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It's time for another special congressional election, and you know what that means: it's time for all of us to try and figure what it will tell us about November.
Back in March, when Democrat Conor Lamb won that Pennsylvania House seat that Donald Trump had carried by 20 points in 2016, analysts were insisting that voters even in Trump Country were getting tired of the circus in Washington and wanted a change. Of course, one result in one district does not a wave make, but it did put both parties on alert that something could be afoot this fall.
Now we're looking at today's (Aug. 7th) special in Ohio's 12 District. It's the seat Republican Pat Tiberi gave up earlier this year (after 17 years in office), the same seat John Kasich held from 1983 to 2000. Trump won it by 11. And while the registration numbers in the district are not that one-sided, the fact is that a Democrat hasn't won the House seat since 1980 -- he only lasted one term -- and before that, 1936. It's fair to call this a Republican seat. But the reports I've seen suggest that the contest between state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and Franklin Co. Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) is too close to call. And should O'Connor pull a Conor Lamb, you know that Democrats are going to insist it's a harbinger for November. Trump and Gov. Kasich, usually at odds with each other, are both working to make sure that doesn't happen.
Four other states are holding primaries on Tuesday -- Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and Washington. But the one to watch is the GOP gubernatorial primary in Kansas. Incumbent Sam Brownback left the post earlier this year and his number two, Jeff Colyer, took over. But Colyer has his hands full with a primary challenge from Secretary of State Kris Kobach, nationally known for his crusade against voter fraud, real or imagined. Kobach played a leading role in Trump's ill-fated (and farcical) Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity. Trump has returned the favor, endorsing Kobach over the incumbent Republican governor.
I'll be tweeting primary results tonight @kenrudin.
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