Highlights
Monitored:During March, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 250 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1.5 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands during 6th-7th April. From 8th-10th, daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central islands Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| 19th March |
Up to 20 mm in the southern islands. |
| 20th March |
Up to 10 mm in the central islands. |
| 21st – 31st March |
No Rainfall. |
| 1st April |
Up to 5 mm in the central islands. |
| 2nd April |
No Rainfall. |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In March, the whole country received up to 75 mm of total rainfall, which is normal for the season.
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Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to IMD GFS dailyrainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands during 6 th-7 th April. From 8 th-10 th, daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central islands
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - March 19, 2020)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
1.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Mar 18-21; in Phase 3 from Mar 22-26; and in Phase 4 from Mar 27-31. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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