From the a devastating hurricane season and the 4th National Climate Assessment to increasing discussions of relocation to address sea-level rise and new publications to a January workshop from the Coastal Planning Program and more news, read on....
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2018 Hurricane Season Above Average and Very Destructive
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The 2018 hurricane season for the Atlantic officially began June 1, but that did not stop Tropical Storm Alberto from forming by May 25, 2018. In total, the Atlantic saw 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes, 2 of which became major hurricanes.
Hurricane Florence developed into the first major hurricane of the season on September 5. Florence became a Category 4 hurricane, weakened to become a tropical storm, then strengthened back into a Category 4 hurricane. Florence weakened into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in North Carolina. Despite having the lower winds associated with a Category 1 hurricane, Florence caused devastating damage in North and South Carolina as well as West Virginia. Florence stalled near the coast, resulting in drenching rains for days. Some places experienced more than 30 inches of rain, resulting in massive flooding, roads washing away, and numerous fatalities.
Michael became the second major hurricane of 2018. In Florida the memory of Michael remains raw as the hurricane devastated parts of the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane
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Michael barreled ashore in Florida as the hurricane with the third-most intense barometric pressure to make landfall in the United States.
Michael also surprised due to its rapid development; it morphed from a tropical depression on October 7, and the next day it was already a hurricane. Two days later is was Category 4 major hurricane with wind speeds (155 m.p.h) just 2 miles per hour below the threshold of a Category 5 storm.
Michael produced a 14-foot storm surge in Mexico Beach, Florida, where it made landfall. In Mexico Beach, the storm moved buildings from their foundations and leveled many structures, leaving a desolate landscape behind. But damage was not limited to Mexico Beach; strong winds reached inland to Marianna, causing extensive damage to buildings, and the western part of the Michael's eyewall caused serious damage in Panama City.
Michael's death toll in the United States stands at 45, 35 in Florida. Our hearts go out to all those affected by this grim reminder of the power of hurricanes and water.
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Image from Gerald Herbert/AP
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A 3-story building in the Florida Keys that collapsed during Hurricane Irma after being undermined by over wash from storm surge. Photo: Florida Sea Grant
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Storms and Sea-Level Rise Changing Demographics
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The article "Latest Climate Threat for Coastal Cities: More Rich People" details how disasters that destroy low-income housing--as well as those seeking safer places to build--are leading to "climate gentrification," resulting in demographic shifts in coastal areas. The article begins with how Hurricane Irma destroyed many mobile homes in the Florida Keys, leaving low-income residents with few options. Many cannot afford to build a house meeting stricter building requirements nor can they afford rents for structures that remained, rents that often reach $2,000 per month.
Even as those with fewer resources have to leave such areas, Stafford Township in New Jersey saw large increases in the property tax base after Hurricane Sandy destroyed 3,000 homes. The Township Mayor said that he is "seeing
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$750,000 home going up where there was a $200,000 or $300,000 home in the past." Thus, like in the Florida Keys, those with the least money are forced out.
But, the article observes, storms as urban renewal and gentrification is not always the case: communities that are already poor and not very attractive for the wealthy may become even poorer after a severe storm.
And another recent Miami Herald news article, Climate gentrification: Is sea rise turning Miami high ground into a hot commodity?, also looks at whether some of the higher ground in Miami is subject to climate gentrification. These higher areas in Miami have historically been occupied by African-Americans who were pushed into these areas by "red-lining" them from other areas in the region. Now, many fear, they are yet again being pushed out.
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The Challenges of Destroyed Properties Along the Coast and Ownership of Land Going Underwater
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Two related problems that will only grow in importance have begun to creep into the news: The problem of destroyed buildings along coasts and the ownership of land going underwater due to rising seas.
Nags Head, North Carolina has had a long history of disputes about properties located on the wet-sand beach. Legal wrangling there goes back several years as erosion overtook homes. At one point Nags Head sought to remove homes from the beach under the town's nuisance ordinance. However, courts ruled that in North Carolina, only the State of North Carolina, acting through the attorney general, had the authority to remove homes from public trust lands. By late 2014, property owners of several homes initially condemned by the Town of Nags Head declared victory as the Town either settled suits or courts indicated that the homes could remain.
