Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of major equipment failures the situation could deteriorate). The Risk Meter is currently set to normal.
We are continuing to closely analyse and monitor the security of supply situation due to the ongoing outage at Pohokura, and the lower than average hydro storage for this time of year. We are currently updating the Hydro Risk Curves to account for the current TCC outage (which will increase curves for November 2018), and later this month we will update them again to include a new demand forecast. In the unlikely event that fuel supplies do not return to normal levels at the end of November, we will also be providing analysis of the thermal fuel situation and a scenario analysis.
In January and April 2018, Transpower consulted on a proposed change to the process for evaluating restrictions on thermal fuel availability as it relates to the Hydro Risk Curve input assumptions. The document published today summarises submissions to that consultation, provides Transpower’s response to those submissions and confirms our decision regarding implementation of the change. See here.
|
|
