AHAR 2017 P2: What is? What is missing?
HUD released its AHAR 2017 Part 2 report covering a wide range of analysis of HMIS and PIT homeless data. The AHAR report focuses primarily on changes in the last decade from 2007 to 2017. Selected analyses on 2016 to 2017 changes include:
- Estimate of 1,416,908 unduplicated homeless persons using shelter (ES/TH) services during FY17. The estimate represents a statistical insignificant decrease from the 2016 estimate of 1,421,196 persons. Estimates do not include persons residing in designated domestic violence shelter beds.
- Estimate of 118,380 unduplicated homeless veterans using shelter services during FY17 compared to 124,709 during PY17.
- Estimate of 376,086 living in Permanent Supportive Housing during PY17 including 99,397 veterans. The AHAR did NOT include a PSH turnover rate.
- Average occupancy rate among Emergency Shelters rose from 85.5% in FY16 to 88.6% in PY17
- Average occupancy rate among Transitional Facilities decreased from 84.9% in PY16 to 82.5% in PY17
Shelter usage is a function of shelter capacity which has fallen by about 40,000 beds (from 440,000 to 400,000) over the last 5 years due to the closure of many transitional facilities. Any analysis of shelter utilization should factor in existing bed capacity. Each ES bed has an average turnover rate of between 3.5 persons per year. The lack of a more detailed analysis of usage vs. capacity is one area of large deficiency in the AHAR report. One of the most important questions in homeless services is whether a decrease in shelter beds causes an increase in unsheltered homelessness? The AHAR tells us nothing with respect to this question.
What also continues to be missing from the AHAR and the HMIS systems of most CoCs are data on persons who are UNSHELTERED during the year. The unsheltered population is the true population of persons who should be defined as homeless. The failure to prioritize the collection and analysis of unsheltered data including an estimated count of persons annually experiencing unsheltered homelessness continues to make the report of lesser value than it could be. Too much time and money is spent on people in housing (transitional or emergency) and not enough on the unsheltered crowd - who are the primary concern of both business and the community.
In addition, the NHIP notes that many shelter analyses in the AHAR that should be broken down between emergency shelters and transitional shelters are omitted.
The NHIP encourages readers to send us your thoughts on what is good and what is missing from the 2017 AHAR reports to nhipdata@gmail.com or through the CONTACT option from the website.
Reader Request: Emergency Shelter usage rising?
One of our readers asked if the NHIP had data on emergency shelter usage from the annual PIT count. Our response was that since Emergency Shelter capacity has increased over the past 5+ years and transitional housing has precipitously decreased over the past five years, usage of emergency shelter for the PIT and annually has likely increased.
The graph below shows the number of persons found in ES on the PIT from 2005 (about 215,000) to 2017 (over 260,000) with a steady rise since 2008. It is expected that this total will rise in 2018 as reports are that more ES have come on-line. The rise in emergency shelter creation is problematic and threatens to erect more barriers to reduce the population federally-defined as homeless.
Needless to say, the AHAR does not break down its estimate of shelter utilization by emergency or transitional, since politically it is not wise to show emergency shelter rising if you don't have to.
Note from the NHIP Editor
The editor of the NHIP has reduced the number of email bulletins for many reasons including exhaustion, personal workload on paid contracts, and continued lack of interest by far too many in the homeless community who treat homeless services as a job not an advocacy passion. In addition, it is unfortunate that many HUD officials have chosen recently to "unsubscribe" to these informative emails and many subscribing in the HUD TA field do not engage with the NHIP effort. Homeless services has also been a field full of silos - that is the nature of non-profit led industries where "every non-profit is its own religion". And of course, it's about chasing the grant money.
The analysis of homeless data remains in its infancy and the NHIP purpose has been to bring it to a higher level. This has been an arduous task with few victories. We will keep plodding along, although perhaps at a less frequent pace, or until we get revitalized by an exogenous force.
Have a Nice Day -
The NHIP
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