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News & Numbers from Good Judgment Open
Good Judgment Open presents
News and Numbers
What's the Consensus?
from the Monkey Cage US Election Challenge
The probability that the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election will also win the electoral college.
The probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected over Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. 
The probability that a third-party candidate will receive at least 5% of the vote. 
The Economist World in 2016 Challenge Wraps Up

Congratulations to alistaircookie, winner of The Economist challenge and the most accurate in forecasting Donald Trump’s rise to the top of the Republican ticket. Read more about the results of the challenge on our blog.
Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations



The Electric Vehicle Tipping Point Challenge has expanded its focus to include technological innovations in autonomous and self-driving vehicles. Read about how the challenge is changing on our blog and join the challenge on GJ Open to forecast on state regulations of autonomous vehicles and Tesla's plans to update its Autopilot software in the wake of some recent accidents.
Congratulations to BillionthChimp, adi, and ram1317 for winning signed copies of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction by forecasting on GJ Open in July. We're giving away three more copies of the book signed by Philip Tetlock, and you can win one by making a forecast on GJ Open in September!
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Follow @superforecaster for more updates about Good Judgment Open and Superforecasting, and be sure to check out our Superforecasting in Action blog.
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