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Homes along the Beach in Nags Head, North Carolina. The town initially denied permits for repair and condemned the homes before legal challenges--and a beach nourishment project--led to the owners being able to repair the homes.
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The results for the government were not much more favorable in the Texas case of Severance v. Patterson a few years back. In that case, the State of Texas sought to remove a house that interfered with public use of the beach based on the long-accepted legal doctrine in Texas of a public right to use the beach. However, the Texas Supreme Court broke with decades of legal precedent and newly introduced into Texas law a distinction between sudden events that move the beach's vegetation--a process known as avulsion--and slower, "imperceptible" erosion. The court ruled that even if property boundaries in Texas moved regardless of whether erosion or avulsion was the cause, public rights to use the beach only move with erosion, not avulsion. In addition to the major impact to Texas state law, the owner of the rental homes in the lawsuit accepted FEMA buyouts at pre-storm values of $336,000 and $813,000 for two rental properties at issue.
As the incidence of uninhabitable properties along coasts increases with rising sea levels, states and local governments need to begin to consider the policies, laws, and authorities that govern such situations. This should encompass questions such as whether or not permits for repairs should issue for homes on dry- or wet-sand beaches; whether public utilities should be reconnected; whether on-site sewage treatment, if present, remains viable in light of pollution and public health concerns; and who may have authority to order demolition, if warranted. Finally, who will foot the bill for demolition if such is needed?
In a strange twist, property owners in one private coastal community are suing to force the state to remove damaged properties from the beach. A story in the Post and Courier highlights how homes damaged by Irma remain on the wet sand beach and have become hazards, dropping debris and littering the beach. The State of South Carolina so far has denied that they have the authority to tear down the houses. The Harbor Island Owners' Association is challenging that assertion in court.
These cases all demonstrate a dynamic destined to become more frequent: Damaged homes on the beach that pollute, decrease neighboring property values, and pose a safety hazard for those that want to use the beach.
In addition to the problem of damaged structures along the beach, legal wrangling may occur over who owns land that goes under water due to erosion and rising seas. Property law is state law, so rules may vary from state to state. Nonetheless, to oversimplify, the general rule is that when coastal property is under the mean high water line, it becomes state-owned sovereign submerged lands. However, some ask if sea-level rise might alter this long-held rule.
An intriguing article in Bloomberg Businessweek begins by relating how private property owners in Louisiana seek to prevent boaters from boating in the water above land that previously did not allow boat traffic. From there the article proceeds to discuss cases in other states, including the case of Nags Head, mentioned above. The article does a good job of distilling--and necessarily oversimplifying on occasion--a very complex and sometimes arcane area of law.
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Fourth Nat'l Climate Assessment Contains Starkest Warnings to Date of the Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise
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By: Libby Carnahan & Thomas Ruppert, Florida Sea Grant
The nation’s economy, public health, infrastructure, and natural resources face immediate and continued threats from climate change impacts, warns the 4th National Climate Assessment released November 23, 2018.
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The report’s chapters include treatment of several sectors, such as water, energy, land use, forestry, coastal effects, marine resources, and more. Additionally, regional chapters examine how different geographic areas of the U.S. stand to be impacted. You can download the various chapters at this link or interact with the report online here.
Four key message from the executive summary for the Southeast United States include:
- Many southeastern cities are increasingly at risk due to heat, flooding, and vector-borne disease brought about by a changing climate.
- The combined effects of changing extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are already increasing flood frequencies, which impacts property values, infrastructure viability, and tourism, particularly in coastal cities.
- Changing winter temperature extremes, wildfire patterns, sea levels, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and warming ocean temperatures are expected to redistribute species and greatly modify ecosystems.
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- Rural communities are integral to the Southeast's cultural heritage and to the strong agricultural and forest products industries across the region. Climate changes will negatively impact the region’s labor-intensive agricultural industry and compound existing social stresses in rural areas.
Speaking with David Greene on National Public Radio’s Morning Edition, Dr. Andrea Dutton, UF Associate Professor of Geology, said that “Regional economies and industries that depend on natural resources or a favorable climate—such as agriculture, tourism or fisheries—are the most vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, and the cost could reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually just in some sectors alone.”
