- México and USA -

The immigration issue

During his first month in office President Donald Trump tried hard at least with one of his promises: immigration. On his first address to Congress, Mr. Trump announced he was open to immigration reform. This is a striking shift from his unrelenting rhetoric on illegal immigration. Indeed, his speech offered a more restrained tone than his election campaign and his first weeks in the White House. “The time is right,” he said, for an immigration bill offering a pathway to legal status for aliens who have committed no serious crimes. Republican congressmen received Trump's announces with a standing ovation which makes us think they don't see the President's change of mind as an equivalent to “amnesty.” We are left to speculate whether to believe his words or pay special attention to his acts. Remember the speech came after a memorandum issued on February 20th by Homeland Security secretary John Kelly “Implementing the President's Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements Policies.”

The American Industries

1. No doubt the US is in urgent need of a comprehensive immigration law. If as promised Mr. Trump policies were to make growth faster, the shortage of labor for many American industries would worsen. With the legislation at hand, there is no way to allow immigrants to enter legally and cover the current needs.

2. The estimated number of undocumented immigrants in the US labor force is 8 million. And after Secretary Kelly´s memo, US firms are bracing for possible deportations. The agriculture and construction industries have relied on immigrants for decades to do tough, low-paying jobs US citizens often avoid. Many of these workers are undocumented. Foreign-born workers make up about three-quarters of the roughly 1.1 millions workers on US farms. Nearly half aren't legally authorized to work. In the construction industry, 13% of workers in 2014 were undocumented (Pew Research Center); 9% in the leisure and hospitality industry, which includes restaurants; 7% in business services; 6% manufacturing and 5% in the civilian labor force. If millions of illegal immigrants were deported the US would have massive labor shortages.
    

3. Also, it is important to remember that temporary or seasonal work permits under the framework of NAFTA have contributed to the creation of a legitimate labor market. Accordingly, one-third of the undocumented immigrants are DREAMERS (formidable human capital for the US), and most of the other 2/3 are either direct family of DREAMERS or direct family (parents or siblings) of US citizens.
    

4. Immigration reform with a path to citizenship will boost economic growth in at least 4% of GDP, according to independent research. It is also a fact that it will boost fiscal revenue, and increase wages.
    

5. There is at least one business sector that, right now, sees its future bright: investment in prisons bonds. Investors are scooping up bonds in prison facilities in Texas and Arizona. The uptick in interest in prison bonds comes on the heels of Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly’s memorandum instructing immigration enforcement officials to “take all necessary action and allocate all available resources to expand their detention capabilities and capacities at or near the border with Mexico.” An investor who paid $7,650 for $100,000 worth of Willacy County prison bonds that changed hands at a deep discount in December could have made an almost $60,000 profit by selling them by the end of February, based on trades tracked by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking.

The Government and Budget

6. The Migration Policy Institute reported in 2013 that the federal government spends more each year on immigration enforcement — through Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Border Patrol — than on all other federal law enforcement agencies combined. The total has risen to more than $19 billion a year, and more than $306 billion in all since 1986, measured in 2016 dollars. This exceeds the sum of all spending for the FBI; the DEA; the Secret Service; the Marshals Service; and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. To expel more criminals and unlawful immigrants Secretary Kelly actually will need to increase an already gigantic enforcement budget and, in fact, make government way bigger.

7. Homeland Security memorandum is an order for a deportation surge. Any undocumented immigrant who has committed even a misdemeanor could be “subject to immigration arrest, detention and, if found removable by final order, removal from the United States.” What are also known as the Trump's guidelines call for enlisting local US authorities to enforce immigration law, jailing more people while they await their hearings.

8. To achieve his goals Secretary Kelly has called for the hiring of 10,000 more ICE agents and 5,000 border patrol officers. Currently ICE has more than 20,000 employees, spread across 400 offices in the United States and 46 countries. The increase in the agencies operating budgets would cost about $4 billion annually.

9. Kelly also ordered to “surge the deployment of immigration judges and asylum  officers”. The backlog of cases in the Justice Department's 58 immigration courts has swelled to more than 540,000 from 325,000 in 2012. Some 250 immigration judges were assigned 200,000 cases in 2015. The average wait time for case is 677 days and can hit five years at some locations. More than 500 judges -who need a full team of translators, paralegals and clerks- would need to be hired to eliminate the backlog. A cost of more than a half billion dollars for this surge.

