The Campaign Company specialises in social research and behaviour change. This is your guide to what we’ve been reading. Here’s what’s coming up this week:
Hello and welcome to the TCC Weekly – the Friday bulletin for people who know their TINA from their TIGMOO.
This week we look at whether communities can be re-engaged and populism tackled via Federalism. We also explore the concept of buyer’s remorse – are those hoping for regrets from Leave voters closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, behaviourally speaking? Plus, we look at regret and Values Modes.
And of course, there’s Charlie’s Attic, the “publish and be damned” TCC compendium, where regret remains an alien notion.
David Evans
Director
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This week David Cowling released this analysis of so-called ‘buyers’ remorse’ and Brexit. In the piece he concludes, using extensive polling data, that there’s little sign of regret about the outcome so far.
Politically, this is bad news for ardent Remainers, showing that if any regrets do kick in they’ll probably only do so once the UK is out of the union and repercussions are being felt. But an even more interesting aspect is contemplating the psychological reason underpinning the lack of buyer’s remorse.
As the columnist Daniel Finkelstein wrote some time ago (£), post-justification is psychologically powerful. Citing the social psychologist Elliot Aronson (see p125-126 of this book) Finkelstein pointed out that changing your mind usually comes after changing your behaviour – not before. Hence, people who have taken the action of voting for Brexit – perhaps without having given it much thought – will subsequently justify this action. This is an interesting concept and it will be fascinating – if Brexit does prove to be a mistake – to see whether public opinion changes.
The answer to populism?
The answer to populism is… federalism. So says Sam Alvis in a recent blog. The argument put forward is that federalising the UK (as the map below, taken from original source, visualises) would tackle the lack of agency which underlies populism. This would go beyond traditional devolution, delivering equal rather than subordinate powers for local regions.
It certainly seems like the author is onto something. Populism represents a failure of engagement – with easy answers triumphing over real choices – so there’s a good argument for saying that the further away power is, the lower trust and engagement will be. Our own experiences in communities very much chime with this. Whether dealing with tensions in a community or disillusionment with a local council, we find that populist anger almost always arises when people feel power is elsewhere.
The Values Lab is based on the Values Modes segmentation tool – created by Cultural Dynamics and used by TCC– which divides the population into ethics-driven Pioneers, aspirational Prospectors, and threat-wary Settlers. Take the test here to see which you are.
Values and regret
With it being GCSE results day this week, the question of taking and missing opportunities rears its head. Would getting that B rather than a C have changed everything?
Regardless of their results, anyone can do well in life. But who are the people that tend to feel things have worked out in the end? And who are the ones who ponder what could have been? We thought we’d pop this in the Values Lab, asking people whether they agreed or disagreed that “If I could live my life over again, I would change almost nothing”. (Those who said neither are not included in the table below).
“If I could live my life over again, I would change almost nothing”
Pioneers
Prospectors
Settlers
% who agree or strongly agree
34%
34%
31%
% who disagree or strongly disagree
42%
38%
48%
Agree minus disagree
-8
-4
-17
Interestingly, those agreeing most strongly were often Prospectors – although even they were more likely to disagree. These are perhaps the individuals most likely to value achievement and to think doing well in something like exams is important. Many Prospectors likely feel that you “make your own luck”.
They’re closely followed by Pioneers, meanwhile – who are more self-reflective and self-critical, but who also tend to be keenest to gain knowledge and try new things, and therefore may look back on their lives as a series of valuable learning experiences. This group might feel that applying yourself and doing your best is more important than GCSE grades on a piece of paper.
The least likely to agree, meanwhile, are the Settlers, who seem more regretful and disappointed than the other groups. Settlers are sometimes seen as feeling less agency, but at the same time they’re often nostalgic. Perhaps this question set these two characteristics against each other…
And finally, Charlie’s Attic, the perennially late coursework in the TCC weekly hand-in:
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