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The stunning change of political fortunes of the past two weeks means only one thing: you make predictions as to what will happen in this year's midterm elections at your peril.
Two weeks ago, the Democrats seemed to be on the ascendancy and the Republicans on the ropes. The Trump policy of "zero tolerance" on immigration seemed to be blowing up in the GOP's face, with nearly every newspaper front page showing the heart wrenching photos of crying kids, apparently separated from their parents. Even with his executive order ending the family separation policy, it seemed clear the Republicans could pay a price for this in November.
Then came last week. A seeming Trump bucket list: The Supreme Court rules in favor of the Administration's Muslim travel ban. And Justice Anthony Kennedy announces he's quitting the Supreme Court, giving the president his second opportunity to move the court further to the right. But this one is more consequential than the last one. Trading Antonin Scalia for Neil Gorsuch was essentially a push, one conservative for another. This time, while Kennedy is certainly a conservative, he cast deciding votes on behalf of same-sex marriage, abortion rights and affirmative action. You can bet your bottom bitcoin that whomever Trump nominates -- a choice expected by July 9th -- it will not be someone who shares those views.
And with the filibuster gone, there's not much the Democrats can do to stop the nomination. There are liberal pipe dreams of either Susan Collins (R-ME) or Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voting no, which theoretically could kill the nomination, since it is a 50-49 GOP Senate (with John McCain unlikely to vote). The problem with that theory is (1) these Republican moderates often talk a good game but when push comes to shove they stick with their party, and (2) there is an equal likelihood that one or two Democrats running scared this year, perhaps a Heidi Heitkamp (ND) or a Joe Manchin (WV) or a Joe Donnelly (IN), could wind up voting for Trump's nominee. All three voted for Gorsuch, as did the two aforementioned Republicans.
If nothing else, Campaign 2018 just got more unpredictable. And more intense.
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