Good morning <<First Name>>

What yesterday proved, more than anything, was that the big yards are still sending out their very own "sighters" and the Nicholls/Walsh partnership came seriously unstuck at Chepstow. So, I imagine, did those punters who follow them blindly.

I recall having several discussion about this with one of the guys that man the booth for ATR and we were both in agreement that you would make more profit laying thier runners, than you ever will punting them. That is a policy I have adopted in recent seasons and I have done very well by it. Obviously you don't get involved in laying horses like Master Minded or Kauto Star (although this season might be different), but the novices are well worth taking on and yesterday was proof positive of that.
AITEEN THIRTYTHREE attracted some hefty bets but were was the form to back it up? The winner of that race, REVE DE SIVOLA, had far superior form in the book and I imagine those that availed themselves of the 11/8 thought Xmas had come early.
ALFIE SHERRIN, who did look like an improver and actually topped my own figures, had his bubble well and truly burst at 1-55 and was a ridiculous price to take that race. MEANUS DANDY got hammered in the 2-25, finishing no better than fourth in that race, with as many behind him as were in front as they crossed the line. By the time the 3-00 went off I had given up any hope of APOCAL producing the goods and, sure enough, despite again a Nicholls horse attracting all the money and him going off at 11/4 favourite, he was beaten long before he pulled up. Had punters worked it out yet? Nope. At 4-45 they decided to punt the yards ROYAL COLLONGES into 4/9 and again they got their fingers burned as that one struggled to finish third, beaten a country mile.

Horses from this yard go off at false prices. If they win, let them but always be on the lookout for one to beat them.

Yesterday saw the Ratings produce a couple of decent winners in the shape of LYSANDER (3/1) and TRITONVILLE LODGE (15/2) and, in addition, we got a couple beaten that the Ratings told us simply could not win, SPANISH CONQUEST and JIM BOBS GIRL.

CRAIGLANDS ran well for us in the 4-00 at Aintree, finishing 2nd @ 11/2 having opened up @ 8/1 on course. Watch out for him over further.

A busy day today with three meetings to trawl through and I've produced the following:

AINTREE 2-45

TENSION POINT....+8
IRISH RAPTOR....-3
SPRING BREEZE....-11
LEGALLY FAST....-17
MR WOODS....-20
FOURTY ACERS....-22

Not a race I'd be in a rush to punt in but my top pair are worth considering if you are thinking of getting involved. IRISH RAPTOR is probably the "safe" option. The top three are priced to dutch, too.

AINTREE 3-20

DEV....+18
LESLINGTAYLOR....+15
TRAMANTANO....+7
ASTARADOR....+3
SAPHIR DES BOIS....-3
THE DUKE'S SPEECH....-13

A top three dutch will hopefully produce a profit and a couple of 20/80's DEV and LESLINGTAYLOR look tasty, too. I like the look of DEV who will bomb off in front and, as we saw with MONET'S GARDEN yesterday, front runners that can jump are tough to peg back.

WINCANTON 2-25

SIMPLY BLUE....+16
MISS PHOEBE....+11
LATIN SCHOLAR....+9
DREAMS JEWEL....-7
YETHOLM....-9
HUMBLE OPINION....-14

The fly in the ointment is the king handicap debutante, HUMBLE OPINION. Jockey bookings suggest he's prefered over LATIN SCHOLAR, who rates higher because the form is there. I would just suggest a small 20/80 my top rated if you must get involved here.

WINCANTON 3-00

BOWLEAZE....+20
OUT THE BLACK....+10
CLASSIC CLOVER....+3
KILCREA ASLA....-6
FAIR POINT....-9
APOLLO CREED....-9

Trappy to say the least. My figures suggest we can lay the top weight but, as for punting this race, I'd just go dutch my top four at this point, with a teedly 20/80 OUT THE BLACK.

WINCANTON 3-35

COMMAND MARSHAL....+28
SO BRASH....-4
CLOUDIER....-12
OCEAN DU MOULIN....-21
VINTAGE FABRIC....-25
LOCAL PRESENT....-25

If my figures are right here then you just go straight win bet COMMAND MARSHAL and wait by the pay window!

TOWCESTER 2-00

ABERDEEN PARK....+19
BALLGALLEY BOB....-5
COLD MOUNTAIN....-9
MANDINGO CHIEF....-12
HARRIS BAY....-12
MANBOW....-20

Again, my figures have one miles clear. A 20/80 suggested plus, I'd be laying the paper favourite, FLEMISH INVADER.

TOWCESTER 3-10

AMMUNITION....+1
JACARADO....-8
ROOKERY LAD....-13
FAR MORE SERIOUS....-14
RONALD JACK....-17
FOLLOW YOUR HEART....-20

My top pair should dominate this so, a dutch, a reverse exacta and we'll see what comes back.

Best of luck if you are punting today

Kindest regards

Ron