The timely confluence of current and historical events sets the tone for this week's digest theme: Russia. The Bear is stirring, awakened from its slumber of incompetence by a cunning tyrant, who has - if perhaps temporarily - remodeled Russia into a superpower. And now, with his American puppet in place, Czar Putin is poised to further disrupt the global order, creating havoc and violence for his own benefit, likely at the expense of many others, including his own people.
As always, happy Wednesday and happy reading.
This Day in History
1917 - The February Revolution begins, leading to the abdication of Czar Nicholas II and ultimately the establishment of Soviet Russia. So named because Russia then used the Julian - rather than the Gregorian - calendar, the February Revolution came about due to widespread hunger and famine because of Russia's disastrous involvement in WWI. Millions of young men were dying in the fight against Germany, and Russia's already weak economy collapsed further trying to keep up with demand for food and war materials. After a temporary government ended the war with Germany, civil war between revolutionary and loyalist (reds and whites) erupted in Russia, culminating in the victory of Vladimir Lenin's communist forces and setting the stage for a century of high and ongoing tensions, the most recent iteration of which is Russia's assault on American democracy via cyberwar designed to assist Donald Trump.
A History of the First Russo-American Cyberwar
Spoiler alert, we lost. The history hasn't been written yet, and the story is still unfolding, but there are things we know for certain that will be important parts of the historical record(from War is Boring).
First we know that Russia committed an act of aggression against America. A subversive one, but that makes it all the more powerful. While the assault was made with cyber weapons, as opposed to more conventional and scarier nuclear or biological weapons, if we pause and examine the situation we see that in this instance cyber weapons are actually psychological-weapons. Putin contributed to millions of Americans losing their minds, if not necessarily to support Trump, at least to believe Hillary Clinton had committed some dastardly treason, when in fact whatever she had done pales in comparison to Trump himself.
Secondly, we know that numerous representatives of Trump's campaign were in contact with Russian agents at times during the election. We don't know the details of why or about what, but we do know that multiple of them have lied about it, raising even more concerns about the nature of the relationship.
Finally we know what Putin's goals were: to undermine faith in our democratic institution, and to have Trump elected. He succeeded in doing both. Even just months after the election, the effects in America are disconcerting, how bad things become remains to be seen.
How It All Began
Very simply. It all began very simply. Operation Grizzly Steppe, the Russian code name for the cyber attack on American democracy, began with simple email phishing attacks on targets in the DNC (from Bloomberg).
Phishing is a simple tactic that involves sending a bad link to an email address. If the link is clicked, the sender gains access to the user's information. Often these attacks are laughably simple; have you ever gotten the emails from your long lost Eastern European second cousin or a desperate Nigerian princess, both of whom just your information to save themselves and pay you for it? That's phishing. Dressed up in a more sophisticated manner, however, phishing can be quite effective. What if you received an email from a colleague alerting you to an attack on your servers, and linking you to a site for new software? That's what happened to DNC - and presumably RNC - officials who were notified by their respective teams to protect themselves only to unwittingly allow access to their information.
And the rest is unfolding as history.
What's His Plan?
For much of its post-Soviet history, Russia has been synonymous with Putin. The former KGB agent turned thug strongman has been in charge for over a decade, and has assertively pushed to expand Russia's borders and influence, leaving bodies in his wake. Determining his motives and strategy will allow us to respond more effectively.
I can't speak to Putin's broader strategy, but an analysis does rule out some conclusions, for example that Putin responds in kind to perceived NATO aggression (from the Strategy Bridge). Understanding a man as complex and conniving as Putin necessarily involves a game of mental chess, and knowing which theories are wrong and which actions are distraction will help us thwart his destabilizing ambitions.
Throwback Black Market
Throwback because I have shared this article previously, but it's too bizarrely funny not to do so again. Want to guess what the hottest commodity is on Russia's black market? Advanced degrees, yes that's right, advanced degrees (from Slate). Putin's kleptocracy, entitled as they are, have been given all they have due to loyalty, and now demand prestige to give credit to their wealth. So they buy advanced degrees. This is an interesting and entertaining read about the culture of corruption that has developed among the Russian elite.
Sleepy Bear
Today the title really says it all. Not a dog named bear who is sleepy, but a sleepy bear. This is what I wish the Russian Bear were doing, but it's not. The Russian Bear is alert and active. He needs a tranquilizer. And I need more dog pics! I'm out of dogs! Send me your pets, your furry friends, your lovable critters yearning for hugs. Send them to me so I can feature them in the digest!
Will's Weekly Trivia - Spread the Word!
My goal in 2017 is to increase readers by 100. If you know someone who you believe might enjoy the digest, the dogs, or the trivia, please be sure to share Willful Intent's new opt-in form! And don't forget to submit any thoughts and dog pics via the feedback form!
IF you choose to answer the question, respond to staton.will@gmail.com with your answer. Please note that by competing you are giving me permission to publish your first name in the trivia leader board each week.
Last Week:
1. Which US President declared a war on poverty? ONE POINT
2. What is the capital of Finland? ONE POINT
3. Mesopotamia is usually considered the first area in which early humans settled and developed agriculture. What does Mesopotamia mean? ONE POINT
Answers:
1. LBJ declared the war on poverty.
2. Helsinki is the capital of Finland.
3. Mesopotamia means land between the rivers.
This Week:
1. The Julian and Gregorian calendars are both named for men who held which office/position? ONE POINT
2. What is an alternative spelling for czar? ONE POINT
3. Two major WWII battles were fought in cities named for Russian leaders. What are the names of these cities/leaders? ONE POINT APIECE
LEADER BOARD Check out the Leader Board! Is your name on it!?
