When did you feel most like a Superforecaster? What was the forecast? What technique did you employ or data did you uncover that gave you a special edge on a question? Join the conversation on our Facebook page.

What makes a good forecasting question?
 

There is both an art and a science to writing a good forecasting question in order to render forecasts that are meaningful and useful.

Over at our Superforecasting in Action blog, the Good Judgment Team breaks down what goes into the making of a forecasting question, and how we're keeping score of the questions we ask on Good Judgment Open.

Colombia’s Peace Plebiscite: Why did forecasters fail to predict its rejection?

The crowd at GJ Open forecasted that the peace agreement between the Colombian government and FARC would pass with a probability of 99%. Colombians rejected the accord. What went wrong?

On our blog, forecasters who accurately predicted that the plebiscite for peace would fail tell us what they saw and how forecasters can avoid overconfidence in the future.