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Former VP Joe Biden, 2019 | Photo: Gage Skidmore
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What’s In a Poll?
Biden has opened up a major lead over the president in the newest round of polls. Biden is up 55-40% in some polls, his largest lead so far. In the latest Fox numbers, voters view Biden as more capable of leading the country through the coronavirus (51-34%), the economy (44-43%) and race relations (52-31%). None of these numbers have changed significantly in the last month, but none have gone in Trump’s favor either. The coming weeks will determine if this is an inflection point or the continuation of Trump’s decline.
But can we trust the polls? In an interview with Fox News anchor Chris Wallace Sunday, Trump denied that he was losing in the polls. When Wallace revealed the Fox polling numbers, the president called them “fake polls,” referring to the disparity of Democrat and Republican voters in some polls. Who’s being surveyed is an important factor; Biden’s lead is cut by a third among those surveyed who plan to vote in the election. The president also referenced the failure of pollsters in 2016 to predict the election. On the day of the election, not a single poll had Trump within 3 points of Clinton. Trump and many of his supporters have not forgotten that. Aggregate polling proved to be an inadequate measure of what would happen in the electoral college.
In the midst of all the confusion surrounding the coronavirus, polls and statistics are proving to be a shaky guide to what’s actually happening. They show social sentiment more than anything else, which is proving to be an unreliable guide to reality. The significant upshot from the latest round of data is that it’s getting to be extremely unpopular to support Trump publicly, but this too has an underside.
In 2016, one of the big surprises was how different the exit polls were from the way people actually voted. If anything, this is truer now than it was then. The social cost of being a Trump supporter, even in an anonymous survey, all but ensures that the data won't be accurate. There are some, and this number is impossible to know, who will vote for Trump and never tell anyone. In 2016, many in this group said they would vote for Biden when asked but voted for Trump at the ballot box. Polling cannot account for this group, and I wonder if it has grown since 2016.
The numbers among evangelicals bear out this phenomenon. A June Pew study found that 59% of Christians surveyed said they disapproved of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, but 55% of this same group said they would vote for him. Trump’s support is still strongest among evangelicals, 59% of whom approve of the President (down from 64% 6 months ago) but 82% of whom plan to vote for him (up from 77% in 2016).
This does not mean the President is right about the data, it means we simply do not know how people are going to vote when the time comes. That’s as true in the President’s internal polls as it is in the media’s polls. This data is useful, but it depends on what you take away from it. Here’s what might be the most interesting stat in the Fox data, when asked whether or not they think Trump will win in 2020 people were split 50/50: 45% said yes, 45% said no, 10% said they didn’t know.
Actions, Plans, and Action Plans
What are the candidates actually doing? This is the most important factor in the final hundred days leading up to the election. You don’t have to look at polling data to understand that the President has lost support in the last few months. Last week he demoted his 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale back down to digital operations director in favor of Bill Stepien a top advisor in 2016. Jason Miller has rejoined the campaign as has Michael Glassner, and Jared Kushner appears to be at the helm.
In terms of strategy, several Republicans have called for the president to return to the issues that won him the White House in 2016. Victor Davis Hanson argues that Trump needs to defend America against the anti-American mobs of the left, put pressure on China, and stand in the gap between the American working class and liberal elites. This means staying on message. Aaron Blake lists four factors that will help the president in November; an opening on the Supreme Court, undecided voters, Biden’s gaffs, and the way he handled the coronavirus. Trump won in 2016 because of his vision to bring jobs back to America, build a great economy, regulate immigration, and stop the tide of political correctness and government bureaucracy.
One of the president’s central strategies is to get back to normal. He wants to hold rallies, he’s holding fundraisers, and he’s ready to be out among the people again. He’s got to get the economy moving in the right direction. He’s got to remind his base of what he’s endured from the press and the establishment and assure them he still has the power to change Washington.
Biden’s strategy could not be more different. He gives very few interviews, rarely leaves his house, and has sought to build a loose coalition between the center and far left. While Democrats may be warming to Biden’s basement strategy, the clock is ticking on how long isolation will help the former VP. Chris Wallace gave the president a tough interview and he responded well to it. Voters are beginning to wonder if Biden is ever going to be asked a tough question? The strategy to let Trump beat Trump may be promising, but it won’t work if the country re-opens and Biden can’t return to normal life.
Right now, Joe Biden’s most important move is to navigate the widening divide in the Democratic party. If he wins in 2020, it will likely be determined by two factors, the public hatred for Trump and an unsteady coalition between progressives and centrists. Biden’s campaign is straddling a fault line, much as the GOP was in 2016. In the primaries, Biden was attacked for being too centrist, too boring, too old, and for being too much like Obama. Things have changed. When Bernie Sanders began to take a commanding lead, the party brass reeled things back in, betting that Biden could solidify the base and accommodate the progressive left. That’s essentially what he’s done.
In May, Biden formed a slate of task forces combining Obama era democrats and younger progressives. Since then, his policy proposals have straddled the two groups. Biden supports Black Lives Matter but he does not support defunding the police. He’s expressed support for racial reconciliation but has distanced himself from more radical proposals. He’s going to re-enter the Paris Climate Accord, but he’s also saying he’ll be tough on China. He’s for expanding Obamacare, but against Medicare for All. He’s criticized the President’s handling of the coronavirus, but he released a plan to re-open schools. He’s a globalist, but his foreign policy platform is eerily close to “America First.”
He’s going to be vulnerable on the economy. His climate plans are drifting toward the Green New Deal as he’s enlisted AOC and John Kerry to co-chair his climate task force. He released a joint policy proposal with Bernie Sanders last week that includes universal kindergarten, expanded social security, and elimination of cash bail. Although he has not come out with a universal ban on fracking, he wants to eliminate all new permits.
