MIKE'S WEEK IN REVIEW
What Mattered This Week
The transition to a new presidential administration is a huge undertaking, and it's got to be even tougher for a Trump team that has considerably less government experience overall than any incoming administration in recent memory. The Trump transition got off to a rocky start, but once Chris Christie was let go in favor of VP-Elect Mike Pence, things started to move along more smoothly. There are only two months until Inauguration Day (January 20), but if Donald Trump's transition keeps up its current pace, they should be reasonably well-prepared to take over the reins of power - that is, to the extent that any incoming administration is prepared. (It's a job with an *awfully* steep learning curve.)
Liberals are not pleased with the picks Donald Trump has announced, and with good reason: Jeff Sessions, the Alabama senator who will be Attorney General once the Republican Senate confirms him won't be nearly as interested in going after minority-unfriendly 'voter fraud' laws, and he’s also an avowed opponent of marijuana legalization - setting up a potential clash with the many states that have legalized pot. (It also sets up a clash with President-Elect Trump, who seems inclined to let the states do what they will on this issue, which is essentially the Obama administration position.) There are also legitimate concerns about racist remarks that Sessions may have made in the past.
Trump's picks for CIA Director and National Security Advisor - Rep. Mike Pompeo and retired General Michael Flynn - are both outspoken critics of the Obama administration’s handling of the war against what they call 'radical Islamic terrorism', and it seems reasonable to expect stepped up rhetoric and some change of course in how the US handles its struggle against the terrorist threat. Critics see them as obnoxious hotheads who are likely to make matters worse by bringing back torture, further inflaming anti-US sentiment in the Middle East, and putting Muslims in the country under threat. I don’t think President Obama has handled the terrorist threat as well as he could have, but I’m skeptical of what seems to me to be the bombastic and overly-simplistic approach that seems to be emerging from the Trump administration.
But it's the choice of Steve Bannon as Donald Trump’s chief political strategist that has caused the most concern. And rightly so, because even if Bannon isn't himself a racist, it's hard to deny that Breitbart News - the website he ran before coming on to the Trump campaign - is an inflammatory, sensationalistic media outlet that has given a great deal of encouragement to racists. Given how much Donald Trump loves brash outsiders and values loyalty, it's hard to see how he wouldn't have named Bannon to a key position in his administration. This appointment is a slap in the face to the millions of Americans who see Bannon as a symbol of hate and intolerance. We can only hope that Trump remembers his promise to be a president for all Americans, and ignores much of what I expect to be the divisive and destructive advice of Steve Bannon.
On a more positive note, the fact that Donald Trump may be considering Mitt Romney for Secretary of State suggests that he's interested in reaching out to the GOP Establishment to staff some critical positions, as he did with his selection of Reince Prebius as White House Chief of Staff (generally regarded as the second most powerful position in the White House, after the president, of course). I'm betting Romney doesn't get the job, but even so, the fact that Trump had a long meeting with an establishment Republican who was a very vocal Trump critic is a good thing.
Another potentially good thing is an announcement by the transition team that members of the Trump administration will face a five-year lobbying ban when they leave. This would be a big change from the current two-year ban, though a lot will depend on how the ban is structured - whether, for instance, it only prohibits direct lobbying, and allows former Trumpers to be unofficial advisors to lobbying groups - and if there will be any real enforcement.
More worrying to me is the potential for massive conflicts of interest. Unlike past presidents, Donald Trump's financial holdings are huge, which in and of itself presents problems. And his unwillingness to set up a blind trust means that there's a very real possibility of Donald Trump being able to influence domestic and foreign policy decisions to enrich himself. My hope is that he's less concerned with lining his pockets, along the lines of Russian leader Vladimir Putin (a man Trump has openly admired, and someone who has built up a multi-billion dollar fortune while in office) and more concerned with his historical reputation.
The Democratic Party is beginning to move on, amidst many calls for a big change in direction. Some Democrats are arguing that the party has to focus more on less educated white voters, particularly in the Rust Belt states that used to be Democratic strongholds. Their champion could be Tim Ryan, a young(ish) Democrat who represents a district in Youngstown, Ohio - the heart of the Rust Belt. Ryan is challenging Nancy Pelosi - a not-young Democrat who represents ultra-liberal San Francisco - for the position of House Minority Leader. I think that the Democrats should stick with the experienced Pelosi, who is also one of the best fundraisers her party has. The biggest mistake the Democrats could make now is over-reacting to this election. Donald Trump got about all he could out of a shrinking portion of the electorate, and demographics favor the Democrats in the longer run. We live in a culture that hates the idea of standing pat, but sometimes the best thing to do is *not* to change.
Another big decision Democrats will be making is who will lead the Democratic National Committee. Keith Ellison, an African-American Muslim representative from the Minneapolis area, has the backing of many of the party's more liberal wing. He's running against Howard Dean, a former governor, presidential candidate, and previous chair of the DNC. Some might say that the 'optics' of having an African-American Muslim at the head of the DNC make no sense after the recent election, but I think that's overblown, especially considering how close the race was and how demographics tilt in the Democrats' favor. What concerns me is that Ellison would be a part-time DNC chair, whereas Dean could make the job his full-time focus. I have no doubt that Ellison is a smart and energetic guy, but given all the rebuilding the Democrats have to do at the sub-congressional level in advance of the 2018 elections, it's critical that this be a full-time job, and so I hope my party chooses Dean.
