Storage in the South Island hydro lakes has further increased over the last week. We are closely monitoring the situation relating to the Pohokura gas outage. Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of major equipment failures the situation could deteriorate) and the Risk Meter is currently set to normal.
As mentioned in previous newsletters we will publish an updated HRC (Hydro Risk Curve) this week. This update will include a number of new pieces of information, these were detailed in the newsletter dated 20 November. One of the updates discussed in that newsletter was a new demand forecast. This may take longer than expected to validate and process, and therefore it may be deferred until the new year.
Current Situation
Aggregate New Zealand storage increased over the last week and is at 59% of total storage, this is below the historical average (98% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 48% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 72% of total generation.
Hydro Storage Update
Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was an decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were also lower than the historical average over the last week however storage levels have increased.
The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $145 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data
Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions
15 November 2018
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions
16 November 2018
Next Report
The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 11 December 2018.