Geopolitical Risk + Opportunity: The Weekly Track
Welcome to Oxbow's Geopolitical Tracker what you need to know about geopolitics and its impact on global markets. Oxbow Advisory curates the most important news and content on geopolitical risk + opportunity across APAC, EMEA, and the US-Americas.
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Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia
Curation | Edits | Commentary
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Americas Fridays - October 14, 2016
GLOBAL RISK
100 Top Economies: Urban Influence and the Position of Cities in an Evolving World Order Cities have long been hubs of the global economy, both concentrating and facilitating the flow of people, goods, resources, and wealth. One thing is certain: cities—more specifically, metropolitan areas—are decidedly at the center of the global economy. -Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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EVENT WATCH
GPL || Global Policy Link
Luncheon
His Excellency Eerik Marmei
Ambassador of Estonia to the United States
November 17 || gpl.global/events
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U.S. + AMERICAS RISK
THE UNITED STATES
What Options Does the U.S. Have After Accusing Russia of Hacks? Now that the White House has formally accused Russia of meddling in the presidential election with cutting-edge cyberattacks and age-old information warfare, devising a response might seem fairly easy: unleash the government’s cyber warriors to give the Kremlin a dose of its own malware. -NYT
CECC Releases 2016 Annual Report -CECC
Despite the expectations of many that economic engagement with China would lead to political reform, fifteen years after China’s accession to the WTO, the human rights situation there is increasingly dire. The CECC’s latest report recommends Congress and the Administration press Beijing for greater transparency, adherence to universal standards, and development of the rule of law.
Countering China's Psychological Warfare An American narrative is needed to disarm China’s victimization rhetoric. -The Diplomat
The only American narrative on China these days belongs in a sandbox ... @oxbowgeopolitx
U.S. Lawyers Fret as the Saudis Bomb A Saudi airstrike that destroyed a funeral hall and killed 140 people Saturday in Yemen is a scenario U.S. lawyers have been worried about under international law. -Bloomberg
THE US ELECTION
How Geography Explains Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Because of its location, America can choose whether it wants to be a gatekeeper or a global policeman. -The Atlantic
Clinton: would have voted against fast-track authority for Obama Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said in an interview on Thursday that she would have been a likely no vote on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) if she still served in the Senate. -CBS News
John Kasich: Refusing to ratify TPP risks America’s role as the world leader
-The Washington Post
Across Europe, revulsion at Trump but little idea of what to do about him from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean coast, the prospect of Trump taking control of the world’s greatest power has triggered widespread anxiety in European capitals. It has also brought periodic outbursts from leaders who no doubt hope, perhaps in vain, that the views of America’s foreign friends will somehow make a difference among American voters. -The Washington Post
Trump Says He’ll Reverse Obama’s Executive Orders on Cuba -Bloomberg
Says "people of Cuba have struggled too long"
AMERICAS
Why Referendums Aren’t as Democratic as They Seem In Colombia, Mr. Santos presented the referendum as a vote on peace, but the opposition presented it as a decision on whether the country’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC, was entitled to leniency. Neither narrative fully portrayed the question of whether the peace deal would be worthwhile. -NYT
Brazil's former President Lula faces more charges A federal judge in Brazil has ruled that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will face further criminal charges. -BBC
Argentina's Macri Faces an Ugly Economic Dilemma -Bloomberg
Despite the challenges ... Argentina is back @oxbowgeopolitix
U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY
GLOBAL BUSINESS
Exxon Faces Collateral Damage From a New Cold War Russia has special significance for Exxon. Early in the 2000s, former CEO Lee Raymond came close to buying a stake in Yukos only to watch its CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky fall out with President Vladimir Putin and get arrested. -Bloomberg
Raymond didn't get his big Russian deal. But his successor, current CEO Rex Tillerson, did.
World Economic Forum launches San Francisco tech policy center -Reuters
Many "policies and regulations were written before the Internet was invented. Policy-makers don't know what to do"
Davos crowd seeking to stay relevant - @oxbowgeopolitix
Can Uber Conquer Latin America? After ceding China, the ride-hailing giant plans to double its presence in the region by the end of next year. -Bloomberg
GLOBAL MACRO
Preparing for the Post-QE World But there are risks as well. Permanent monetization assumes that the assets purchased through QE will never be settled by the debtor, the governments that issued them. The whole purpose of independent central banks was to prevent governments from using monetary policy to fund its expenses or its debt, so-called monetary financing. -Bloomberg
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Global Risk | Global Policy | Global Government Affairs
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Please do not hesitate to contact us, if you are interested in learning more about how Oxbow's risk advisory services protect and enhance global value creation.
Oxbow Advisory
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www.oxbowadvisory.com
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