Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate).
The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro catchment inflows. The Risk Meter is currently set to normal.
Current Situation
Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 54% of total storage, this is below the historical average (96% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 48% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 66% of total generation.
Hydro Storage Update
Controlled storage is slightly above average on the New Zealand hydro risk curve and is now below average on the South Island hydro risk curve.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were higher than the historical average for the time of the year and there was a decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were lower than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have also decreased.
The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $78 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data
Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions
29 August 2018
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions
21 March 2018
Next Report
The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 11 September 2018.
