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The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC) has issued the region's first comprehensive analysis of the forecasted impact on COVID-19 on Tampa Bay's economy.
The damage could be significant.
The report estimates, due to declines in consumer spending, that:
- the region will lose 218,000 jobs (a 10.6% decline);
- residents will lose $20.9 billion in personal income (a 10.6% decline);
- and our Gross Regional Product will drop by $20.98 billion (an 11.7% decline).
These initial estimates will, over time, be measured relative to official data, but this forecast gives us some immediate insight into the spill-over effects of decreased consumer spending on jobs and other broad economic indicators, due to necessary social distancing and safer at home regulations.
Keep reading for more information on the steps that the TBRPC took to reach these dramatic conclusions.
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First, the TBRPC analyzed how the coronavirus, and subsequent restrictions on activities, have altered spending patterns, creating clear winners and losers across consumer-facing industries. The figure below shows the national change in spending for the week ending April 1, 2020, compared to one year earlier.
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Warehouse clubs, home improvement, supermarkets, and general merchandise and e-commerce (such as Amazon and Walmart) are some of the larger industries that avoided a decline in sales. Smaller in revenue, but seeing larger increases in spending, are video streaming, food delivery and online grocers. On the other hand, many more industries saw their sales slip, many by 25% or more, versus the same week last year, led by lodging, airlines and movie theaters.
Source: Earnest Research, 2020 credit card expenditures, survey sample data. New York Times, April 11, 2020. |
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Second, the TBRPC calibrated the national model for use in Florida and Tampa Bay, using assumptions from our economic behavior during the Great Recession. The chart below, created from data in the report, shows the economic “shocks” used to estimate the economic impact of COVID-19 due to changes in consumer spending.
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Source: Adapted from Goldman Sachs, 2020. TBRPC, 2020.
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Finally, with these assumptions, and modeling the ripple effect of these shocks, the TBRPC estimated significant impacts for Tampa Bay and Florida.
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In each metric, the six-county region modeled as Tampa Bay (Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco and Pinellas) accounts for 16% to 17% of the overall statewide effect.
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For the purpose of the TBRPC report, the region modeled as “Tampa Bay” includes Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco and Pinellas counties.
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Data and charts, with exceptions noted, are from the TBRPC report: The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tampa Bay Area and Florida: A Preliminary Economic Impact Assessment, April 2020.
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About the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
The TBRPC supports local government initiatives and projects with planning services and economic analysis throughout the West Central Florida counties of Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco and Pinellas. Economic analysis services are provided through TBRPC’s Tampa Bay Economic Development District and the Regional Economic Analysis Program. TBRPC uses state-of-the-art computable general equilibrium and input-output models to assist its partner agencies in assessing the impacts of potential job creating projects and investment, as well as the economic analysis of environmental and public policy issues.
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