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Labour Gains a Four Point Lead Over the Conservatives as UKIP Support Picks Up.

State of the parties (UK) (change vs 7th July 2018):

Conservative 37% (-1), Labour 41% (+1), Lib Dem 6% (-4), SNP 3% (NC), UKIP 7% (+4), Green 2% (NC), AP 4% (-2) 


Survation polled 1017 people aged 18+ living in the UK. Fieldwork was between 31st August and 1st September 2018. Full tables and further questions including leader approval can be found here.




As parliament returned from its summer break today, Labour begins the parliamentary session in with a four point lead over the Conservatives. The apparent boost in UKIP’s support is perhaps the most surprising finding from today’s polling; poll watchers should be cautious about reading too much into a single poll and a small sub-sample, however.

Chequers “Agreement” and Brexit Negotiations

This is the first voting intention poll we’ve conducted since the morning of the Chequers “agreement” which prompted a number of ministerial resignations and so the brexit-related “red line” questions asked in today’s poll may provide a reason for the Conservative party’s polling drift. Fewer than one in five (19 percent) think the government has handled negotiations with the EU well, against 57 percent who think they have been handled badly.

Red Lines?

When asked whether certain terms would be acceptable as part of the final negotiated Brexit deal, a majority of those polled said they would not accept either a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic (57 percent unacceptable to 21 percent acceptable). or tariffs on UK businesses seeking access to the single market (55 percent unacceptable to 25 percent acceptable).

Both of these potential terms provoked majority opposition across all party lines. Respondents also rejected the suggestion of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) having supremacy over the UK’s legal system by an overwhelming margin of 62 percent to 20 percent. The public had more mixed views on the issue of free movement,  as 42 percent would find no further restrictions placed on the rights of EU citizens to live and work in the UK an acceptable part of a Brexit deal, while 37 percent would find it unacceptable.

Notably, Conservative voters were the most vociferous in their opposition to the potential deal scenarios we mentioned in the poll. Four in five (78 percent) were opposed to a hard border on the island of Ireland, and the same proportion (78 percent) objected to ECJ supremacy over British courts. Sixty percent found the idea of tariffs on UK businesses unacceptable, and almost half (49 percent) insisted on greater restrictions on freedom of movement as part of any Brexit deal.

A majority of Conservative voters (55%) believe that Brexit will be good for the UK economy, in stark contrast to Labour voters (20%) and Lib Dem voters (18%).

Survation EU Deal “Red Lines” Polling, September 1st

Which of the following would you consider acceptable or unacceptable terms for the UK's final Brexit deal with the EU?

 

The EU imposing a ''hard border'' between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

 

Con 2017

 

Lab 2017

 

LD 2017

 

Remain ‘16

 

Leave ‘16

Unacceptable

78%

50%

54%

50%

80%

Acceptable

12%

29%

37%

31%

8%

Don’t know

11%

21%

9%

20%

12%

 

UK businesses having to pay a tariff for access to the European Single Market

 

Con 2017

 

Lab 2017

 

LD 2017

 

Remain ‘16

 

Leave ‘16

Unacceptable

60%

54%

44%

54%

60%

Acceptable

22%

29%

42%

29%

22%

Don’t know

18%

16%

14%

17%

18%

 

No further restrictions on the freedom of movement if EU citizens to live and work in the UK

 

Con 2017

 

Lab 2017

 

LD 2017

 

Remain ‘16

 

Leave ‘16

Unacceptable

49%

27%

21%

24%

53%

Acceptable

36%

53%

56%

59%

28%

Don’t know

15%

20%

22%

18%

20%

 

The European Court of Justice having supremacy over the UK’s legal system

 

Con 2017

 

Lab 2017

 

LD 2017

 

Remain ‘16

 

Leave ‘16

Unacceptable

78%

50%

54%

50%

80%

Acceptable

12%

29%

37%

31%

8%

Don’t know

11%

21%

9%

20%

12%

 




Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Con 2017

 

Lab 2017

 

LD 2017

 

Remain ‘16

 

Leave ‘16


Brexit will be good for the UK economy

55%

20%

18%

10%

61%


Brexit will be bad for the UK economy

26%

57%

62%

73%

10%


Brexit will make no difference to the UK economy

14%

12%

11%

9%

18%

Don't know

6%

11%

9%

8%

12%


 
  • Survation polled 1017 people aged 18+ living in the UK. Fieldwork was between 31st August and 1st September 2018. Full tables and further questions including leader approval can be found here.


Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.


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British Polling Council Statement


All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

To find out more about Survation's services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

About Survation 
Survation conduct telephone, online and in-person market research, as well as strategy & advisory research for well-known brands & organisations. Survation are members of the British Polling Council.


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