The Trump administration is developing a new strategy for the war in Syria that would focus more heavily on pushing Iran's military and its proxy forces out of the country, according to five people familiar with the plan.
The new strategy would not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing Iranian soldiers or Iran's proxies, however, since that would violate the current U.S. authorization for using force in Syria. The U.S. military does have the right of self-defence under the authorization, and could strike the Iranian military if it felt threatened. Read more.
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Indonesia says concerned over Australia shift in Israel policy, but trade deal not derailed
Nur Asyiqin Mohamad Salleh
Straits Times • October 17, 2018
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Indonesia on Tuesday (Oct 16) expressed concern over Australia’s announcement that it was open to moving its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, but stressed that a landmark trade deal between the two countries - due to be signed by year-end - has not been derailed.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation had earlier in the day reported that Indonesia is mulling putting the Indonesia Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership on hold, citing a senior government source.
But Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukito denied this, telling Reuters that there was “no such thing”. The deal was on track to be signed this year, he added.
The fate of the Indonesia-Australia pact came under scrutiny after Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told reporters on Tuesday that he was “open-minded” to proposals to formally recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi spoke to her Australian counterpart Marise Payne, and Mr Morrison had also spoken to President Joko Widodo on the possible embassy move, said foreign ministry spokesman Arrmanatha Nasir.
Indonesia had conveyed “our strong concern on the announcement, and question the merit of the announcement”, said Ms Retno.
“Indonesia would like to reiterate its position that a two-state solution must be upheld as a basic principle for peace to occur sustainably between Palestine and Israel,” she said in a joint press conference with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki, who is in Jakarta on an official visit. She added: "Indonesia asks Australia and other countries to continue supporting the Palestine-Israel peace process in accordance with the principles that have been agreed, and to not take steps that may threaten the peace process and world stability.”
The pair had over the weekend launched the Solidarity Week for Palestine event in Jakarta, to signal Indonesia's longstanding commitment to the Palestinian cause.
Mr al-Maliki during the press conference said Palestine greatly appreciated President Joko and Ms Retno communicating with Australian officials on Mr Morrison’s statement.
“This is of great importance to remind them that this does not go with international law, with international relations… and puts Australia in contradiction to the rest of the world when it comes to Jerusalem and the status of Jerusalem,” he said. “Indonesia even before we asked them to act, they did it on their own. And they were the first country to act immediately on this. This is something that we have to appreciate, we have to remember and we have to thank Indonesia for this commitment to peace, to justice, this commitment to international law… to the relationship within countries.”
Australia, he stressed, had violated international law and disrespected United Nations Security Council resolutions.
"Australia by doing so is risking its trade and business relationship with the rest of the world, in particular the Arab and Muslim world," said Mr al-Maliki. "And I hope that Australia will re-consider that position before it takes such action for election purposes.”
US President Donald Trump had in December declared his decision to do just that, breaking with diplomatic tradition and rankling Muslim-majority nations, including Indonesia and Malaysia.
Talks on the Indonesia-Australia agreement kicked off in 2010, but diplomatic spats over the years - including disagreement over the execution of Australian citizens, and tensions over Australia sending boats of asylum seekers back into Indonesian waters - have stalled negotiations.
The negotiations were finally concluded in August, with Mr Morrison - in Jakarta for his first trip overseas after taking over from his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull - declaring that the pact would be a “massive win-win” for the two countries.
Among other things, the agreement will make it easier for Australian universities and health providers to set up operations in Indonesia, and boost trade in key areas such as cattle.
Veteran Australian diplomat John McCarthy criticised Mr Morrison’s announcement, telling The Sydney Morning Herald that the move would be “very poorly regarded internationally”.
“It will damage our relations with Islamic states in the Middle East but, most important, it will have implications for our dealings and the way we are seen in Indonesia and Malaysia,” he said. “You have to bear in mind that the reaction in both those countries to Trump’s decision was extremely sharp. Now we are part of the region, and that makes it a really serious issue for us.”
The timing of Mr Morrison’s announcement, Mr McCarthy added, came at a particularly bad time with presidential and general elections poised to take place in Indonesia next year.
“Islamic issues are becoming particularly prominent,” said Mr McCarthy. “I’m not sure to what degree the PM and the people immediately around him are focused on this issue, but they should be aware of these sensitivities.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday at a Christian conference that he is keen to promote diplomatic relations with Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation.
His country and Indonesia have no formal diplomatic ties.
Earlier this year, Indonesia denied visas to dozens of Israeli nationals - a move that many suspect was motivated by the killing of more than 140 Palestinians by the Israeli security forces on the Gaza border. Israel responded by imposing a brief ban on Indonesian tourists.
“Indonesia is very, very important for us,” said Mr Netanyahu at the International Christian Media Summit in Jerusalem, adding: “Indonesia is over 200 million people. It has Muslims. It has tens of millions of Christians. We would like to see them here. We would like to have an excellent relationship with them… I will work on the visas, see what I can do.”
The timing of Mr Morrison’s announcement, Mr McCarthy added, came at a particularly bad time with presidential and general elections poised to take place in Indonesia next year.
“Islamic issues are becoming particularly prominent,” said Mr McCarthy. “I’m not sure to what degree the PM and the people immediately around him are focused on this issue, but they should be aware of these sensitivities.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday at a Christian conference that he is keen to promote diplomatic relations with Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation.
His country and Indonesia have no formal diplomatic ties.