Despite such news, Dutton remains optimistic. “People see this as a black-and-white issue. Either we completely solve the problem, or it's doomsday. And that's not true at all. Basically, the message is that the sooner we fix it, the better; the faster we reduce emissions, the less we risk and the cheaper adaptation will be.”
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Flooding Events Worsening--But We Seem Resistant to Changing Our Ways. . . . Even When Some Acknowledge Need to Relocate Out of Harm's Way
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NOAA's latest report on high-tide flooding, shown in the image above, notes that the past year saw the highest average number of high tide flooding days ever at NOAA's 98 tide gauges. An active storm season in the northeast and hurricane season in the southeast combined with sea-level rise to break tidal flooding records in the northeast and Gulf of Mexico. The report predicts that high tide flooding during the 2018 meteorological year (May 2018 - April 2019) could be as much as 60 percent higher compared to typical flooding about 20 years ago and 100 percent higher than 30 years ago; the possible increase stems from possible El Niño conditions and the increasing influence of sea-level rise.
Even as we see more flooding in coastal areas due to sea-level rise and inland areas due to increased intensity of rain events, we continue to build in floodplains. For a story on this in New Jersey, see here, and for a story on this in Houston after the disastrous flooding from Hurricane Harvey, see here.
The article on floodplain development in Houston notes that the approved development exceeds Houston's new, stricter requirements to elevate above the flood expected from a so-called 500-year storm, which is a storm with a 0.2% chance of occurring in any given year. Though this represents an improvement over the minimum building elevation above the level of the "100-year storm event" (i.e.-- a 1% annual chance storm), The article also points out that since 2015, Houston has had three floods that met or exceeded 0.2 percent annual chance event (i.e.--a "500-year flood). Even if those in the new development were to be safe from flooding, the article notes concerns by others about whether the development will increase flood risks downstream.
And, of course, if being above the level of a projected 0.2 percent chance flood sometimes fails to protect people and property, the much lower standard of the 1% chance flood (the so-called "100-year flood") certainly provides much less protection. However, the 1% chance floodis the standard we use to delineate the "Special Flood Hazard Area" that requires flood insurance if you want a federally backed mortgage. According to the article "Examining Flood Insurance Claims in the United States: Six Key Findings," flood losses inside and outside the Special Flood Hazard Area are not statistically different. Another study indicates that FEMA's Special Flood Hazard Areas may dramatically underestimate flood risk.
So why do local governments continue to permit developments that may themselves flood or may contribute to flooding existing development? Part of the reason is that when local governments say "no," they may be sued. As outlined in this article, this fall the City of Virginia Beach voted to deny a rezoning to allow development of flood-prone land with an access road that also floods.
Lawsuits to allow development in floodplains provides a good segue to
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how disasters are shaped by where we choose to build. While Hurricane Michael was just the most recent and stark reminder of the importance of how we build, we tend to spend very little time discussing where we build and its impact.
A recent New York Times article began with the question, "Should communities hit over and over again by natural disasters--like hurricanes, fires, earthquakes and tornadoes--keep rebuilding? Or should they retreat from areas that are especially disaster prone?" While the article did not answer this question, increasing flooding and erosion cause some coastal communities to discuss relocating inland . "America’s Last-Ditch Climate Strategy of Retreat Isn’t Going So Well" dissects the long, hard slog of a community attempting to use buyouts to get people out of harm's way while keeping them in the community.
In New Zealand, communities are contemplating the roles that finances and economics play in community options for addressing sea-level rise. "Beach Road: The Rising Sea and Reshaping of New Zealand" traces how, for example, the ability to purchase insurance in coastal New Zealand may be in jeopardy far sooner than most anticipate, setting off cascading economic effects such as dropping property values just as local governments need that value more than ever for the tax revenue it generates for expensive infrastructure to address flooding caused or exacerbated by sea-level rise and climate change.