10. ICE and the Border Patrol already refer more cases for federal prosecution than the entire Justice Department, and the number of people they detain each year is greater than the number of inmates being held by the Federal Bureau of Prisons for all other federal crimes. Using the most recent available data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Migration Policy Institute estimated that 820,000 of the 11 million unauthorized immigrants have a criminal conviction, most of them related to illegal immigration itself. 90% of the 65,000 undocumented immigrants removed in 2016 from the US interior were convicted criminals, and about 2,000 were affiliated with gangs.

11. Housing an immigrant cost $125 a day in some precarious detention centers —a Holiday Inn could offer a better service for less–. The 31,000 beds in detention centers used to be reserved for convicted criminals and immigrants caught in the border. Kelly has instructed to grant parole sparingly, so immigrants whom ICE agents fear might not show up at their hearing could potentially be detained for years while judges work through the backlog.

12. The average cost of repatriating a person outside the United States — from identification, arrest, through removal — is $12,213, according to ICE sources. “This cost includes all costs necessary to identify, apprehend, detain, process through immigration court, and remove an alien.” It would take 20 years and cost the U.S. government $400 billion to $600 billion to remove all 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States and prevent all future unlawful entry, according to the conservative think tank American Action Forum (AAF).

The Immigrants

13. The US Government has said that there would be no mass deportations, however, it is evident that removals proceedings are escalating. White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, said that the president wanted to “take the shackles off” of immigration agents and now they feel emboldened. “Morale amongst our agents and officers has increased exponentially since the signing of the orders,” the unions representing ICE and Border Patrol agents said in a joint statement after President Trump issued the executive orders on immigration late last month. Bystanders are now being taken in if they are suspected to be undocumented, even if they have committed no crime, known within the agency as “collateral” arrests.

14. Though he addressed Congress in a less aggressive and more “presidential” manner, Mr Trump couldn’t help himself and used the opportunity to unjustly frame immigrants: He had four guests in the House gallery whose relatives were “viciously” killed by illegal immigrants and announced the creation of VOICE, the office of “Victims Of Immigration Crime Engagement” to help americans victims of immigrants “who have been ignored by our media, and silenced by special interests.” But the facts suggest the president's rhetoric is wrong. Recent research shows that the relationship between immigration and crime or terrorism is likely the opposite of what Trump seems to believe. Immigrants are less, not more, criminal than nonimmigrants and immigration rates are largely unassociated with crime rates. If there is a crime increase related to immigrants, it's a marginal one tied to poverty and theft. But on crimes that matter most — violent ones — a 2009 study of finds that "broad reductions in violent crime [...] are partially attributable to increases in immigration.”

15. It is clear then that the equivalency between undocumented immigration and crime is factless.  On the other hand, the Obama administration reached a record number of deportations mostly of those whose criminal records presented a safety risk.

16. In the absence of a comprehensive immigration reform, Obama's record on immigration policies is the following: a) reduced net undocumented immigration; b) deported record numbers of undocumented immigrants focusing in those with less than a year in the country and dangerous criminals, and c) granted temporary protections to Dreamers and working families, in a way consistent with human rights, under the DACA and DAPA Executive Orders.

17. Today communities of immigrants live in fear. Reports on ICE raids and detentions in airports and workplaces have increased considerably. The risk for undocumented immigrants of becoming victims of abuse from authorities or criminals have skyrocketed. Many parents stopped sending their kids to school and are avoiding exposure in social events and public places. Communication with local authorities has also been disrupted since a more committed role of police as immigration enforcers is been demanded from the federal government.

18. According to Mexican officials, since President Trump took office in January, the number of U.S. government flights landing in Mexico City loaded with deportees has jumped from two a week under President Barack Obama to three. Some 500 people are arriving daily including convicted felons and also many without criminal records. Some of them have lived for more than 2 decades in the US and don't speak good Spanish. Their impact on Mexican society and economy will be important and is still to be measured.

Mexico

19. Despite a possible opening on immigration, Trump´s little war with Mexico continues. In fact, one day before his celebrated Congress appearance, Trump told in an exclusive interview with the alt right Breibart News: “We’re going to have a wall. The wall is ahead of schedule. We’re going to have a wall and it will be a great wall and it will stop the drugs from pouring in and destroying our youth. And it will stop people from coming in that aren’t allowed to come in. But we’re going to have a wall and it’s ahead of schedule already now, and Gen. Kelly wants it badly now and everybody wants it...” And the following day to the President´s speech,  vice president Pence talked again about Mexico paying for “the wall”. He doesn't say how Mexico would pay, but Trump´s directive includes a review of all federal aid the US provides to Mexico. Trump ordered every executive department and agency to identify and quantify all sources of direct and indirect aid to the Mexican government over the last five years (funding for development projects, economic, humanitarian and law enforcement assistance)

20. Fencing -not to say wall building- will be challenging in many places in Texas that are virtually inaccessible. Just 115 miles of the 1200 mile Texas border are fenced. Landowners, environmentalist, security experts and politicians have blocked efforts for more. Lt. Gov Dan Patrick, a republican with a hard line on immigration, has proposed a mix of wall and technology.

