Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate).
The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro catchment inflows. The Risk Meter is currently set to normal.
Current Situation
Aggregate New Zealand storage increased over the last week and is at 88% of total storage, this is above the historical average (123% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 48% and 71% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 67% of total generation.
Hydro Storage Update
Controlled storage remains above average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were higher than the historical average for the time of the year and there was an increase in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were also higher than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have also increased.
The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $48 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is lower than prices experienced this time last year.
We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data
Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions
4 May 2018
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions
21 March 2018
Next Report
The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 22 May 2018.