The article also addresses an overlooked aspect of sea-level rise: "Sea-level rise is not just a scientific problem, or even a political one: It's philosophical." What does this mean? It means that more than being just a technical or engineering issue, truly confronting the scale of sea-level rise means putting engineering, technical, social, economic, and other concerns in the context of people and our values. It means that acknowledging that data itself does not make decisions; people use their values--either explicit or assumed--to make decisions based on data. For example, what do our adaptation decisions indicate about our ideas of social justice and equity? This addresses an issue summed up by Dr. Lisa Ellis as "The rich get seawalls and the poor get moved."
Getting at just this normative issue when applying cost-benefit in the context of climate change is the focus of the recent article "Climate change and the re-evaluation of cost-benefit analysis" in the Journal Climatic Change. The article reevaluates the use and basis of "cost-benefit analysis" in light of climate change. The article notes that the assumptions of cost-benefit analysis do not make it well suited to use for climate change. The author also says that increasing recognition of such weaknesses in the current model of cost-benefit analysis in the context of climate change may be leading to the reemergence of "normative analysis," or an open recognition of the value judgements implicit in how cost-benefit analyses are conducted and the impacts on distributive justice.
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Picture of a septic tank left on a Florida beach after coastal erosion. Should increasing tidal flooding of areas with septic systems lead to Florida research to quantify the pollution and health impacts of such events?
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"Tidal flooding could pose serious problems for Chesapeake Bay restoration," cites a researcher whose work indicated that one tidal flooding event contributed up to one year's worth of rain-induced nitrogen runoff to Chesapeake Bay. Such runoff is not calculated into the pollution entering Chesapeake Bay. Increasing tidal flooding in many Florida communities might mean it is time to begin assessing the pollution contribution of such events on Florida waters, especially in areas with centralized sewer systems with leaky pipes and lots of residential septic systems.
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New Publications Related to the Coastal Planning Program
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Florida Sea Grant's Coastal Planning Program contributed to two publications addressing coastal planning issues in The Environmental Law Reporter's News & Analysis.
The first article, Castles–and Roads–In the Sand: Do All Roads Lead to a “Taking”?, addresses the legal wrangling behind the case of the "road" in the picture above. critically examines a seminal Florida case that addressed local government liability for coastal erosion damage to a road and dramatically altered Florida law in two key respects. First, the case altered and expanded the concept of “maintenance” of road infrastructure by a local government as the baseline duty that must be met to avoid potential legal liability. This occurred through flawed interpretation of prior case law. Second, the case introduced into Florida law the controversial idea that “inaction” may support a Fifth Amendment takings claim. The article traces how other courts have unwittingly or carelessly introduced “inaction” into their takings jurisprudence and evaluates whether and when inaction should be sufficient basis for a takings claim. The article draws out the serious policy implications of the case in light of sea-level rise, and makes recommendations to address the fallout from the case.
The second article, "Managing Property Buyouts at the Local Level: Seeking Benefits and Limiting Harms," comes at the topic of property buyouts from the
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Upcoming Events:
--Legal Workshop on Sea-Level Rise and Flooding
--"Keeping History Above Water"
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Florida Sea Grant, in conjunction with Monroe County and Erin L. Deady, P.A., will host “Sea-Level Rise and Flooding: Planning and Law for Local Governments” in Marathon, Florida on January 9, 2019. Workshop faculty includes local government staff, academics, practitioners, and consultants. The workshop will provide a brief overview of sea-level rise and flooding projections and the 4th National Climate Assessment; outline key infrastructure, financial, and legal challenges in flooding and sea-level rise adaptation; provide examples of pro-active local government assessment of vulnerabilities through data collection and analysis as well as policy responses; examine the Southeast Climate Compact’s Regional Climate Action Plan; and address the National Flood Insurance Program. See the full agenda here.
Registration is FREE but required to receive the free lunch that will be provided to attendees. Professional credits for floodplain managers, AICP-certified planners, and attorneys have been applied for and are pending. Receipt of professional credits also requires registration. REGISTRATION AVAILABLE HERE through January 4th, 2019.
Dr. Leslee Keys of Flagler College in St. Augustine is a driving force organizing the conference "Keeping History Above Water," which will take place in historic St. Augustine, Florida May 5-8, 2019. More information available here.
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