Predictions…

Good morning dear reader & welcome to my world for another week. I had a meeting with a lovely chap this week & he was sourcing opinions on, shall we say, consolidating his work situation with four other similar organisations, with a view to benefits of scale & consequent operational savings. A very interesting topic given how in recent years we have seen considerable number of such mergers with what I suggest have varying degrees of success, or otherwise, although on some occassions there are obvious benefits.

If there is one lesson from our past, this often could be seen as not very good at thinking about the future. This is irrespective of our personal inclination toward optimism or pessimism. And it is independent of upbringing & education or political leanings. The problem with forecasting the future lies in the human habit of thinking which is deeply ingrained in us.

When we think of tomorrow, we imagine an amplified version of today. We expect continuation of trends we know, however in the modern world such prehistoric certainties are few. Change & disruption have become the norm. In a similar way, predictions for the end of work have been with us since at least the times of Karl Marx. John Maynard Keynes tried the same prediction in 1928 sketching a world of growing efficiencies which would allow the introduction of 15 hour work weeks. It did not happen. 1

In my own lifetime, I recall the panic surrounding the introduction of the personal computer for fear of making office workers redundant. To all those who made such a strong case ~ may I also remind them, another of their predictions ~ the paperless office. Enough said. Today, we find ourselves in just another of these situations in which the end of the world, or at least the end of work, is allegedly nigh.

This time is it Artificial Intelligence, or AI. This will make us all imminently redundant within the next few years. The old end-of-work rhetoric is being rehashed, however this time is different & forecast for the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. This is all scary, if you believe it. But then again, why would you?

If you fear AI, try meaningful conversation with those loquacious people from a technology App store. Then ask what they would do to fix the Auckland housing market. The most likely answer may be something like a weather report for the Hauraki Gulf. Even if artificial intelligence were as highly developed as their proponents believe, why would those made redundant idly sit by & do nothing?  2

If the experience of switchboard operators, like my mother  was once, & street sweepers are anything to go by, those dispatched by technology find other jobs. Like myself… Changes in our working world are happening all the time & often we do not even notice them. Just look through your old photo albums & see what shops we used the have in our cities. The photo shops, the department stores & large bank branches have been replaced by banking apps on-line, mobile phone stores, massage & beauty parlours.

And do not belittle the last two categories. They are symptomatic of a development we should expect if technological development continues. For it is precisely these personal services robots will never be able to fully replace, certainly not in aging societies.

So to all those doomsayers out there, let us join with Martin Luther. “Even if I knew tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree.” Or in the famous words of Bill Benny & R.E.M. “It’s the end of the world as we know it, & I feel fine.”

Thank you for taking the time to be with me once again. I hope my journey may encourage you also. This is Kenn Butler in Paradise, Nelson, with my best wishes for the week ahead. I look forward to being with you all again next weekend.
 

 
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