade Strategy, How to Fund Import-Export Trade when Hard Currency is in Short Supply, there are several illustrations of compensatory trade techniques. No-money-down concepts are the basis for the illustrations. Like the ones taught by the late Leo G. Welt, then of Welt International, in seminars in the U.S. and shared in his book, Trade without Money, Barter Countertrade. Compensatory trade techniques also figured prominently in Euromoney Seminars in U.K. Every major Western and Eastern company and all the governments were practicing it on some level. It was trade alchemy created precisely to deal with the economic challenges that made cash a huge premium in global trade between and within nations in the 1970s and 1980s. It is still very relevant to African countries because for now, at least, they are in a fiscal environment that is limiting their ability to develop their economies from internal resources because they are cash poor.

Trade and Financial “Alchemy” is the Key for African Nations

In the limited fiscal environment in which African countries exist, the countervailing antidote, “necessity being the mother of invention” is creativity.  Compensatory trade is a term coined to tent all barter & countertrade transactions, including counter-purchase, evidence accounts, offset, buyback/industrial cooperation, etc. Barter, the original form of the trade alchemy, had been around since before recorded history because primitive people practiced a simple form of barter exchange. After WWII, barter technique was heavily used because Germany and most of Europe lacked cash. But its modern reincarnation was in the 1970s and ‘80s, when the world economy was in a recession. Tight fiscal policies and high-interest rates in the U.S. and U.K., instituted to combat inflation in both countries, cascaded its effect on the world by shrinking the global economy. It made it very difficult for poorer countries to service their dollar-denominated debts or to afford important imports. East-West trade became almost exclusively dependent on barter and countertrade because the then-Soviet bloc of COMECON nations had little to no hard currency resources.

Fig. 1 The basic premise of compensatory trade.

It was difficult in the Western economies, too. Companies were unable to sell their wares to their foreign customers and within domestic economies, goods, and services did not flow as well because buyers lacked cash. Cash was at a premium and in response, barter trade flourished. In official circles, Western nations said one thing, but behind closed doors they joined the chorus. Their official position was that compensatory trade was restrictive trade and thus violated the principles of a free world trade system. However, the reality was that competition between their (Western) nations forced them to institute a process of managing compensatory trade. The driver of the competition was (Western) businesses competing for market share in the world. U.S. response to compensatory trade techniques was headed by one of the world's premier compensatory trade experts, Dr. Pompilliu Verzariu. Dr. Verzariu is the author of one of the world's most popular and authoritative books on the subject, titled, Countertrade, Barter, Offsets: New Strategies for Profit in International Trade. The rise of barter during the period is an example of Western business's response to an existential crisis. During periods of an existential threat the pattern is that Western businesses unleash a desperate creativity driven by survival instincts, and their governments follow their lead. In that context, principles such as free trade are trodden under the foot of businesses that are seeking avenues to sell their wares by any legal means necessary.

Grow and Prosper Through the Power of Ideas

African countries don't yet understand the full ramifications of an existential threat because frankly it has not been a status-quo felt by most African societies. On the other hand, European nations, from which all Western societies and cultures have evolved, had to deal constantly with the existential threat of invasion and conquest by other Europeans before the modern era. The desperation-mandate to act is deep-seated in the mindset and psyche of Westerners. It is evident in how Western societies react to everything including social and military matters. Africans have no such propellant, and this is the time for it to evolve because times are desperate and desperate times require desperate measures.
Fig. 2 Various techniques of Compensatory trade.
 
In the current business environment, people in the West don’t have a “pressing” need to scurry around the world trying to get anyone to buy their wares by any means necessary, including countertrade. That is because, in the prolonged "bull" (business) cycle, businesses have cash customers and don't need to use extraordinary means to get sales. In the 1980s that was not the case. Although cash constraints prevented customers from doing business, a large majority had goods and or services that they could trade. As a result, most companies created a Countertrade unit within their companies to execute countertrade offers. It was to ensure that they did not lose market to the competition, due to inability to compete on every business platform. The countertrade unit was incorporated into the sales and marketing unit of companies. Their role was to negotiate countertrade offers from traditional cash customers and to dispose of countertrade products received from transactions.

