California and Quebec's quarterly allowance auction will take place tomorrow from 10.00 AM PT to 1.00 PM.

This month's Current Auction will offer 65 million allowances for the 2017 vintage whilst a small number of 2014 allowances will also be on offer. Over 9 million allowances for future vintages will be available for bids on the Advance Auction.

CC.info Expectations
For several reasons, CC.info analysts expect a strong result in this the first auction of the year.

The secondary market has seen buoyant trading so far in 2017, with the price front rising to the underside of the $13.57 reserve price faster than many commentators and stakeholders would have expected in December 2016.

Moreover, from a surplus perspective, the market can ill-afford a similar degree of undersubscription as witnessed last year - the current quarterly adjusted surplus now stands at just under 45 million. Stakeholders seem to recognize this, and will likely view the chance to pick up large quantities of allowances at the floor as an opportunity that may not be possible by the final auction of 2017.

It is because of these factors that CC.info expects auction subscription to be in the 0.8 < x < 1.0 band at the reserve price of $13.57.

As ever CC.info will be providing extensive coverage of the auction results with a statistical breakdown of trends and observations in our Post-Auction Review.

For analysis of previous auctions, please see Historical Auction Statistics

For market information and content related enquires, please contact: billy@californiacarbon.info

 

To discuss membership and subscription renewals please contact: rahul@californiacarbon.info