Monday, December 3, 2018 

G-20 Agrees on Trade and Migration

Leaders of the world’s top economies agreed Saturday to repair the global trading system as they closed a G-20 summit that saw the Trump administration at odds with many allies over the Paris accord on climate change and issues like migration. The joint statement signed by all 20 member nations said 19 of them reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris climate accord, with the United States, which withdrew from the pact under Trump, the lone holdout.
 
The lone official communique committed for the first time to reform the World Trade Organization. “A number of words that we used to have always in G-7 and G-20 summit communiques became kind of taboos,” a European official said on Saturday in the midst of the negotiations. “We have American taboos and Chinese taboos.” First among those taboos is “protectionism.” The U.S. administration has become sensitive to criticisms that it is protectionist after President Trump imposed tariffs not only on $250 billion of Chinese goods but also on steel and aluminum imports that hit several of his G-20 partners. As a result, for the first time since G-20 leaders held their inaugural meeting in Washington in 2008, their communique did not contain a pledge to fight protectionism. China, meanwhile, opposed the inclusion of the usual calls for “fair trade practices,” delegates said. Beijing rejected criticisms from the United States, Europe, and Japan for dumping, industrial subsidies, abuse of intellectual property rights and technology transfers, among other practices.
 
On migration, European officials said the U.S. negotiator said too much language about the issue would have been a “deal-breaker” for Trump. Delegates worked until 6:30 a.m. on Saturday, the final day of the summit, watering down language on migration and refugees in the face of resistance from the United States and others. Negotiators instead came up with “minimalist” language that acknowledges growing migrant flows and the importance of shared efforts to support refugees and solve the problems that drive them to flee. Associated Press, Reuters, New York Times  
 
Also at the summit, the U.S. and China called a truce in their trade war after President Trump agreed to hold off on new tariffs and President Xi Jinping pledged to increase Chinese purchases of American products. The two also set the stage for negotiations to resolve deeply rooted differences over trade. Trump will postpone a plan to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent, from 10 percent, on January 1st. The Chinese agreed to an unspecified increase in their purchases of American industrial, energy, and agricultural products, which Beijing hit with retaliatory tariffs after Trump targeted products from steel to consumer electronics. New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Hill
Related:
Washington Post: Saudi Crown Prince is a Protected Pariah at G-20 Summit
 

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George H.W. Bush’s oval office note to me revealed the heart of who he was: “Given what politics looks like in America and around the world today, it’s easy to sigh and say George H.W. Bush belonged to an era that is gone and never coming back — where our opponents are not our enemies, where we are open to different ideas and changing our minds, where facts matter and where our devotion to our children’s future leads to honest compromise and shared progress,” writes former President Bill Clinton in the Washington Post. “ I know what he would say: ‘Nonsense. It’s your duty to get that America back.’”
 
Syria’s execution of U.S. citizen shows need for accountability: “The United States and the international community cannot bring Layla Shweikani and Faten Rajab Fawaz back to their loved ones,” writes Mai El-Sadany for The Hill. “But as creative applications of universal jurisdiction to hold Syrian officials to account for torture surface across Europe, as the International, Impartial, and Independent Mechanism builds its case files, and as Syrian civil society continues to document the stories of those disappeared and detained, we must advocate to support these efforts.”
 
Bad idea: expecting the private sector to drive innovation in national security: “It’s bipartisan Washington gospel that America’s private sector (“industry”) will deliver the innovation the country needs from next-generation national security technologies to future manufacturing competitiveness,” writes Samuel Brannen for Defense 360. “Such expectation, however, is increasingly a bad idea without a far more strategic, centralized, and White House-driven approach to the challenges ahead.”

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JAMES COMEY AGREES TO TESTIFY BEFORE HOUSE
Former FBI Director James Comey wrote on Twitter Sunday that he will testify privately before a House panel Monday on the condition that he will be able to speak freely afterward and that a public transcript will be released within 24 hours. Comey had filed suit in federal court Thursday to block the subpoena requiring him to testify behind closed doors to the House Judiciary and Oversight Committees, instead preferring to testify publicly.  ABC News
 
Later on Sunday, Republican lawmakers agreed to release a transcript of his testimony within 24 hours and to allow Comey to speak about the meeting publicly. “This is the closest I can get to public testimony,” Comey said. New York Times, The Hill
 
Ex-Justice Dept. employee admits to aiding lobbying effort meant to shut down Malaysian corruption probe: George Higginbotham, a former Justice Department employee, admitted Friday to aiding a plot to secretly fund a lobbying effort that prosecutors said was aimed at ending U.S. law enforcement’s investigation of a Malaysian government corruption scandal. Higginbotham pleaded guilty to illicitly facilitating the transfer of tens of millions of dollars into the United States to finance the lobbying effort, which unsuccessfully tried to shut down the ongoing probe into embezzlement and bribery surrounding a Malaysian state development fund. Washington Post
 
