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Oxbow Advisory's Geopolitical TrackerTM
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Geopolitical Risk + Opportunity: The Weekly Track

Welcome to Oxbow's Geopolitical Tracker what you need to know about geopolitics and its impact on global markets. Oxbow Advisory curates the most important news and content on geopolitical risk + opportunity across APAC, EMEA, and the US-Americas.

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Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia
Curation | Edits | Commentary

 
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
APAC Mondays - October 31, 2016


GLOBAL RISK

Three Threats to China’s Economy After a decades-long “growth miracle,” China’s economy has lately become a source of mounting concern. Some factors – from high corporate debt to overcapacity in the state sector – have received a lot of attention. But three less-discussed trends point to still other threats to the country’s economic development. -Project Syndicate

1. First, despite the decline in GDP growth, social financing – and especially credit – has increased.
2. The second risky trend is the rapid decline in fixed-asset investment, from 20% to around 8% today.
3. The third trend that should be worrying China is that unemployment remains relatively steady.
 
EVENT WATCH
GPL || Global Policy Link

Lunch with
His Excellency Eerik Marmei
Ambassador of Estonia to the United States

www.gpl.global/events
APAC || ASIA-PACIFIC RISK

CHINA


Xi Jinping Is China’s ‘Core’ Leader: Here’s What It Means China’s president, Xi Jinping, got a lift when the Communist Party gave him the title of “core leader” at a party meeting last week. But what does that mean for Mr. Xi and China’s political future? -NYT

China is struggling to keep control over its version of the past A battle is raging in the realm of historiography - Days before the party’s 350 or so most senior officials gathered in Beijing this week for a secretive conclave, a party website published a compendium of Mr Xi’s public remarks on the nihilist problem (intriguingly headlined: “Xi Jinping: There Can Be No Nothingness in History”) -The Economist

Beijing’s Adroit Diplomacy Is Isolating the U.S. in Asia While Washington has been diverted by the Middle East and an acrimonious presidential election, Beijing has been scoring strategic coup after coup -Time


JAPAN

Japan mulls deal to retrieve Russian-held isles by banning U.S. military from using them Tokyo might promise Moscow that returning the disputed islands off Hokkaido to Japan will not mean that U.S. military forces will be stationed there in line with Japan-U.S. security arrangements
-The Japan Times

Japan, China, S. Korea trade chiefs pledge to promote free trade talks -Nikkei Asian Review

Foreign workers leading growth of Japan Inc. An increasing number of Japanese companies are hiring foreign employees who have the knowledge and experience to immediately generate results. The trend will accelerate as more Japanese companies dive into the world of global competition.
-Nikkei Asian Review


TAIWAN

Tsai's cross-strait policy has nearly 50% backing: survey
-Focus on Taiwan

Taiwan-Japan Ties Deepen Amid Chinese Assertiveness If there is one issue leaders in Taipei and Tokyo can find common ground on, it is China’s destabilizing and assertive behavior. Beyond the impact of Chinese actions within the region, both Taiwan and Japan also share an economic dependency upon the mainland Chinese market. -The Jamestown Foundation

China No Longer Has a Taiwan Strategy Short of military conquest, there is very little in the current set of options available to Beijing suggesting that “peaceful unification” is even remotely possible. -The National Interest


SOUTHEAST ASIA

Vietnam's Military Modernization After extraordinary growth in military hardware, Vietnam is consolidating its new gains. -The Diplomat 

Duterte's 'pivot' to China Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's anti-American tantrum may seem Trumpian in its primitivism but, even so, the clear winner in this round of Asia's geopolitical "dating game" is China.
-The Korean Times


APAC || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY

GLOBAL BUSINESS


If Didi wants to go global, it’s going to have to piss off a few friends Didi Chuxing president Jean Liu dropped a bit of a bombshell: “We intend to be global” Jean revealed. “We aspire to be a global company.” -Tech in Asia

Amazon Starts Prime Service in China to Compete With Alibaba Amazon.com Inc. has started offering its Prime free-shipping service in China, ratcheting up attempts to compete with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. -Bloomberg 

Chinese firms are investing heavily in American hotels About 2m Chinese visit the country each year; that figure is expected to rise to over 3m by the end of the decade. But it is not just Chinese tourists who have been enjoying American hospitality; it’s Chinese investors, too. -The Economist

China: Boycott of our goods will hurt Indians -The Times of India

Nissan Given Assurance U.K. to Seek Tariff-Free Brexit Deal -Bloomberg

Microsoft launches first IoT innovation hub Based in Taipei, Taiwan, in Asia Microsoft launched its first IoT (internet of things) innovation hub in Asia, aiming to link startups, research institutes, and local partners -Tech in Asia

Indonesia up 15 places in Ease of Doing Business index Government efforts to deregulate the economy has caught global investors’ attention as Indonesia’s ranking in the Ease of Doing Business index for 2017 has climbed 15 places to 91, from the previous rank of 106. -Jakarta Post


GLOBAL MACRO

Iran’s oil sales to Asia up 92% -PressTV

The risks and benefits of China weakening its currency So, as I predicted, the China plenum didn't shed much light on what the country's leaders are thinking about the economy. -BBC

China Gets Desperate About Debt With its debts surging and growth sluggish, China has hit on a new strategy to revitalize its ailing economy. It’s the same as the old strategy. Only this time, it won’t work. -Bloomberg View



 
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Disclaimers
 
Oxbow Advisory’s Geopolitical Tracker™ and its content are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute professional advice or any services to you, and do not   necessarily reflect the opinions of Oxbow Advisory or any of its employees or clients. The information herein should not be construed as investment advice of any kind.

Oxbow Advisory does not provide investment advice, including but not limited to; rating or recommending any security, providing advice as to the value of any security, or providing any advice regarding the advisability of investing in, the purchase, trade, or sale of any equity, bond, currency, or, commodity, and/or other financial product or service.

The information herein is not intended as any investment service or advice in any jurisdiction. Nothing herein is to be considered as either creating a client relationship between
the reader/user and Oxbow Advisory or as rendering of any professional advice or service for any specific matter.
 
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