Brazilians will go to the polls tomorrow, October 28, to cast their ballots in the second round of the presidential election. The election will see frontrunner and far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), face off against leftist Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party (PT). Bolsonaro earlier failed to secure the absolute majority necessary to secure the presidency outright, only receiving 46 percent in the first round on October 7. Second-place finisher Haddad received just over 29 percent. The two candidates represent vastly different visions for Brazil in an election that will have profound effects on the region. Read on for in-depth analysis from Compass World.

A Bolsonaro-Haddad runoff was widely predicted as the inevitable outcome of the first-round vote, according to analysts. However, Bolsonaro performed better than was expected. In the Chamber of Deputies, Bolsonaro’s PSL made significant gains, securing 52 seats compared to PT’s 56. In 2014, PSL had only one candidate elected as a federal deputy. PSL secured four senatorial seats compared to PT’s six. The results of these elections represented a defeat for traditional centrist parties in addition to the leftist PT. Although voting is mandatory in Brazil, abstention rates reached 20.32 percent, the highest rate since the 1998 election.

The candidates have not appeared in a televised debate together. Bolsonaro has cited medical recovery from injuries sustained when he was stabbed at an election rally in September. Instead, the candidates have engaged on Twitter. Bolsonaro has criticized Haddad as a puppet of imprisoned former-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while Haddad has ridiculed Bolsonaro’s refusal to engage in televised debates.

Reports of violence have increased during this electoral period. One of the most publicized cases is the murder of a capoeira teacher in early October by a Bolsonaro supporter after he defended his support for Haddad. Several other reports have been made in recent weeks from minority groups claiming to have been threatened over differences in political opinion. Both Bolsonaro and Haddad have condemned acts of political violence.

The first round results were indicative of a growing sense of disillusionment with the political establishment. Growing disenchantment spurred by Brazil’s economic recession coupled with high crime rates and corruption scandals amongst the political elite have spurred the rise of populist candidates and a desire for new solutions. To many, Bolsonaro, a long-term congressman representing Rio de Janeiro, is that change. If Bolsonaro symbolizes change, Haddad, former-mayor of São Paulo, symbolizes continuity.

Low degrees of trust in government institutions combined with polarized opinions about the leading candidates have fueled divisions within Brazil.

As the representative of the Workers’ Party, Haddad carries with him a dual legacy of its successes and more recent scandals. Lula was barred from running for election and jailed for violating Brazil’s Clean State Law. In 2014, authorities launched operation Car Wash, a corruption investigation that resulted in the conviction of Lula and the impeachment of former-President Dilma Rousseff. On October 17, the federal police requested that the Prosecutor’s Office indict incumbent President Michel Temer on charges of corruption, money laundering, and criminal activity, as well as ten other individuals.

Critics of Jair Bolsonaro have been vocal, condemning the candidate for his previous behavior that has resulted in federal hate speech charges for homophobic, misogynistic, and racist comments. However, opponents have expressed fear over the potential rise of the military under a Bolsonaro administration due to apologist comments defending the Brazilian military dictatorship between 1964 and 1985.

Polarized opinions fueled demonstrations in the days leading up to the vote. Although anti-Bolsonaro protests were widespread on October 21, pro-Bolsonaro rallies on October 22 were larger in scale and more widespread throughout the country. Appearing via teleconference, Bolsonaro delivered a speech about re-building Brazil and purging the country of left-wing “outlaws.”

To overcome the 18-point gap going into the election, Haddad is trying to appeal to all sides, specifically by speaking to the importance of unity and moving forward together. To counteract Bolsonaro’s support from the Evangelical community, Haddad has made efforts to gain support from the Catholic Church.

In recent weeks, Bolsonaro softened his tone ahead of the second-round vote to maximize his appeal. In doing so, Bolsonaro has sought to increase his appeal with women, people of color, and the LGBTQ community. For example, Bolsonaro was recently endorsed by Agustin Fernandez, a famous, gay makeup artist.

In recent weeks, Haddad saw his rejection rate from to 41 percent from 47 percent while Bolsonaro’s rose from 35 percent to 40 percent. The most recent study conducted by IBOPE Intelligence projected 57 percent for Bolsonaro and 43 percent for Haddad, compared to a 59-41 percent split in the previous poll. The recent polling matches the data from other polls that show Bolsonaro securing between 57 percent (CNT/MDA) and 60 percent (BTG/FSB) of the vote.