Geopolitical Risk + Opportunity: The Weekly Track
Welcome to Oxbow's Geopolitical Tracker what you need to know about geopolitics and its impact on global markets. Oxbow Advisory curates the most important news and content on geopolitical risk + opportunity across APAC, EMEA, and the US-Americas.
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Americas Fridays - December 16, 2016
Head for the Bunkers? Nearly two years ago, former US National Security Adviser and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that, “as we look around the world, we encounter upheaval and conflict.” As Kissinger observed at the time, “the United States has not faced a more diverse and complex array of crises since the end of the Second World War. -Project Syndicate
The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty -Project Syndicate
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UNITED STATES
Is the US Losing East Asia to China? The trend in emerging rifts between a number of formerly U.S.-centric East Asian states and the Obama administration had been visible, under the radar, for several years. However, in the last few weeks and months before the American elections, there was an eruption of anti-American sentiment, principally from the increasingly populist-oriented democracies of Southeast Asia. -The Diplomat
Obama pledges to 'take action' against Russia President Barack Obama vowed to take retaliatory action against Russia for trying "to impact the integrity" of the 2016 presidential elections, in an interview broadcast Thursday. -Politico
Obama to press Trump to preserve Cuba detente: White House -Reuters
6 steps for a bipartisan agenda on energy security -The Hill
First, Trump should prioritize modernization of energy infrastructure.
Second, Trump should support U.S leadership in energy diplomacy.
Third, Trump should launch a White House-led critical infrastructure protection program.
Fourth, the president should modernize and expand our electricity system.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
Senate fight looms after Trump taps Exxon CEO as top U.S. diplomat President-elect Donald Trump named the head of Exxon Mobil Corp, Rex Tillerson, as his choice for U.S. secretary of state on Tuesday and won backing from some Republican foreign policy figures ahead of a possible Senate fight over the oilman's ties to Russia. -Reuters
READ >> Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power – Coll
[h/t Pacific Business Insider]
Trump team issues Tillerson talking points to Hill GOP In talking points sent to the Capitol Tuesday, the Trump transition advises GOP senators to push back on criticisms that Tillerson is too cozy with the Kremlin by saying the State nominee will be able to work closely with Russia on shared interests, such as battling the Islamic State, because of his existing relationships. -Politico
One talking point: Tillerson’s deep experience in competing with state-owned companies; an adversary of which the president-elect is clearly gearing up to engage … @oxbowgeopolitix
Is Trump Starting Something With China He Can’t Finish? Beijing laughed at Trump’s hard-right advisers. Now that he’s rewriting decades of U.S.-China policy, it's deploying bombers. -FP
Trump taps another retired general to run National Security Council -Politico
Trump picks a supporter of West Bank settlements for ambassador to Israel -NYT
AMERICAS
With Trump presidency, some see chance for Canada to embrace China -The Globe and Mail
Federal government commits to public consultation on potential trade deal with China According to Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland’s office, consultations — including online submissions from the public — will be “integral” to assessing whether “sufficient economic interest” exists to pursue a negotiation with China. -National Post
Skilling Up Latin America If Latin America is to move onto a path of sustained and inclusive economic growth, it will need to address numerous challenges – beginning with its lack of high-quality human capital. -Project Syndicate
U.S.-AMERICAS || GLOBAL MARKETS IMPACT + OPPORTUNITY
GLOBAL BUSINESS
Trump meets Silicon Valley elite after mutual mistrust in campaign -Reuters
Trump's tough trade talk makes U.S. firms fear China retribution U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's challenges to China on trade and Taiwan are rattling American companies who have long benefited from stable relations between the two countries but now fear retaliation by Beijing if Trump were to act. -Reuters
Notwithstanding news + objective reality (below) to the contrary – many US corporations in China seem to be reacting with hope; rather than rationally planning for the coming risks associated with the new political dynamics of the US-China relationship @oxbowadvisory
Rubio Introduces Bill Targeting Chinese Aggression in South China Sea U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) today introduced the South China Sea and East China Sea Sanctions Act, which would sanction Chinese individuals and entities that participate in Beijing’s illegitimate operations in the South China Sea and East China Sea. -U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Boeing Says China Plane Orders Support 150,000 U.S. Jobs a Year -Bloomberg
Shadowy forces are fighting for control of your local movie theater On a sweltering day this summer, a handful of protesters gathered outside an AMC movie theater in Times Square, holding red signs proclaiming -The Washington Post
“AMC = American Movie Communists"
We’ll be seeing more of these pieces … no doubt
Tencent Is on the Lookout for Hollywood Deals -Bloomberg
“In the future, we will work with Hollywood, which has professional expertise, and better explore the global market,” Cheng said. “We will also actively look for opportunities.”
DMV Threatens Legal Action After Uber Rolls Out Self-Driving Cars In SF The same day Uber started testing autonomous cars in San Francisco, the California DMV asked the company to cease its program until it obtains a permit from the agency. -BuzzFeed
American Airlines Cuts Flights to Cuba American Airlines Cuts Flights to Cuba Another possible challenge: political instability. -Bloomberg
Cuba wants to pay off some of its Cold War debt in rum -The Washington Post
GLOBAL MACRO
The oil and gas industry is quickly amassing power in Trump’s Washington After eight years of being banished and sometimes vilified by the Obama administration, the fossil fuel industry is enjoying a remarkable resurgence as its executives and lobbyists shape President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and staff his administration. -The Washington Post
“It feels like the grizzly bear in ‘The Revenant’ has been suddenly pulled off our chest,” said Luke Popovich, a spokesman for the National Mining Association.
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Global Risk | Global Policy | Global Government Affairs
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