We are pleased to announce a new Good Judgment Open challenge through our partnership with the
Arab Strategy Forum.  



What will the state of the world be in 2017? The Arab Strategy Forum is collaborating with Good Judgment Inc to launch a forecasting challenge on the future of the global economy, key geopolitical tensions, political ruptures in the Middle East, the world’s response to the refugee crisis and much more. Join the challenge and make forecasts on the political and economic issues that will shape the world in the coming year.

Your forecasts and comments will help inform discussion at the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai this December. 

Read more about the challenge and join the challenge to start forecasting.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction now available in paperback
 

Our co-founder, Philip Tetlock, wrote the book on state-of-the-art crowd forecasting. Dr. Tetlock, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and Dan Gardner, an acclaimed journalist, offer a masterwork of prediction, chronicling the findings from Dr. Tetlock's years of research. 

Superforecasting, a New York Times bestseller, is a fascinating, cross-disciplinary look into how intuition can be developed, and how it is particularly enhanced in an elite cadre of predictors called Superforecasters^®. Learn more about the book (now in paperback) here.

Monkey Cage: "Donald Trump's campaign is still on track to raise amazingly little money" 
 

Over at The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the current consensus on our Good Judgment Open question about Donald Trump’s campaign spending. Since the question opened in June, the crowd’s forecast has gradually shifted towards indicating that Trump’s campaign will spend a historically low amount of cash before election day.

Good Judgment Inc has a new website!

Learn more about who we are and what we do at 
goodjudgment.com

What's the Consensus?

from the Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017 Challenge