21. “The relationship with Mexico is phenomenal right now”, said White House press secretary Sean Spicer short after President Peña Nieto canceled his official visit to the US and a meeting with President Trump. A previous tweet from Mr. Trump had inevitably led to the cancellation.

The truth is that on Feb 22nd the visit of Secretary Rex Tillerson and John Kelly to Mexico got a chilly reception. Mexico government not only have rejected any possibility of it paying for “Trump’s wall,” but it also refuses to accept his tougher immigration and deportation policies. “I want to make it emphatically clear that neither Mexico’s government or the Mexican people have any reason to accept provisions that have been unilaterally imposed by one government on the other.”

22. Trump's guidelines instructed local and immigration agents to send border-crossers back to Mexico to await proceedings, even if they aren't Mexican. No wonder, Mexican officials see the plan as an affront to Mexican sovereignty.

23. Of more than 400,000 people apprehended last year -until sept 30- more than 220,000 were from countries other than Mexico. Most were fleeing violence and poverty in Central America. In fact, accordingly to a Pew Research study immigration of undocumented Mexicans is lowest in two decades (and net negative, meaning, more people returning than coming).

24. Central America undocumented immigrants (the minors migrants situation) is fundamentally a human rights or humanitarian issue, linked to the violence of gangs and drug cartels fueled by US drug consumption and the ability of cartels to acquire weapons in the US. In fact, as an example, 70% of the crime scenes in Mexico are linked to weapons purchased on the US side of the border for lack of gun safety regulations or controls.

25. Kelly had a hard time promising in Mexico and Central American countries that no mass deportation would occur and that the military would not be used. His assertions occurred after a “leaked” memo published by AP stated that 100.000 national guards would be deployed to encircle unlawful immigrants. The administration later denied the truthfulness of the report. However, as an echo of that “balloon” or “fake news” and about the same time that Kelly talked to the Mexican government, Mr. Trump said that the enforcement was “military” because there are so many “hombres malos”, “bad dudes”, in the US.
     

26. The anti-immigrant rhetoric and action in the US is affecting Mexico’s political leaders and their posture towards the US. Trump has stirred anti-Americanism and it would play in Mexican elections in 2018. Now the position of left wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador seems emboldened. He is leading in early polls for the 2018 election, playing on discontent with the country’s economic underperformance and growing rejection of the corrupted political class.

27. The Mexican government has no alternative but to adopt a nationalist stand. Now it is linking cooperation on border security to Trump’s demands to renegotiate NAFTA. Border security gives Mexico leverage on trade. Mexico has its own migrant problems on its southern border with Central America, and its officials can easily decide they won’t cooperate as much as they have on fighting drugs or immigrant smuggling. Actually, nowadays the big wall that protects the US against a tsunami of illegal immigration is called Mexico.

28. William Brownfield, the State department's senior diplomat involved in drug policy, said that despite a crisis drug epidemic, the United States and Mexico were in a better position than ever to combat it. "In a sense, we have developed a law enforcement cooperative wall at this point without actually having the physical construction of a wall," Brownfield said.

29. President Trump remains convinced that an open border with Mexico is the bigger challenge for the USA. When Mexico announced its commitment to help immigrants challenge the US in courts with a $50 million fund, it only reinforced his perception that “Mexico wants to keep the border just the way it is because they’re making a fortune and we’re losing.”

30. If there is an imbalanced relationship between both countries, for Trump it is not only a matter of an ill-designed trade agreement such as NAFTA, but also because of immigrants' remittances to Mexico. The influx of new deportees will change Mexico and the potential loss of remittances from the United States could have devastating effects, particularly in rural areas. Last year Mexicans sent back home $25 billion, it is Mexico’s second-largest source of revenue.

We will be dealing with trade and some bad deals in our next report, for our forthcoming IQ America's Trade Issue.

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NEW FOCUS ON VENEZUELA?

The US Treasury Department denounced Venezuelan Vice-President, Tareck El Aissami accusing him of been a “prominent” drug trafficker. They proceeded by sanctioning him and freezing his assets in the US. El Aissami is not the first in the Venezuelan government accused of drug trafficking, and the sanctions against him are the result of a “years-long investigation” during the Obama administration. Also, not long before two nephews of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, captured in Haiti, were convicted for drug trafficking by a New York court. However, the accusations couldn't be more forthright. The Venezuelan government, as was expected closed ranks with his comrade while El Aissami, appealed to US public opinion by paying a full page in the New York Times and filling it with “alternate facts.”

