With only four days until Election Day, we've seen some movement in some of the governors races since last week. Candidates have been heavily advertising in the close gubernatorial races, and the effects are starting to manifest in recent polling. Recent troubles for Hillary Clinton surrounding the FBI investigation into Anthony Weiner have resulted in a surge in the polls for Trump, and having the effect of boosting Republican candidates' poll numbers down-ballot. Furthermore, the early voting that has taken place in many states over the past few weeks can provide key signals about what the final tallies will look like. This is our last update on the twelve gubernatorial elections, and though anything can happen between now and November 8, this is our take on how each of the races are leaning.

Click the candidate's name to view one of their recent ads, and click the links in the content below to view recent poll results. 

 

Delaware: U.S. Rep. John Carney (D) should handily win against State Senator Colin Bonini (R) in the race to replace popular outgoing Gov. Jack Markell (D). Carney has been polling well above Bonini, and the solidly blue state will almost certainly continue to remain with a Democratic governor.
Our rating: Safe Democrat

Indiana: Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) and former Speaker of the House John Gregg (D) are locked in a tight race, and with just four days until the election, this one is too close to call. Indiana is typically a red state, voting for the Republican presidential nominee 9 out of the past 10 elections. The state has also had a Republican governor since 2005, and with Gov. Mike Pence (R) as the Republican nominee for Vice President, conventional wisdom would predict another Republican to win the governorship. However, the most recent poll from Gravis shows Gregg with a 4 point lead, which is within the margin of error. Holcomb’s hopes may be boosted by changes in the Presidential and Senate races, which have swung more favorably towards Republicans in recent weeks. Polls show Trump up by about ten points in the Hoosier state, and the Senate race between Evan Bayh (D) and Todd Young (R) is now tied after Bayh held a large lead earlier in the race. Data suggests that the early vote has been good for Republicans, which may provide further help Holcomb make up the small gap shown by polling. This race will be a nail-biter.
Our rating: Toss-Up

Missouri: Missouri is another state where Trump’s recent surge in the polls looks to have helped the Republican gubernatorial nominee. Ex-Navy SEAL and political outsider Eric Greitens (R) is now shown to be tied in a Monmouth poll, and a Missouri Times poll shows him with a one point lead over Chris Koster (D). That same Missouri Times poll  had him Greitens down by 16 points just two weeks ago. Interestingly, Greitens had a similar experience in the Republican primary, where he was polling lower compared to his Republican counterparts and surged towards the end to win. Trump is up ten points in the state, and it appears to be helping candidates down-ballot. Furthermore, Missouri is a state where 98% of votes are cast on election day, since it has no early voting and very restrictive absentee voting. Data suggests this favorable towards Republicans, and Greitens also benefits from being a political outsider in a year where Americans are fed up with “career politicians”. Greitens has been outspent by Koster in this race, but Greitens looks to outspend Koster in the last two weeks of this race, which has erased the gap between the two candidates. Koster still benefits from being a conservative Democrat, but we think the tides are turning in Greitens’ favor in this political climate.
Our rating: Leans Republican

Montana: Incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) continues to try and hold off challenger Greg Gianforte (R), in an effort to keep control of the Governor’s Mansion. Gianforte has made strides in the past month, as his ability to self-fund his campaign has resulted in a flood of pro-Gianforte and anti-Bullock TV advertisements, which are boosting his numbers among Montanans. A recent poll shows Bullock with a two-point lead, which means that Gianforte cannot be ruled out. 75% of votes are cast before election day in Montana, though because their voter files don’t show party affiliation, we have no way of knowing how that turnout may favor either candidate. Though the Republican candidate has some mojo, it’s always harder to beat an incumbent. We think this race will come down to the wire, especially considering Montana is a red state and Trump is polling 10-20 points above Clinton.
Our rating: Toss-Up

New Hampshire: Executive Councilors Colin Van Ostern (D) and Chris Sununu (R) are still in a close race to become the next governor of the Granite State. We’ve said before that Trump’s performance in New Hampshire is very much tied to how well Sununu performs, and with Trump now either tied or leading in the state's polls, Sununu is reaping some of the benefits. Recent polls show him up by four points and five points, though we think the election results will be closer than that. Democrats are outspending Republicans within the state, but that appears not to be having a major effect on the race. Nonetheless, this is a state that we think is now leaning towards the GOP.
Our rating: Leans Republican

