Geopolitical Risk + Opportunity: The Weekly Track
Welcome to Oxbow's Geopolitical Tracker what you need to know about geopolitics and its impact on global markets. Oxbow Advisory curates the most important news and content on geopolitical risk + opportunity across APAC, EMEA, and the US-Americas.
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
EMEA Wednesdays - December 7, 2016
GLOBAL RISK
Europe’s Secret Bailout While the world worries about Donald Trump, Brexit, and the flow of refugees from Syria and other war-torn countries, the European Central Bank continues to work persistently and below the public radar on its debt-restructuring plan – also known as quantitative easing (QE) – to ease the burden on over-indebted eurozone countries. -Project Syndicate
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EVENT WATCH
GPL || Global Policy Link
Lunch with
Matthew Devlin
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EUROPE
The Populist-Putin-Trump insurgency against liberal Europe The new axis between Trump’s America, Putin’s Russia, and European populists represents a toxic mix for the liberal order in Europe. -European Council on Foreign Relations
Where European democracy goes to die EU leaders are fast-tracking legislation. Critics say lawmaking is pushed out of public view. -Politico.eu
ITALIAN ELECTION Italian voters have rejected Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms His plan to reform Italy’s constitution was not rejected on December 4th by a margin of five or even ten percentage points, as the polls had suggested: the gap between No and Yes was a mortifying 20 points in Italy proper. -The Economist
CDU confirms Merkel as chairwoman and chancellor candidate Germany's conservatives have re-elected Angela Merkel as their party leader -DW
Angela Merkel endorses burka ban 'wherever legally possible' -DW
FRENCH ELECTION Alone and unpopular, France's Hollande throws in the towel French President François Hollande said on Thursday he would not seek re-election next year -France24
AUSTRIAN ELECTION EU leaders rejoice at Alexander Van der Bellen in Austrian election Reacting to the rise of Donald Trump and the fallout from Brexit, Austrians voted for the pro-European Union candidate. -DW
RUSSIA
THINK TANK TRACKER >> Evaluating Western Sanctions on Russia -Atlantic Council
Timely report re viability of sanctions under Trump and changing political landscape in EU
Who’s afraid of a little Russian propaganda? -Politico.eu
Putin Jumps on Trump’s Syria Pivot to Strengthen Hand in Mideast Vladimir Putin is seizing on President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to reverse U.S. policy on Syria to press for a military victory that could mark Russia’s return as a great-power rival in the wider Middle East. -Bloomberg
THE MIDDLE EAST
Russia, China veto UN resolution on Aleppo truce Russia and China on Monday vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a seven-day ceasefire in the embattled Syrian city of Aleppo. -France24
Saudi Arabia condemns 15 Shiites for spying for Iran -DW
AFRICA
U.S. worries about spiraling violence in South Sudan: State Department -Reuters
Gambia's President Jammeh concedes defeat in election Gambia President Yahya Jammeh has congratulated opposition coalition leader Adama Barrow, who won the most votes in an election that will remove Jammeh from power after 22 years. -France24
EMEA || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY
GLOBAL BUSINESS
Microsoft gains EU approval for $26 billion buy of LinkedIn -Reuters
Creating a single market in Europe means data must also travel freely Swedish and Belgian ministers call out EU leadership for backpedaling. -Politico.eu
Facebook, Twitter, and Google are still failing to curb hate speech, EU says Tech companies may face new legislation after struggling to comply with voluntary code of conduct -The Verge
For Italy, instability is business as usual Worry less about a political mess. Do worry about the banks. -Politico
JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole Fined $521 Million Over Euribor -YahooNews
German utilities win compensation for nuclear phaseout Germany's highest court has ruled in favor of three power companies in a dispute over a government decision to phase out nuclear energy. The companies claimed compensation for shutting down their expensive plants. -DW
#RoL
GLOBAL MACRO
Markets Count on Draghi to Extend ECB's QE Program -Bloomberg
The Italian Trouble for Greek Debt If the fallout for Sunday's Italian referendum is bad for Italian bonds, it could well be worse for one of Europe's star performers this year: Greece. -Bloomberg Gadfly
Economists urge rate hike to stem Turkish lira sell-off The Turkish government's attempt to launch state tenders in the lira currency and President Erdogan's call for Turks to sell foreign exchange will not be enough to shore up the tumbling currency -DW
Oil falls 2 percent on output cut skepticism, OPEC and Russia output rise -Reuters
Africa Is OPEC's Biggest Danger OPEC oil ministers managed to put flesh on the bones of the output cut they announced in Algeria in September. But their hard work might be undermined by the countries exempted from the deal: Libya and Nigeria. -Bloomberg
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Global Risk | Global Policy | Global Government Affairs
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