We are not witnessing a change of focus on Venezuela by the new US administration. However, it was quite noticeable that on February 15th, just two days after announcing sanctions against El Aissami, and before meeting any other Latin American political leader, President Trump meet with Venezuelan opposition activist Lilian Tintori.  Tintori, accompanied by Senador Marco Rubio, asked Trump’s support in her campaign to release political prisoners including her husband, Leopoldo Lopez. After the meeting, Trump tweeted:

However, we still need to find out how much actual influence the USA could have to change things in Venezuela. The US will need to work with other Latin American countries and, particularly with its principal ally south of the border, alas Mexico, to pressure the Venezuelan government. The absence of a clear foreign policy toward Latin America and the strong rhetoric against Mexico could make this all the more difficult.

ECUADOR: THE END OF CORREÍSMO

Ecuador held Presidential Elections on February 19th. Lenin Moreno, the candidate of President Rafael Correa, got only 39.36% of the votes against Mr. Guillermo Lasso who obtained 28.09%. Now former banker Guillermo Lasso is seen beating Moreno in a runoff on April 2 with more than half of all valid votes, according to a poll by Cedatos. The opposition is likely to coalesce behind Lasso to put ad end to a decade-long period of leftist autocratic rule in the small Andean nation. The poll of 2,862 people conducted on Feb. 23 and 24 said Lasso would win 52.1 percent of valid votes, compared with 47.9 percent for Moreno. Cedatos said their numbers had a 3.4 percent margin of error.

Guillermo Lasso, a banker, has promised to call a Constituent Assembly as a “tool to cut down” the power structure of the correista regime. While Correa has been praised for the economic boom Ecuador experienced during his 10 years in office, the country faces an uncertain outlook. The country's economy shrank 1.7% in 2016 — a contraction brought about by the ongoing slump in oil prices. Many in the country have grown tired of Correa and worry his grip on power has abetted corruption. The Odebrecht graft scandal — related to millions of dollars paid out in bribes by a Brazilian multinational firm of the same name — has implicated officials from around the region. Several current and former officials at Petroecuador, the country's state-run oil firm, are wanted on bribery and money-laundering charges in relation to Odebrecht contracts. When the offenses in question allegedly took place, current Vice President Jorge Glas, who is Moreno's running mate, was in charge of Petroecuador.

COLOMBIA... PEACE AT LAST

Colombia's FARC guerrilla began surrendering their weapons under a landmark peace deal, marking the delicate transition from an armed group to a political party following more than half a century at war. The path is treacherous, and the process is frail. Perhaps the agreement’s most formidable opponent is not a right-wing political backlash but the stark economic reality of Colombia’s dirt-poor countryside. The Colombian government announced that it had confiscated more than $98 million worth of assets from dissident FARC factions that have refused to demobilize and join the peace process. This figure could be just the tip of the iceberg for the guerrillas multimillion dollar economy of the guerrillas. They generously fueled their industry of violence with profits from narcotraffic, illegal mining, and kidnappings. Organize crime is at the ready to fill the void and recruitment of former guerrilla men has just started.

MEXICO/USA – SECRETARY ROSS PRAGMATIC CONTRADICTIONS

Wilbur Ross, the United States Secretary of Commerce, is a founder and shareholder of at least eight auto parts factories in Mexico that supply the major automotive companies with key components. According to US Department of Labor records, Ross has moved at least 2,700 jobs from that country to Mexico since 2004. The Mexican paper El Universal reported that in 2006, together with a group of investors led by Franklin Mutual Advisers, he founded the International Automotive Component Group (IAC Group). The same year he acquired - through IAC - the giant Lear Corporation, one of the leading producers of established auto parts In Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. According to the IAC Group website, it maintains eight locations in Mexico, excluding Lear: Arteaga, Coahuila; Hermosillo, Sonora; Santa Catarina, Nuevo Leon; San Miguel Xoxtla, Puebla; The Marquis, Querétaro; Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila; Saltillo, Coahuila, and Toluca, State of Mexico.

COLOMBIA/USA  

Senators who did not want to miss Trump's inauguration are being investigated.  The Colombian Attorney General's Office opened an inquiry to determine if Mauricio Lizcano, president of Colombian Congress, traveled to the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20 with official expenses and per diem. The inquiry also links other Colombian senators that went to Washington to the inaugural ceremony without an invitation. SEMANA