North Carolina: North Carolina is possibly the most exciting state to watch in this election, not only for the close presidential battle, but also for the intense battle for the governorship. Incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) faces Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and there has been a huge amount of money and attention focused on this race. The polls are as close as ever in North Carolina, with the recent polls showing the race to be virtually tied. A poll from Elon University shows McCrory and Cooper tied, and another from WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA shows Cooper with a one-point lead. One of the key things to look for in this race is the early voting results. Turnout so far has been relatively low among Democrats when compared to 2012, and the same goes for the African-American vote as well. Conversely, Republican early voting turnout has been higher than in past years, up by more than 90,000 votes from 2012. Though the initial early voting data appears to be more favorable to Republicans than to the Democrats, McCrory is still being outspent by a wide margin and Hillary continues to pour major resources into state. This will be a close race on Tuesday night, and at this point, we think the two candidates have an equal chance of winning.
Our rating: Toss-Up

North Dakota: Doug Burgum (R) should have no problem defeating Marvin Nelson (D) in the race to become North Dakota's next governor. Burgum is heavily favored and has the cash to far outspend Nelson, not to mention that North Dakota is a deeply red state. Burgum, the former CEO of RightNow Technologies, would continue the state's 25-year streak of having a Republican governor. Doug Burgum should handily win this race, and will be the next governor of North Dakota.
Our rating: Safe Republican

Oregon: Governor Kate Brown (D), who was sworn in last year after taking the position from resigned Gov. John Kitzhaber, appears poised to defeat physician Bud Pierce (R) in Oregon's special election. Brown is favored to win, and although some don't believe the race is a guarantee for the current governor, we think the solidly blue state will continue to remain under Democratic control. Democrats have the advantage when it comes to voter registration and Brown is polling well ahead of Pierce. We see Brown taking the victory here and carrying out the last two years of the Governor's term.
Our rating: Safe Democrat

Utah: Incumbent Governor Gary Herbert (R) is up against challenger Mike Weinholtz (D), a businessman and outsider in Utah politics. Herbert, who enjoys high approval ratings in the state, will become Utah's longest-serving governor when he gets re-elected on Tuesday. Recent polls show Herbert with an almost 40-point lead over Weinholtz, meaning this race is about as safe as it can get for the GOP.
Our rating: Safe Republican

Vermont: Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R) faces Sue Minter (D), the former Vermont Secretary of Transportation to become the next governor. Despite being a Republican in a solidly blue state, Scott is a moderate and popular among Vermont voters. Both President Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders have cut ads for Sue Minter, which is notable because it is one of the few times Obama has done that. Democrats are pouring money into the state to win the governship but it seems to be having little impact, as a recent poll from WCAX shows Scott up by seven points over Minter. It is still a close race, but because of Scott's popularity within the state and due to Vermont voters' distaste for outgoing Gov. Peter Shumlin (D), we think Lt. Gov. Scott will be the next governor.
Our rating: Leans Republican

Washington: Incumbent Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is seeking re-election against challenger Bill Bryant (R). Recent polls show Inslee with a healthy lead, and we expect Inslee to serve another term as governor. Democrats have held the position for the past thirty years, and Inslee is still up by double digits. The state is solidly Democratic, and we think the governor's race will play out no differently. 
Our rating: Safe Democrat

West Virginia: Jim Justice (D) and State Senate President Bill Cole (R) are in a tough fight to become the next governor of West Virginia. The last of the close gubernatorial races, we expect the decision to come in late on election night. The state has moved far to the right on the federal level, with Trump polling twenty points ahead of Clinton. However, this is not playing out quite as much on the state/local level, as this race is still quite close. Cole is boosted by the trend towards Republicans, and a huge Trump win favors him. That being said, Justice is running as an outsider in a year when that is playing particularly well among voters. On top of that, Justice has a few other similarities with Trump, including his successful business background and criticism of Hillary Clinton, which plays well among West Virginia voters. Polls have shown Justice in the lead, but none are too recent. At this point, it's anyone's to win.
Our rating: Toss-Up