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Current Status as at: 23 October 2018

Outlook

Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate). 

We are currently investigating the impact of restrictions to gas production at Pohokura on security of supply. At this time we do not believe it is necessary to modify the assumptions of the Hydro Risk Curves regarding thermal fuel availability, i.e. we would not expect there to be a physical limitation to thermal fuel that would constrain generation of electricity in an emergency situation. This view may change depending on the outcome of our ongoing investigation. We are also investigating the impact of future generator outages on the Hydro Risk Curves. We will provide further updates as more information becomes available.

The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro catchment inflows. The Risk Meter is currently set to normal.

Current Situation 

Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 35% of total storage, this is below the historical average (69% of average) for this time of the year.

Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 48% and 71% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 63% of total generation.

Hydro Storage Update

Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.

Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was a decrease in North Island storage.

South Island inflows were also lower than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have also decreased.
View the latest Hydro Risk Curves  »
Read more about Hydro Storage  »

Generation Mix Update

Generation from non hydro sources are expected to remain at current levels.
Read more about Generation Mix  »

Demand Update

New Zealand electricity usage is about average for this time of the year.
Read more about Demand »

Transmission Update

There was a net HVDC energy transfer to the North Island of 11 GWh last week. 
Read more about Transmission »

Wholesale Prices Update

The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $336 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
Read more about Wholesale Pricing »

Data Updates

We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves.  The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions 12 October 2018
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions 25 September 2018

Next Report

The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 30 October 2018.

Transpower Website

If you have any queries, please email system.operator@transpower.co.nz.
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