One thing I've been thinking about this week is what, exactly, Donald Trump has to prove, and who he has to prove it to. My take, which I realize may be overly optimistic, is that Donald Trump's main goal at this point in his life is to be seen by history as a great president. I think he's smart enough to realize that he won't be seen that way if he plunges the economy into a recession or he ends up significantly setting back the advances made by minorities in the US. I don't think that Donald Trump's policies will 'make American great again', but I hope he's enough of a pragmatist to realize when something he's done hasn't worked and to change course. I also hope that I can be open minded enough to give him credit if credit is due, while at the same time being a steadfast opponent of his policies that I believe will do harm to the country.
Recommended Reading
An Establishment Conservative’s Guide to the Alt-Right
There’s been a lot of talk about the so-called ‘alt-right’, much of it very superficial (of course). While I believe this article soft-pedals the racism of the movement, it’s the most comprehensive and clear explanation of the movement I’ve come across.
Trump’s coalition won the demographic battle. It’ll still lose the war.
I keep on telling my fellow liberals that demographics are on our side. Conservatives are pointing to this election as ‘proof’ that that’s not the case, but a closer examination of demographic trends – as this article from political scientist Ruy Teixeira – shows why things should get better for Democrats.
What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class
I’ve read an awful lot about Trump voters. This is, by far, the best article of the bunch.
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JAY'S CORNER
Your High School Guidance Counselor was Right: What Do We Do About Now?
"You go visit John Bender in five years. You'll see how god damned funny he is."-- Vice Principal Richard Vernor, in 'The Breakfast Club', 1985.
If you grew up in the 1980s, you remember John Bender. He was the wise-cracking, pot-smoking, denim-and flannel-wearing burn-out. He drank, he smoked, and cut class. He was rude and crude. He didn't vote then, but this year he did. And he voted for Donald Trump.
To understand why, look at what happened to the rest of the Breakfast Club over the last 30 years.
Brian - the Geek - went into tech and made killing. And beyond the material benefits of being "a brain"- and in no small part because it them - it's now cool to be a geek. Brian is now rich, and popular.
Claire - the Princess - also did fine. Of course, she had family money, high social status, and good looks to fall back on. She went to an expensive private school where she majored in something like Art History. She married a young man of similar status who became a doctor, a lawyer, or took over his family's business. She spends her time volunteering for worthy causes and raising kids who are a lot like Brian.
Andrew - the Jock - got a scholarship to a state school and graduated with a business degree. His work ethic and people skills landed him a mid-level position in the corporate world. He doesn't have the wealth or cultural primacy of Brian, but he enjoys a comfortable life with his wife and kids in the suburbs. He drives a nicer car and lives in a bigger house than his blue collar parents.
Allison - the Basket Case - found her niche in college, doing something artsy and listening to Depeche Mode. She owns a artisanal bakery in Portland or San Francisco, where she serves gluten-free croissants and cold brew coffee to people like Brian and Claire.
After 30 years, Vernor's prediction about Bender has proven true. That's because the economic and social trends that set the stage for the modern economy were all there in that library detention in 1985. Technology was reducing the need for unskilled labor. Globalization was already underway, and the world was moving to an economy that placed an increasingly high value on tech and communication skills, and gave short shrift to labor. After high school Bender worked a couple minimum wage jobs. Eventually he got hired on at the local factory/plant/mill. He made decent money, but didn't see his paycheck increase year to year. Then the plant started laying people off. Then it closed. Some his former co-workers applied for and received disability. Many lost homes to foreclosure after 2008. Some struggle with addiction.
Bender doesn't think much about politics and he only turns out to vote every four years. To him, politicians are phonies and crooks. The virtue that Bender values most is authenticity - being who you are, and not being afraid to "tell it like it is." When it comes to Donald Trump, where the Claires and Brians of the world see vulgarity, Bender sees the authenticity that speaks to him.
Bender doesn't 'hate' anyone because of their race, gender, orientation, or religion. But he has the sense that the Democratic Party cares more ferreting out race and gender microaggressions (though he would never use that word) than it does about the needs of 'regular' Americans like him. He doesn't hate Muslims, but he sees the news from Syria, and wonders why Democrats seem hellbent on bringing those problems over here. Likewise, Bender's had a few run-ins with the law over the years, and doesn't get why millions of people are here illegally, and the government won't do anything about it.
Typical Republicans are just as bad in his mind. He's put off by the holier-than-thou types who talk about family values, and has no use for the rich guys who get richer by moving their operation to Mexico or China
You can argue about whether his worldview is correct. But that's how he sees it. To Bender, the fact that Trump ruffled so many feathers among the well-feathered proves that he must be on to something. Sure, Trump made some outrageous and offensive statements, but Bender's heard worse. Bender is also an expert at spotting hypocrisy. He knows that a lot of the college educated women shocked by Trump's 'grab her p****' monologue read 'Fifty Shades' on their iPads. He knows that Hillary Clinton didn't blink when Jay-Z fired off multiple n-bombs at her pre-election rally. He knows that on a basic level, the appeal to identity politics is all a put-on.
Commentators on both the left and right have pointed out that Bender's problems are due, at least to some extent, to his own bad decisions. He shouldn't have goofed off in high school. He should have gone to college, or learned a skilled trade as the world was changing. He should have listened to Vernor.
The problem is, there is no way to rewind the tape and let Bender try again. Like it or not, just like in 1985, we're all sitting in Saturday morning detention together. And he's not going away, and he's not going to change anytime soon. Bender voted for Trump not just because he's been left out of the new economy, but because the mainstream of both political parties, and most of our culture, ignored him. Rather than try to understand him, they (we) wrote him off as a racist, misogynist, nationalist - seeing him as they wanted to see him, in the simplest terms, the most convenient definitions. Don't you forget about him.
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COMING ATTRACTIONS
Mike recently interviewed George Mason University economist Bryan Caplan, author of The Myth of the Rational Voter. Look for their conversation to air on Wednesday, December 7.
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