The Gang Signs Jake Arrieta
It has been awhile since anyone pegged Jake Arrieta for the kid in class that would get picked last (or near it). Yet here we are in mid-March, and the Phillies, finally realizing that they have, by Craig Edwardss measure, the second most payroll room in free agency of any team in 2018, picked up Arietta on Sunday. This signing, pending physical, says a lot about the Phillies. Arrieta might not take Philly back to the promised land in his time, but he sure is an upgrade, and more wins help the team for more than the immediate future.
FanGraphs spent some time this offseason wondering about the Phillies. When will they spend? Are they doing it wisely? Most recently we wondered what the heck they were waiting for. The NL East is the Nationals and then everyone else right now, but the Phillies don’t have to expect a division title to have reason to improve. Still, we had questions, y’all.
Some questions were about the legitimacy of how the Phillies chose to spend. (Philadelphia also added Carlos Santana this offseason, and he’s likely to decline by the time most people expect the Phillies to be serious contenders.) Arrieta might prolong that question. His deal is reportedly for a base of three years, with the potential to go up to five years and $135 million, and he’s a 32-year-old coming off a down season that features a few ticks off the radar gun.
A radar reading doesn’t erase any All-Star appearances or Cy Youngs, or even what could be considered the best half by a pitcher in baseball history. It also wouldn’t erase what that might mean to a team with mostly scraps for a rotation. On this side of 30, players tend to go in a certain direction, but even if Arietta does play to his 2.8 WAR projections, he likely won’t go low enough to not make the Phillies better.
In December, the Phillies were projected to have the third-worst record in the league. Now they sit five slots above that, inching closer to a .500 record and maybe even Wild Card contention. The Phillies can be not-the-worst this season, which is better than the alternative for the members of the 2018 free-agent class on whom the Phillies might look to spend the rest of their money.
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