The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral. However, BOM says dry conditions are happening because of cool waters to our north west and a warming Pacific. El Nino likelihood is currently at ‘watch’, and it may appear in spring.

AV Weather is still disagreeing with the El Nino prediction, instead calling a possible move back to La Nina, or a continuing neutral phase. But he’s not confident about meaningful rain for the Riverina in August.

Random weather fact
I saw the meteor that zipped across our skies on Sunday night. My son enjoys tracking planes passing over Wagga using an app called Flight Tracker 24. I was looking at the night sky for a plane when it whizzed over my head and along my line of sight. Using the scale of stars as marbles, it was tennis ball size, and it had a tail. Amazing.
 

Drought politics
The politics of drought is unfolding in interesting ways. The intense dry of 2018 is disrupting most farm businesses in NSW, and in response there’s been the usual political ditherings as the weather plays out incrementally. Both the NSW and Commonwealth governments have now announced major assistance packages farm businesses and powerful tv images are spurring community fundraising to provide direct assistance to farmers.

However, there’s also an emerging movement in the agricultural community against this natural disaster welfare approach. Across Australian farm businesses, there are big discrepancies between good and poor risk managers. Those at the higher end want to leverage that skill, but are restricted in some part by subsidies for those struggling when business conditions are difficult. That frustration is now taking hold on social media.

While these complaints make economic sense, the human element of family farm ownership and their importance to local communities will always compel governments to provide direct support when enough people need it.
 

Protected cropping
Protected cropping is likely to grow significantly in the next 5-10 years. Being able to manage climatic conditions, pick niche market opportunities, and afford secure water supply is the kind of opportunity risk averse institutional investors are looking for. New technologies are making it more efficient and affordable, and renewable energy developments will also help reduce costs. Irrigation areas surrounding Griffith, Leeton and Shepparton are potential beneficiaries.