Top Navy admiral found dead in Bahrain: Vice Admiral Scott Stearney, who oversaw U.S. naval forces in the Middle East, was found dead Saturday in his residence in Bahrain. Defense officials say they are calling it an "apparent suicide." Stearney was the commander of the U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based 5th Fleet. Rear Admiral Paul Schlise, the deputy commander of the 5th Fleet, has assumed command, the Navy said in a statement. The Naval Criminal Investigative Service and the Bahraini Ministry of Interior are investigating Stearney's death, the Navy said, but foul play is not suspected. CBS News
 
Roger Stone denies contact with Julian Assange: Roger Stone, a longtime adviser to President Trump, said Sunday that he has never been in touch with Julian Assange, the founder of the anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks, which released hacked Democratic emails during the 2016 campaign. “That is absolutely correct,” Stone said on ABC News’s “This Week” when asked whether it was true that he had never spoken with Assange. Stone also said that he has had no contact with special counsel Robert Mueller. In Sunday’s interview, Stone said that he has had no discussions with Trump regarding a pardon for either himself or for former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort. He added that there is “no circumstance” under which he would testify against Trump, “because I’d have to bear false witness against him.” Washington Post
 
Taos 5 may face federal terrorism charges: The five defendants arrested after authorities found a dead child at a compound north of Taos, NM, in August are now under investigation for a specific terrorism-related charge that has never before been filed in New Mexico, according to a court filing by federal prosecutors. While the possible charge, providing material support to terrorists, is unprecedented for New Mexico, it has been used hundreds of times across the country. Court testimony has referred to evidence involving defendant Siraj Ibn Wahhaj including international travel to countries including Saudi Arabia and Morocco; a manual describing the “stages of a terrorist attack” that was found at the compound; and the fact that the FBI prepared a report after Wahhaj and his brother attended a Black Lives Matter march in Atlanta prior to Wahhaj and the other defendants arriving in New Mexico. Albuquerque Journal
 
Federal agent faces trial in Houston after romantic involvement with terror suspect: Leatrice Malika De Bruhl-Daniels, a career federal law enforcement officer from the suburbs of Washington, D.C., is facing federal charges in Houston for hampering the FBI’s counterterrorism investigation into Nadal Diya. Diya has been charged with using fake travel documents. De Bruhl-Daniels met Diya while she was stationed in the United Arab Emirates as a special agent with the NCIS. During their affair, she provided him warnings that he was being investigated as a possible terrorist and could be arrested, according to court documents.
 
Both face a mid-December trial date that is likely to be postponed. De Bruhl-Daniels, who is free on bond and awaiting trial, appeared briefly before a Houston magistrate in late October where she pleaded not guilty to attempting to obstruct, influence, or impede justice. She and her federal public defender have declined to comment about the case. Prosecutors are seeking extradition of Diya, who is free on bond in Toronto, on charges that he used fraudulent Guatemalan and Argentine passports in Texas and Louisiana. The Houston Chronicle
 


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Putin refuses to release Ukrainian sailors and ships: Speaking to reporters after the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said it is “too early” to return Ukrainian sailors and naval vessels seized by Russia in the Sea of Azov, accusing the Ukrainian government of provoking an incident as a distraction from domestic problems. Putin said it was necessary to detain the captives while a legal case was put together to demonstrate that the three Ukrainian naval vessels violated Russia’s territorial waters. He said the ships’ logs would show that their attempt to cross the Kerch strait from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov – enclosed by Russia, the Crimean peninsula and mainland Ukraine – was a deliberate provocation. Putin appeared to confirm some of Kiev’s claims, conceding that the Ukrainian and Russian vessels had been in contact with each other before the incident, and that the Ukrainians had refused to use a Russian pilot to help them navigate the narrow strait. The Ukrainians reject Russian insistence that they use a Russian pilot, saying it is not required by a 2003 agreement on sharing the waterway, and is a recently imposed means of controlling Ukrainian access. The Guardian
 
U.S.-led coalition announces death of ISIS leader in Syria: The U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria announced that a strike on Sunday killed Abu al Umarayn, a high-ranking leader who was involved in the beheading of U.S. Army Ranger Peter Kassig, whose death was captured in a video certified as authentic by U.S. officials. According to the announcement, Al Umarayan was killed in the drone strike alongside "several other ISIS members." The Hill
 