Western attitude towards compensatory trade techniques is one of pragmatism. It is a good posture because there is a good chance that the world will experience another perfect storm of an economic cataclysm in the future. A storm that is similar to the one that led to the conditions that made compensatory trade techniques an indispensable means of business transactions in the 1970s and ‘80s. There are elements of countertrade still in practice today as well. The most prominent and widely used is “offsets” and “co-production” in military procurements among Western nations. 
Fig. 3 Compensatory trade is thriving around the world today.
 
If African countries employ the same type of pragmatic reasoning that attends the decisions of the advanced countries, they will see the crucial importance of the techniques of compensatory trade in their efforts to evolve prosperous societies. Conditions favor its adoption. African countries are cash poor. Because most countries in Africa are import dependent, they need to import large amounts of goods and services for their societies to function. African countries need to develop trade within the region so as to keep the resources of the region circulating and creating jobs within the region. The countries have tradeable goods. It all points to developing a trade alchemy that can lubricate trade-for-development. The trade alchemy that African countries need is compensatory trade techniques. 

Figure 4 charts a typical “trade without money” compensatory trade transaction. While it does not literarily mean there is no money involved, it means that the transaction has been designed to not require the buyer to pay for any part of the foreign components in hard currency. The payment comes later, from the supply of, in this case, gas, but it could be almost anything that the supplier of the plant and machinery can convert to cash. Using the format of the Siberian-Gas-For-Pipes trade, African countries can develop industries to process their raw materials into finished goods for export. Rubber for tires; iron ore for steel; copper for copper products; bauxite for aluminum products; etc. It is the pathway for African countries to create a cascade of industrial jobs that will help to reduce unemployment and poverty.
Fig 4 Buyback Technique: Siberia-Gas-For-Pipes-Trade.
 
Tourism in Africa: Growth, Challenge, and Opportunity

by Nia Richardson

In the structure of a thriving economy there is a sector that is capable of weaving through all opportunities of financial growth and development. That sector is tourism.

In the book Unleashed: A New Paradigm of African Trade with the World, John I. Akhile Sr. notes that tourism is as vital to a nation’s brand as the exchange of goods and services, because it presents the country to the world and opens up a rapid flow of economic activity. With their natural resources, rich culture, and thriving international business engagement, developing African nations have the potential to successfully incorporate tourism into their plans for economic growth.

Tourism is one of the fastest growing industries worldwide. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), it is responsible for the creation of 258 million jobs, contributing $6 trillion to the GDP, and $652 billion of investment worldwide. This growth has extended across Africa with a reported 33 million visitors to the continent in 2013, visiting destinations such as South Africa, Cairo, and Kampala. Leading hospitality companies, such as Marriott International and W Hospitality Group are tapping into the region and building hundreds of new hotels in major African cities.

While tourism has provided major economic stimulus for some African countries, building the capacity for its development is not without its challenges. Internal factors such as infrastructure and land access continue to be a barrier for the establishment of related businesses in some areas. Public health and safety continue to be concerns for tourists. Negative perceptions following events such as the Ebola crisis and recent terrorist acts have disrupted tourism in places like Kenya, which experienced an 11% decrease in foreign visitors following the attack at Westgate Mall in Nairobi in 2013. It is in the hands of individual countries and their governments to address such issues and bolster their positions as destinations that provide pleasant experience for visitors.

Nevertheless the outlook for tourism in Africa remains positive. Angola is slated to be the next prime tourist attraction by the WTTC and projects to experience a 7% rise in tourism by the year 2024. Gabon is also reported to be actively taking advantage of its natural resources to attract recreational tourism. In 2016, Rwanda will host the Africa Hotel Investment Forum, in which government and business leaders will strategize on creating vital tourism infrastructure in Rwanda and setting it as an example for other emerging African countries.

Related Links:

In this edition, we feature once again the endorsement from former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Dr. Justin Yifu Lin. After reading the book, Unleashed: A New Paradigm of African Trade with the World, Dr. Justin Yifu Lin sent a personal endorsement. 


“I share the same conviction and optimism with you about the future of African countries if their leaders have the vision to jumpstart export-oriented industrialization by using their abundant natural and human resources. Hope that the messages of your book will spread to leaders and intellectuals in Africa, take root in their hearts and convince them to take actions along the line of your suggestions.”  -Dr. Justin Yifu Lin, Honorary Dean and Professor of Development Studies at Peking University

 
John I. Akhile Sr.
Author
Gayle Cottrill
Editor
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