Technical
Cereals:
|
Auckland /Waikato |
Manawatu |
Canterbury |
Barley |
400 |
+40 |
365-400 |
+20-55 |
300-310 |
+15-25 |
Maize |
420 |
+40 |
385-400 |
+25-35 |
na |
na |
Wheat |
410 |
+35 |
385-400 |
+25-35 |
290-310 |
nc to +20 |
Barley: At a glance – demand and price increases.
A sudden upward change in the barley market from last month’s October report.
Since the Kaikoura earthquake, the freight north was initially a challenge, with extra cost and time on trucks, as rail freight is no longer an option. Containers of grain are being moved by boat to Auckland and bulk shipments are being off loaded in Wanganui. This is to service the southern North Island where increased interest from dairy farmers leading to extra demand, which is reported as being slow to steady. This has led to a ‘cleaning up’ of stocks of all grains. Imported grain to supply the upper North Island will be an option if prices continue to rise.
In the South Island the barley price has increased and supply has tightened. The dairy sector is reported as “coming back to life” and buying more with steady demand. The backlog of old season barley is being cleared and this is being ‘eroded’ with commentators reporting “bits and pieces” now going to dairy farmers. They expect this demand to pick up. Contacts predict there will not be a large carry over of stocks into 2017.
Looking forward to the new season, current crops are described as being “excellent”, “couldn’t be better”, “looking fantastic”, and “very good but could do with more sunshine”. Predictions are for good yields of good quality grain and while the yield potential is good, this is tempered by the comment that “we won’t know until it is in the silo”. Overall acreage is reported as being down by more than 20% from last season.
Wheat: At a glance- price increases but stocks still available
In the North Island, a similar situation to barley, in that product is having extra freight cost in bringing it up from the South Island. Imports from Australia are reported as being be a cheaper option at present. In the South Island wheat stocks are reported as being better than barley due to less demand from the dairy sector and the carry over into 2017 will be greater than that for barley. demand is reported as “flat” as barley is the preferred option for dairy farmers. Descriptions of the progress to date of new seasons crop are the same as for barley, in that they are very good. The area sown for feed wheat is reported as being similar to last year.
Maize: At a glance – Late planting and price increases.
Upper North Island: There has been a sudden pick-up in demand and now maize is reported as “hard to find”, with the comment that “not as much around as we thought”. The weather affected plantings, means crops are “well behind where they should be”, and this is leading to concern about yield potential because with the later start the crops will be more drought prone as we go into the summer.
In the lower North Island, Demand has picked up a lot, with the steady up take reported as “cleaning up” a lot of the stocks on hand. New Season crops are also late and behind where they should be due to wet weather and cold soil conditions. Contacts report that crops will not be “fence high by Christmas” and this will affect “yield potential”.
Proteins
Price/tonne |
NI |
SI |
MBM |
750-840 |
nc |
840– 921 |
nc |
Blood |
1100-1050 |
nc |
1100 -1238 |
nc |
Fish meal |
2650 |
nc |
2025 |
nc |
SM Blend |
1375 |
nc |
1575 |
nc |
Ext soya |
675 |
nc |
788 |
nc |
Soya Oil |
1300 |
nc |
2398 |
+198 |
Tallow |
1080-1100 |
nc to +100 |
1080-1110 |
nc to 100 |
Lysine ( kg) |
4.0 |
nc |
2.25 |
nc |
Methionine (kg) |
11.50 |
nc |
6.00-6.66 |
nc |
At a glance – Firming of meat and bone meal and blood meal
This month
porkoutlook contacts indicate reductions no real movement in ingredient prices at present apart from some upward shift in tallow reported from one supplier. However, there are predictions from contacts that most proteins will increase in the New Year.
Pig meat prices
|
Auckland/ Waikato |
Manawatu |
Canterbury |
|
$/kg |
trend (cents) |
$/kg |
trend (cents) |
$/kg |
trend (cents) |
pork |
3.95-4.05 |
nc |
3.90-4.00 |
nc |
3.85 |
nc |
bacon |
3.85-3.95 |
nc |
3.80-3.90 |
nc |
3.65 |
nc |
chopper |
1.55 - 1.65 |
nc |
1.55 – 2.00 |
nc |
2.00 |
nc |
Note: Prices above relate to: Pork D1 class, Bacon H2 class
Schedule comment
At a glance – No change to pigmeat prices in November
During November, the market was reported as being “steady”, “steady inquires”, “pick up in demand happening”, “maintaining customers”,” customers loyal to NZ product”, “bringing pigs forward to meet demand” “in balance” “no upward pressure on price”, “demand for extra pigs not strong” and “will be good until Christmas”. The Kaikoura earthquake caused little market disruption with supply being able to be substituted and the transport links quickly re- established from the South Island. However there is extra freight cost and a much longer trip.While wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Hogsnort states that he “hopes the status quo for demand lasts up to Christmas and the pork market demand continues into the New Year in a steady as she goes basis. This will be necessary to get through the period of short weeks and then for demand to pick up in February.” Hogsnort “looks forward to more pigmeat price rises in 2017 than this year and when the increases come they need to be closer together than they were in 2016.”
Ian Barugh