Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate).
The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro catchment inflows.
The Risk Meter above is currently set to normal.
Current Situation
Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 81% of total storage, this is above the historical average (111% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 56% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 65% of total generation.
Hydro Storage Update
Controlled storage remains above average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was a decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were also lower than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have increased.
The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $38 per MWh over the last four weeks, this is lower than prices experienced this time last year.
We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data
Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions
20 Dec 2016
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions
26 Jul 2016
Next Report
The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 24 January 2017.