Trump reportedly asks Pakistan PM for help with Afghan peace talks: President Trump has sought Pakistan’s help with Afghan peace talks in a letter to Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan’s information minister, Fawad Chaudhry, said today. U.S. officials have long been pushing Pakistan to lean on the Taliban leadership, which Washington says is based in the country, to bring them to the negotiating table. Last week, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said he had formed a 12-strong team to negotiate peace with the Taliban, but warned that implementation of any deal would take at least five years. Reuters
 
U.S. airstrike kills senior Taliban commander in Afghanistan: The Taliban’s most senior commander in southern Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul Manan, was killed in an American airstrike, the insurgent group and Afghan and American officials said on Sunday. Manan had orchestrated the insurgents’ campaign to take over much of Helmand Province. He was also believed to be a key figure in developing the Taliban’s special forces, the Red Unit, which have carried out deadly attacks across the country. Manan’s death comes as the Taliban are pushing for further gains in the south following the assassination of the general leading the government’s defenses there. New York Times
 
ISIS official known for caging foes is captured by Iraq:  Iraqi authorities released a video on Friday with the confession of Jamal al-Mashadani, a recently captured Islamic State operative who was involved in a notorious incident in which captured Kurdish soldiers were put in cages and paraded around a northern Iraqi city by hooded Islamic State fighters. Mashadani, who was known by the nom de guerre Abu Hamza al-Kurdi, was an officer in President Saddam Hussein’s security apparatus before joining Al Qaeda in Iraq after Hussein’s fall. Mashadani later shifted his loyalty to the Islamic State. New York Times
 
U.S. military says attack kills nine Al-Shabaab fighters: The United States military’s Africa Command said it killed nine fighters in an air attack targeting Al-Shabaab fighters in Lebede, Somalia, as part of its operations to support the government's efforts to weaken the armed group. U.S. AFRICOM said the attack was carried out on Friday. "We currently assess this airstrike killed nine militants with no civilians involved," U.S. AFRICOM said in a statement late on Saturday. Al Jazeera  
 


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SAUDI CROWN PRINCE EXCHANGED MESSAGES WITH AIDE ALLEGED TO HAVE OVERSEEN KHASHOGGI KILLING
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a senior aide who allegedly oversaw the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi reportedly exchanged multiple messages in the hours before and after Khashoggi was killed. The communications between the two men are another piece of evidence tying the crown prince to the killing of Khashoggi. The CIA included the existence of the messages in its classified assessment that Prince Mohammed is likely to have ordered Khashoggi’s death, a view that agency officials have shared with members of Congress and the White House. Washington Post, New York Times
Related:
Associated Press: Saudi Friend of Khashoggi Sues Israeli Surveillance Company
 
Iran defends missile program after Pompeo alleges Tehran carried out test: Iran defended its ballistic missile program Sunday after U.S. allegations that the regime was violating a UN resolution by continuing to develop weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted Saturday that Iran had just test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear weapons. He condemned the act and called on Iran to cease what he called Tehran’s growing missile testing and proliferation activity. Iran’s Foreign Ministry countered Pompeo on Sunday, saying that the program was solely defensive, according to a statement carried by the official Islamic Republic News Agency. The statement didn’t confirm or deny whether a test-fire had taken place. Wall Street Journal
Related:
Reuters: Iran Navy Launches Stealth Warship in the Gulf
 
France weighs state of emergency: France is reportedly considering imposing a state of emergency to prevent a recurrence of what is being described as some of the worst civil unrest in more than a decade by protesters. A third week of anti-government protests intensified in violence on Saturday, as demonstrators burned cars, smashed windows, and confronted riot police firing tear gas in the heart of Paris in the most serious crisis of President Emmanuel Macron’s administration. The ‘‘Yellow Vest’’ protests, spurred by an increase in the gasoline tax, and named for the roadside safety vests worn by the demonstrators, have emerged as a spontaneous outcry over declining living standards. New York Times
Related:
Wall Street Journal: Paris Rioting Puts Macron’s Economic Overhaul to the Test
 
Israeli police recommend charging Netanyahu in third corruption case: Israeli police on Sunday recommended indicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of bribery and corruption in a third case — this time on suspicion that the leader eased business regulations for the country’s largest telecommunications company in exchange for favorable coverage for him and his wife on a popular news website owned by the firm. Responding to the most recent charges, Netanyahu questioned the timing and veracity of Sunday’s announcement, accusing police of leaking parts of the investigation even before any conclusions were reached. It is now up to Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit to formally prosecute those involved. Washington Post
 




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For cutting-edge analysis of the geopolitical events shaping global affairs, read today’s TSC IntelBrief.
Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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