The New Zealand hydro risk status returned to normal on 21 July 2017, followed by the South Island risk status returning to normal on 28 July 2017. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide weekly updates. As of Friday 4 August we have stopped providing daily updates.
Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate).
Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 36% of total storage, this is below the historical average (61% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 50% and 71% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 54% of total generation.
Hydro Storage Update
Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were slightly lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was a decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were higher than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have decreased slightly.
The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $141 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data
Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions
26 July 2017
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions
27 July 2017
Next Report
The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 15 August 2017.