Earlier this year, Indonesia denied visas to dozens of Israeli nationals - a move that many suspect was motivated by the killing of more than 140 Palestinians by the Israeli security forces on the Gaza border. Israel responded by imposing a brief ban on Indonesian tourists.
“Indonesia is very, very important for us,” said Mr Netanyahu at the International Christian Media Summit in Jerusalem, adding: “Indonesia is over 200 million people. It has Muslims. It has tens of millions of Christians. We would like to see them here. We would like to have an excellent relationship with them… I will work on the visas, see what I can do.”
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A seat at the table: Wave of Arab women running in local elections in Israel
Dina Kraft
Christian Science Monitor • October 16, 2018
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Examining the remains of a hotel built more than a century ago in this working-class, mixed Jewish and Arab city, Fidaa Shehadeh pauses to admire the engraved decorative detail on the building’s arched doorway.
Weeds grow out of the old building’s large blocks of beige-colored stone. Below, plastic bottles and bits of other trash are strewn on the sandy ground. Read more.
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Don’t Ditch Riyadh in a Fit of Righteousness
Walter Russell Mead
Wall Street Journal • October 15, 2018
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The murder (if that’s what it was) of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, was a horror in itself, and a greater horror still in what it threatens to unleash. The Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ayatollahs of Iran are huddled over the corpse, hoping to turn a political profit from the death of an innocent man.
Mr. Khashoggi was a thorn in the flesh of the hyperactive crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Bin Salman, a man who faces a concatenation of problems the likes of which the House of Saud has rarely seen. Iran, hostile, arrogant and ambitious, has ruthlessly carved a “Shia crescent” from Baghdad through Damascus to Beirut. A gusher of American oil and natural gas has diminished OPEC. Turkey, sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood and harboring dreams of restoring its old Ottoman glory, seeks to displace Saudi Arabia as the voice of the Sunni world. Russia has reasserted itself in the region. And inside Saudi Arabia, a growing population with high expectations demands more opportunity and better governance from a traditional monarchy largely unprepared for the 21st century.
It was out of this turmoil and fear that the MBS phenomenon emerged. At home and abroad, the Saudis attempted a series of frenzied initiatives, including a war in Yemen and the privatization of Aramco, to improve their position. Meanwhile, MBS stroked gullible American elites into the belief that he was a democrat.
It worked for a while; gullibility is America’s most plentiful natural resource. But after Mr. Khashoggi’s death, even the most naive observer can see that the crown prince is at best a modernizing autocrat, using dictatorial power to drag his country into the future: Peter the Great, not Thomas Jefferson. At worst, he could end like Phaethon, the Greek demigod who lost control of his horses while foolishly trying to drive the chariot of the sun.
The Saudi transformation is not going smoothly. Aramco’s privatization has been delayed and the ambitious Vision 2030 goals for economic renewal seem increasingly elusive. MBS’s foreign policy looks more chaotic than inspired, and the blunder in Istanbul was not the first false step. The arrest of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri last year and the failed diplomatic standoff with Qatar were not the strokes of a master. Nor is the kingdom’s ill-planned and poorly executed Syria strategy or its intervention in Yemen, which has created a humanitarian disaster without notably advancing Saudi interests.
The Khashoggi affair is more of the same. But more than other MBS-era blunders, this episode may be an existential threat to the international prestige he has been working assiduously to build—even as the Saudis appear to be cooking up an exculpatory cover story.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, flying to Riyadh at short notice to bring some order to the chaos, is well acquainted with the hard facts of the Middle East. He knows the crown prince’s Saudi Arabia is not an authoritarian caterpillar metamorphosing into a liberal butterfly. But neither are Turkey and Iran. And on crucial issues, U.S. and Saudi interests are aligned. The U.S. wants to ensure that no single power, inside or outside the Middle East, has control over the world’s oil spigot. That means Saudi Arabia must remain independent and secure.
There are two things the U.S. should not do. One is sweep Mr. Khashoggi’s murder under the rug. His disappearance has damaged Saudi Arabia’s standing, including in Congress. Mr. Pompeo needs to deliver a clear message that this behavior weakens and ultimately endangers the alliance. He should not be deterred by Saudi threats. Like the American Confederates who overestimated the power of King Cotton in the 1860s, the Saudis tend to overestimate King Oil’s power today.
But to do what the Iran-deal chorus and the Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood apologists want—to dissolve the U.S.-Saudi alliance in a frenzy of righteousness—would be an absurd overreaction that plays into the hands of America’s enemies. It could also stampede the Saudis into even more recklessness. France was not expelled from the European Community or NATO in 1985 when its agents sank the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior, killing an innocent man in the process.
Without lionizing, ostracizing or enabling MBS, Mr. Pompeo needs to get to the heart of the matter: Saudi insecurity. To restore balance and sobriety to its foreign policy, Saudi Arabia needs to calm down, and only the U.S. can provide the assurances to make that possible. Among other things, this entails coordinating with the Saudis (and the Israelis) on a policy aimed at containing Iran and stabilizing the region. It also involves encouraging the economic transformation the Saudis seek at home. Even as he responds with appropriate gravity to a serious provocation, Mr. Pompeo must give Saudi authorities the confidence that sober and sensible policies will bring continuing American support for the kingdom’s independence and reform.
Image: A Turkish police officer at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Oct. 15. (Source: Wall Street Journal)
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US Justice Department designates Hezbollah as transnational crime group
Jewish News Syndicate • October 15, 2018
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The Department of Justice designated Hezbollah as a transnational crime group on Monday, officially making the Lebanese terrorist group the highest priority of law enforcement. Read more.
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