This may curb attempts to paint Biden as an accommodationist to the far left. David Brooks wrote a column this week proclaiming Biden as “not ideological,” a candidate for the working man, non-elite, and the candidate who will finally show the country what “radical centrism looks like.” Even the Washington Post editorial board thinks this is naive. Biden has been in Washington for almost 50 years. He may not have an Ivy League degree and he may not elicit a Hillary-level response, but he’s not champion of the working man, and he’s not running on the way he governed just four years ago.
Biden is running to the left of Obama. Three determinative questions for the Biden camp will be: How far will he have to go to reign in the progressive branch of the party? Does he have the capacity to campaign? How many moderates can he win in the process?
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Study Philippians
When Paul wrote the letter to the Philippians, he saw an opportunity for the Gospel in a difficult time. In this series, Terry Feix walks through the unique opportunity we have to see our world changed by the Gospel during these unprecedented times.
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The Cares Act, 2020 | Photo: The White House
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The Right Amount of Aid
Congress is back in session today and coronavirus stimulus is the first order of business. One of the central issues is the additional $600 per week close to 25 million Americans have been receiving with unemployment benefits that expire at the end of the month. The president is pushing for a payroll tax cut and liability protection for employers. Republicans may be split over whether or not to spend any more money on stimulus, in addition to the $2.2 trillion already included in the Cares Act. The extra aid is costing the U.S. government over $16 billion per week.
McConnell is expected to introduce a $1 trillion aid package that will chart a middle path, extending additional unemployment aid and covering business liability, in an attempt to continue to help those who are unemployed and also incentivize people who can return to work. The House passed a bill in May that would extend unemployment aid through January 2021 and cost nearly $3 trillion. The President has said he will veto the bill if it passes the Senate. Several of Trump’s allies have pushed the president to do away with extra aid.
This is the central issue: how do you respond to the needs of those who have lost their jobs because of the coronavirus and still incentivize people to go back to work? There are real needs across America; people faced with bills and rent payments they cannot pay, some who are looking for jobs and cannot find them, others who cannot return to work because of the number of cases in their areas. Then there are also some who do not want to return to work. They’re making more not working than they were working. Additionally, some have argued that the extra aid is an important factor in consumer spending, one of the key metrics for economic recovery.
This crisis is revealing the boundaries of social engineering. Incentivizing 25 million Americans to stay on government aid is not a workable strategy. Democratic lawmakers who are pushing for boundless government spending are imperiling the next generation of Americans, their own children and grandchildren, to secure their momentary political power. It’s not capitulating to Trump to recognize that America needs to reopen to rebuild the economy and to rebuild peoples’ lives. The question lawmakers face is how to provide the right level of aid for the right level of reopening.
45 prominent Twitter accounts were hacked this week and used in a bitcoin scam. The accounts included Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Elon Musk. The scammers used software that looked like it was changing the users’ password to gain access to their accounts. Once in control, the hackers sent tweets asking for money sent to a bitcoin account and promising to give back twice as much later. After just a few hours, over 500 people had sent a total of $121,000 to the scammers’ bitcoin account. Twitter temporarily suspended all verified (blue check) accounts to get the situation under control. Twitter says attackers downloaded data from up to eight non-verified accounts, sparking inquiries over Twitter’s privacy policies and the security of user data.
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Best Reads:
“Reformation Theology in the Hands of a Servant” - John Piper, Desiring God
This week the church lost one of the giants of evangelical theology, J.I. Packer. If you’ve ever read Knowing God or The Quest for Godliness or if you’ve been impacted by the Puritans, you’ve felt the influence of J.I. Packer. Piper narrates the profound impact Packer had on his life and highlights his tremendous grasp of the practicality of theology. Justin Taylor’s tribute chronicles his extraordinary life and ministry. I really enjoyed Sam Storms’ essay remembering Packer’s humility and integrity. I’m reminded of Paul’s words in Philippians 2:29, “honor such men.”
“John Lewis Risked His Life for Justice” - The Editorial Board, The New York Times
One of the last of the original Civil Rights reformers passed away this week. John Lewis marched with Dr. King, orchestrated the Freedom Rides, and spent his life fighting against Jim Crow and for racial reconciliation in America. With everything going on in the country right now, it’s important to be reminded of the progress that has been made in America and the courageous men and women who gave their lives for it. Lewis was one of those men. This is one of many great tributes. Check out others from the WSJ, CNN, and CT.
“Political Wisdom and the Limits of Expertise” - Jennifer Frey, Breaking Ground
Our confidence in expertise is getting shakier by the day during the coronavirus. Why have there been so many competing statistics, so much contradictory advice, and so much confusion on how to limit the spread of the virus? Frey makes a few helpful points here. First, experts in one area are not necessarily experts in every area. Politicians are not epidemiologists and vice versa. Second, the common good depends on the exercise of character and virtue. Third, political leadership is largely a measure of trust and responsibility: “It is the role of experts to bring that reality before those politicians and citizens making their own prudential judgments, so that it can be fairly weighed; so that that evil can be balanced with other goods that may be accomplished.” Important reminders.
“God’s Mission to Rescue a Prostitute” - Barbaranne Kelly, The Gospel Coalition
The story of Rahab is one of the most fascinating stories in Scripture, partly because there’s no reason God had to save her! It’s a reminder that God is merciful and gracious, no matter who you are and what you’ve done. God orchestrated the events surrounding the fall of Jericho to save Rahab who wasn’t a Jew and wasn’t important by any worldly standard. That’s what he’s done for each of us in Christ.
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