|
Finding hope in unexpected places
|
|
|
Last week's IPCC report has been in every headline lately. Their special broadcast examined the consequences of a 1.5 degree Celsius warming (above pre-industrial temperatures), and what it would take to get there. The news was not surprising for analysts who have followed climate change for a while: the world is nowhere near on pace to hitting the 2° target, much less the 1.5° target. But decarbonization can proceed, indeed it can accelerate, even without emissions targets. This week: Jameson McBride investigates IPCC's take on nuclear, Alex Trembath reflects on what it would mean to "undo" global warming, and Ted Nordhaus reimagines what an advanced nuclear industry can look like. We're also excited to publish a joint post between Jameson and one of our 2018 Breakthrough Generation Fellows, Jessica Dunn, on what (de)regulation means for the energy market.
|
|
|
|
|
We see the IPCC's assessment of nuclear as half full, not half empty. In the past, the UN and the IPCC have been reluctant to recognize that nuclear could have a role in mitigating climate change at all. But the new report clearly states that “nuclear power increases its share [of world energy] in most 1.5°C pathways by 2050.”
Jameson McBride, "Nuclear for 1.5°C"
|
|
|
How we understand and feel about our world is largely dependent on how we think it could have turned out differently, and how plausible those alternatives are. It is with these observations in mind that I read about humanity’s failure to confront global warming.
Alex Trembath, "Undoing Global Warming"
|
|
|
Today, electricity deregulation is still a live issue — and its impacts are still poorly understood. Voters in Nevada are currently deciding on their electricity market future: deregulation is on the ballot in November.
Jessica Dunn & Jameson McBride, "Deregulation and Decarbonization"
|
|
|
In failure, Transatomic is itself proof of concept. For those of us who have argued for a different nuclear future, less centralized and state-dependent, companies like Transatomic will need to fail so that an advanced nuclear industry can thrive.
Ted Nordhaus, "RIP Transatomic Power"
|
|
|
|
Jameson McBride on a glass half full
|
|
|
Here at Breakthrough, we believe that human flourishing is compatible with a thriving natural world. We also care about resisting political echo chambers — something that every like-minded group of advocates struggles with. For example, when the recent IPCC 1.5°C report was released, some nuclear advocates concluded that the IPCC and the UN were biased against nuclear power, because the report included some discussion of nuclear’s risks and problems. But once we actually went and read the report carefully, we realized that it projects a huge role for nuclear in achieving ambitious climate targets. In the 1.5°C scenarios with the most economic growth, global nuclear supply doubles by 2030 and quintuples by 2050. There’s no doubt that nuclear still faces a lot of bias in the public sphere. But we can’t let our priors blind us from finding hope in unexpected places.
|
|
|
|
|
The Breakthrough Dialogues is taking a season break - we're fueling up for an exciting season two. In the meantime, catch up on all 10 episodes of the first season right here. Pull up a chair to our casual conversations with Charles Mann, Varun Sivaram, Jenny Splitter, and many others.
|
|
|
|
